The Official 1/15 (MLK Day) Storm Discussion Thread

[Greg]

Originally Posted by ALLSKIING

Welcome powderfreak! Please continue here.

http://forums.alpinezone.com/12724-m...on-thread.html

I think Scott's post deserved to be part of this this thread vs. just a redirect, so I moved it in here...

[ALLSKIING]

Originally Posted by Greg

I think Scott's post deserved to be part of this this thread vs. just a redirect, so I moved it in here...

My bad I acted before I fully read the post.

[ajl50]

Scott is the best forecaster around for the north east. Really talented and takes his time and gets his forecasts right. HOWEVER I think he, like all forecasters, would like to take a mea culpa on the 12/26 wiff.
So for him to come back with this forecast after the last big one busted means something.
Great to have link or whatever...

[2knees]

powderfreak, thanks for taking the time to post that. Its absolutely awesome. please feel free to drop some more beta in here from time to time.

[Marc]

I will be outside walking backwards shouting "WONS" repeatedly.

[loafer89]

The blocking ridge of high pressure looks to remain in place for at least the next week out west, keeping the cold air coming in to our area from Canada. At least all of New England will have excellent snowmaking weather next week.

[powderfreak]

Originally Posted by ajl50

Scott is the best forecaster around for the north east. Really talented and takes his time and gets his forecasts right. HOWEVER I think he, like all forecasters, would like to take a mea culpa on the 12/26 wiff.
So for him to come back with this forecast after the last big one busted means something.
Great to have link or whatever...

You're right. Man did that one hurt. I forecast for myself and share the details...I went to the Adirondacks where I thought it would be ground zero and we got 4" followed by a lot of freezing rain then plain rain. It was ulgy. I was thinkin 8-12" there, too.

Anyway, feeling pretty comfortable about this one though there's still a significant spread in the temp possibilities. Albany and adjacent areas of southern VT, northern Berkshires, and even the Catskills could be the battle ground if this goes any further south. Thinking max snowfall is on a latitude boundary of Rutland and the US/Canadian border after viewing tonight's model data. Will be interesting to see how the NWS offices around the region handle this in their overnight discussions and forecasts.

I've been asked several times about the storm possibly near the 20th and it is a possibility though small chance this far out. I'm certainly focusing on the upcoming impact of this next storm. With that said, arctic air will be in place so snowmaking will be able to run 24/7 all the way to West Virginia next week. And its going to be the good snowmaking that's done at 15F during the daytime with crews not needing a lot of compressed air to tap the full water supplies. Look for a lot more guns going than we've seen all season as the air compressors will not be limiting them as much anymore.

[TwinTips21]

Scott- I noticed the possibility of a few storms coming up the coast throughtout the next two weeks. When looking at the gfs runs, the storms tend be south and east but is it true that the gfs usually has a south-east bias?

[bvibert]

Thanks for taking the time to post that here Scott!

[powderfreak]

Originally Posted by TwinTips21

Scott- I noticed the possibility of a few storms coming up the coast throughtout the next two weeks. When looking at the gfs runs, the storms tend be south and east but is it true that the gfs usually has a south-east bias?

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EDIT: Mods, sorry about the graphic size...its just the way it is on the website. I wasn't sure if it would fit the normal text box or expand it but it looks like it expanded it. Sorry for that but I wanted to post those model snowfall differences to illustrate the sharp cut-off to the south. I know it is extremely annoying to read a post that you have to scroll left and right to read.
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Yes, it is to some extent. That's also the reason why I don't buy quite the southward push of the GFS with this storm on Monday. If we were to verify with the GFS, the significant snowfall would be pushed 50 miles south of where I have outlined above. In other words, it would look like this map, which is the GFS's version of snowfall accumulation's for Monday's storm. You see most of VT and NH are covered in 8" or greater snowfall. The Green Mountain spine is easily seen with the 10" gradient stretching from Jay Peak to Mount Snow.



Now, I don't think this is correct but I'm sure many would love to check out this site:
http://www.wxcaster.com//regional_snowfall.htm
Its easily to understand if you take a few minutes and scroll through it. There are multiple models (NAM, WRF, and GFS) and they are all run on different grid sizes, with the GFS being the largest. The local WRF and NAM have smaller grid sizes and therefore can pick out differences in the topography better. The NAM has the main snow belt staying at Killington northward while the GFS would crush southern VT. Here's the NAM run this morning:



Now, this is only through 12z/7amEST on Monday with snowfall continuing through the day on Monday. Looking back towards the Chicago area, you can see a larger are of 8-14" of snow and that's likely what the max zone will see (no changes to my forecast, 6-12" with the chance of slightly higher in the maximum snowfall region). But you can easily pick out how this model has the fire-hose of snow a few counties northward of the GFS.

The battle zone is going to be in that latitudinal area with a sharp cut-off as you head south. With one American model showing 0" of snow for a place like Mount Snow and another American model showing 10", that's a tough forecast. What happens in the Plains over the next day will be vital to seeing if areas further south, even into Albany's Capital District and the RT2 corridor in MA, can get appreciable snow. But remember, what you're not seeing on those charts is ice. That sharp snowfall gradient would include a mix with ice for those who see less than 6" on the southern end, and significant icing near where the 1" or less snowfall area is and up to 50 miles south of that. Makes sense right?

So I have a pretty decent idea on my overall forecast, and it remains unchanged from my first post. Band of 6-12" is going to stretch from west to east across the northeast at some latitude. Just south of there, a sharp gradient will exist with snow/sleet mix, then south of that sleet/freezing rain, then further south significant (possibly damaging) freezing rain. Personally, a few inches of sleet isn't that bad as it provides a really dense base but can make roads extremely dangerous (more so than freezing rain, contrary to popular belief). With today's salting, they can raise the road temp enough so rain doesn't freezing on pavement, at least in areas that see regular traffic while 1-2" of sleet is like driving on ice marbles. Freezing rain has the highest impact on bringing down branches and causing scattered power outages as trees get weighed down (especially the evergreens).

Since Stowe is my home mountain, that's where I'll be heading, but I'm getting this feeling that this is going to be either a Killington special or a Sugarbush/MRG special. Personally, I'd head to the Mad River Valley to be sure, but Gore Mountain in the Adirondacks would also be advisable. The reason I'm also saying the more western mountains might get better snow is that in my experience, while the White Mountain resorts in NH and also Sunday River/Sugarloaf in Maine will see 6"+, this is not a coastal storm, the best moisture is going to have to move across the Adirondacks, then Greens, before it gets to NH and ME. Some Atlantic moisture could work its way into the storm as it nears the Gulf of Maine after tracking through southern/central New England, so it could all even out. With nor'easters I usually keep the heaviest snowfall from the Green Mountain spine eastward and favor Cannon, Wildcat, and Sugarloaf...but with this sort of situation I'd favor the Green Mountain spine westward.

Remember, this is mostly a Monday storm and the best skiing will likely be on Tuesday after it can get groomed out (if that's your thing) or on Tuesday morning when Patrols can check out the new snow and drop ropes. Nothing wrong with storm skiing on Monday (heck, I'll be out there), but I'm also planning on skiing on Tuesday as that's when you might see trail numbers increase.

Wind does not look to be a large factor with this storm so I see no impact to lift operations (ie. wind holds so your left with a day of skiing the beginner double like we often see at the big resorts during storms).

I'm heading off to take a few runs on Mount Mansfield but will be back with more this evening. Take care! Hope this all isn't too vague, and let me know if you want more meteorology talk or just my thoughts in plain English.