The Official 1/15 (MLK Day) Storm Discussion Thread

powderfreak · Jan 12, 2007, 9:38 AM

Also, if you don't have this site bookmarked already, you might want to:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml

Its the Hydro Prediction Center's snow/ice probability forecasts and they generally do a good job from what I've seen...though usually conservative as they are mostly forecasting for populated regions like the NWS offices. They dont really consider, nor forecast for, what will happen above 2,000ft as very few people live above that elevation in the northeast.
I use this stuff for more of a tool to forecast as you need to sort of read between the lines with them...use the boundaries as a general idea of where heavy snow will fall.

But I like that their forecast is generally in line with mine as far as the zone for max snowfall. This is also through only 12z or 7am on Monday so they have a low probability of 4" or greater by that time. Since they only forecast 3 days out, by 5pm tonight they'll have the snowfall probabilities out for 7pm on Monday which will give a much better idea as that 12hr period is when the max snow will fall.

Just another illustration of where you might want to put yourself for Monday/Tuesday:

**Greg** · Jan 12, 2007, 9:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by powderfreak

******************************
EDIT: Mods, sorry about the graphic size...its just the way it is on the website. I wasn't sure if it would fit the normal text box or expand it but it looks like it expanded it. Sorry for that but I wanted to post those model snowfall differences to illustrate the sharp cut-off to the south. I know it is extremely annoying to read a post that you have to scroll left and right to read.
******************************

No worries. I uploaded the two images to our gallery and re-embedded the smaller version. The gallery will auto resize to 1024 with a 800 pixel intermediary. Feel free to use your member gallery or simply use the file attachment feature.

Thanks for continuing with the updates, Scott!

**Greg** · Jan 12, 2007, 9:54 AM

Based on Scott's confidence that this thing will go down, I promoted this thread to "official storm discussion thread" status...

**ALLSKIING** · Jan 12, 2007, 10:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greg

Based on Scott's confidence that this thing will go down, I promoted this thread to "official storm discussion thread" status...

I think this is the first one of the year

**Greg** · Jan 12, 2007, 10:45 AM

The MRG Weather Blog supports a lot of what Scott says:

http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/

It's coming, folks!

nelsapbm · Jan 12, 2007, 11:05 AM

I feel a case of ski-itis coming on....May have to call in on Tuesday!

Grassi21 · Jan 12, 2007, 11:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nelsapbm

I feel a case of ski-itis coming on....May have to call in on Tuesday!

I'm thinking the same thing...

**JimG.** · Jan 12, 2007, 11:37 AM

Hey hey, welcome aboard powderfreak!

Scott does a great job with his forecasts...I think mostly because he forecasts for his own skiing.

Really glad to see you here.

Sheik Yerbouti · Jan 12, 2007, 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nelsapbm

I feel a case of ski-itis coming on....May have to call in on Tuesday!

Knew I was going to be sick on wednesday sometime back in Dec..

**thetrailboss** · Jan 12, 2007, 11:55 AM

FWIW WDEV in VT is saying maybe, MAYBE 10-12" of snow!!!!!!!!

Jan 12, 2007, 9:54 AM	#23 (permalink)
Greg Nassahegan, CT: 9/20 Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: Thomaston, CT Posts: 21,127	Based on Scott's confidence that this thing will go down, I promoted this thread to "official storm discussion thread" status... __________________ Greg 2007-08, 2006-07, 2005-06, 2004-05 Life's too short for warm up runs.

Jan 12, 2007, 10:45 AM	#25 (permalink)
Greg Nassahegan, CT: 9/20 Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: Thomaston, CT Posts: 21,127	The MRG Weather Blog supports a lot of what Scott says: http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/ It's coming, folks! __________________ Greg 2007-08, 2006-07, 2005-06, 2004-05 Life's too short for warm up runs.

Jan 12, 2007, 11:55 AM	#30 (permalink)
thetrailboss Paddling...... Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Now Playing at Sugarbush and Burke. Posts: 10,560	FWIW WDEV in VT is saying maybe, MAYBE 10-12" of snow!!!!!!!! __________________ Live, Ski, or Die! Trailboss' Ski Videos now on YouTube! Trailboss' Photo Albums. 66 days for the 2007-2008 ski season!!!! 40 of the 48 New Hampshire 4,000 Footers Completed and Counting!

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Jan 12, 2007, 9:38 AM	#21 (permalink)
powderfreak Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 215	Also, if you don't have this site bookmarked already, you might want to: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml Its the Hydro Prediction Center's snow/ice probability forecasts and they generally do a good job from what I've seen...though usually conservative as they are mostly forecasting for populated regions like the NWS offices. They dont really consider, nor forecast for, what will happen above 2,000ft as very few people live above that elevation in the northeast. I use this stuff for more of a tool to forecast as you need to sort of read between the lines with them...use the boundaries as a general idea of where heavy snow will fall. But I like that their forecast is generally in line with mine as far as the zone for max snowfall. This is also through only 12z or 7am on Monday so they have a low probability of 4" or greater by that time. Since they only forecast 3 days out, by 5pm tonight they'll have the snowfall probabilities out for 7pm on Monday which will give a much better idea as that 12hr period is when the max snow will fall. Just another illustration of where you might want to put yourself for Monday/Tuesday:

Jan 12, 2007, 11:05 AM	#26 (permalink)
nelsapbm Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Burlington area, VT Posts: 413	I feel a case of ski-itis coming on....May have to call in on Tuesday!

Jan 12, 2007, 11:37 AM	#28 (permalink)
JimG. MRG-20th hole Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: Hopewell Jct., NY Posts: 6,100	Hey hey, welcome aboard powderfreak! Scott does a great job with his forecasts...I think mostly because he forecasts for his own skiing. Really glad to see you here.