for longer range forcasts I prefer the model maps found at weatherunderground.com (
www.wunderground.com)
this link
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is to the model maps page i referenced. It shows the predicted water vapor energy and pressure systems over the continent.
My interpretation:
what it shows runs through sunday afternoon at this point. It highlights the energy from ernesto getting spread out as it A.) travels over land, and B.) throughout this weekend runs into a high pressure ridge that will sit over quebec.
Forcasting for next week will be tough at this point because the key factors into your weather outlook is the dominance of that high pressure over quebec to quell and eventually push out the center of the low formally known as ernesto. Granted this may be tough as Ernesto was a pretty strong low and may force out the canadian high to the maritimes. at this point anything may happen, right now, there are strong easterly winds coming in off the atlantic that can also fuel the ernesto low with moisture (fragment of the stationary front that brought us this crappy weather pattern for the last few days)
Depending on the placement of the upper level ridge in Canada to keep the storm south of your hike and the coastal track of the ernesto low will placate your weather for next week. play it safe and bring rain gear, maybe put off plans until you know for sure, check the link again on friday when forcast range will highlight your vacation week.
no im not a meteorologist, I just study it for fun, though I did stay at a holiday inn express last night
