The Official 1/15 (MLK Day) Storm Discussion Thread

[klrskiah]

thanks for the response pow!, still some variables i guess, hopefully by tomorrow it will be more clear, but im still at sugarloaf regardless so i guess it dosent really matter, it was a shock this morning to see the models shafting us big time.... but i honestly wasn't surprised, i sure hope the euro is right. the way this winter is going it'll probably bomb out in the gulf of maine, i mean it seems like every storm has flipped at like 48 hours out! hey i'll gladly take 3-6 inches, anything really at this point....

think lots of

[ajl50]

if tuesday = powerday then being stuck in hoboken = frozen turd.

[powderfreak]

Originally Posted by klrskiah

thanks for the response pow!, still some variables i guess, hopefully by tomorrow it will be more clear, but im still at sugarloaf regardless so i guess it dosent really matter, it was a shock this morning to see the models shafting us big time.... but i honestly wasn't surprised, i sure hope the euro is right. the way this winter is going it'll probably bomb out in the gulf of maine, i mean it seems like every storm has flipped at like 48 hours out! hey i'll gladly take 3-6 inches, anything really at this point....

think lots of

Yeah, man...take what you can get! That's the motto of this winter...heck, I dont even really care how much it snows, just as long as its not a 50F rain again. I'm more excited to have a winter storm just to track and forecast as this winter has been tough for skiers and riders, but us winter weather forecasters are also bored out of our minds; we wait all summer for the ability to forecast something more interesting than rain and so far we've got not much to go with. Its another reason why I think so many people (myself included) busted badly on the Dec26 storm because we all jumped the gun and were just too excited all around. This will be the real deal for someone.

-Scott

[Greg]

Thanks again for the continued updates, Scott!

[ctenidae]

NOAA forecasts seem to be trending more towards the NCP side. Hope they're just being conservative.

[KingM]

For Southern NE Ctenidae? We're still showing all snow in the Mad River Valley, at least, although the high temp is about 30, so adding a few degrees as you went south would change this over, unfortunately.

We got some NCP last night and that damned green grass poked through again.

It's now snowing lightly, although it hasn't yet started to stick. I imagine it's sticking nicely on the mountain, though. Hopefully, we'll see white again by this evening.

[2knees]

Originally Posted by ctenidae

NOAA forecasts seem to be trending more towards the NCP side. Hope they're just being conservative.

huh?

TEMP PROFILE SUPPORTS SNOW PRECIP TYPE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...
EXCEPT RUTLAND/WINDSOR PORTION. PROXIMITY OF WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR
COULD LEAD TO SOME SLEET FORMATION...SO WENT WITH SNOW/SLEET MIX.

00Z NAM WAS AN OUTLIER IN TRYING TO RETURN THE SURFACE FRONT AND
RESULTING WARMER AIR AND MIXED PRECIP FURTHERN NORTH. HOWEVER
GFS...ENSEMBLES...AND ECMWF ALL SUPPORT FURTHER SOUTH TRACK. I
BELIEVE THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH IS UNDERDONE BY THE
NAM...AND WILL ACT TO KEEP COLDER TEMPS AND STATIONARY FRONT
SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH.

So it sleets in rutland at 600 feet but it sounds like even killington, which sits roughly at 2000 (bear base and above) should be primarily snow. And north of that, no mention of any ncp.

[adamti91]

Here's the latest from CBS 6 [WRGB] out of Albany for today through Sunday night. Doesn't look good for the Catskills or massachusetts, but northern Vermont and the Adirondacks look like they could benefit from this. Hopefully temp. outlooks will drop and the snow line will move south below Ulster county.



No map for Monday yet, but here's what CBS 6 meteorologist Mike Tamas has to say:

"Monday: A mixture of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain throughout the region.
Precipitation could be heavy at times.
Significant snow and ice accumulations possible.
High: Near 30°"

You can check the map and forecast for updates here, and I will try to post updates as they come.

ABC 10 [WTEN], also out of Albany, has similar projections through Sunday afternoon:



You can see WTEN's weather page here.

Hopefully both stations will have maps for Monday up sometime today.

[ctenidae]

I was looking as far north as Lincoln, NH last night, and it looked like a mix of rain/snow, leaning more towards rain. They changed it overnight, though, to a much happier:

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL TAP THE COLD AIR TO THE NORTH AND BRING
SNOW DURING MONDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE MOST
PRECIPITATION TO FALL OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WITH 6 INCHES OR MORE OF
SNOW POSSIBLE...LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH.

[Greg]

Looks like those of us in SNE and SNY are going to just have to take one for the team. At least NNE/ADKs will get some decent snow.