The Official 1/15 (MLK Day) Storm Discussion Thread

[Greg]

The forecasts have been steadily improving and trending colder. Looking mostly snowy on Monday in the north country now. Feel free to discuss.

[RIDEr]

The latest (which changes by the hour) for the Catskills is a mix on Saturday, cloudy on Sunday and rain on Monday. I'll be spending Saturday at Belleayre... I was hoping to spend it at Plattekill, but they're not guaranteeing more than 3 trails open top to bottom.

[Greg]

Originally Posted by RIDEr

The latest (which changes by the hour) for the Catskills is a mix on Saturday, cloudy on Sunday and rain on Monday. I'll be spending Saturday at Belleayre... I was hoping to spend it at Plattekill, but they're not guaranteeing more than 3 trails open top to bottom.

I'm still seeing a mix Sat-Mon at Hunter:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/forecast/Map...=131&map.y=153

It'll be close. I'll be at Hunter on Monday regardless.

[2knees]

Brad Field, during the 6 o'clock news, (nbc affiliate WVIT) was predicting it to turn to snow even here in connecticut,

but brad field is about as accurate as accuweather. i was shocked to hear him say it though.

[awf170]

Forcast for the base of Wildcat.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/forecast/Map...=166&map.y=170

Looks okay I guess...

[powderfreak]

Alright folks, trying to put together the pieces to get a column together
and while I want to wait till Saturday for a final forecast (48hrs lead time
is what I like for a final product), I'm trying to get something together
for a post tomorrow for those coming up over the holiday weekend. Still
several details to work out, track and strength of the arctic air the main
problems at this juncture. Thus, precip type is what I'm trying to sort
out. I feel the total liquid precip for each area will be the easy part but
where it snows, sleets, ices, or rains is a tough call. Here's my prelim
thinking and we are talking mostly a Monday event and possibly stretching
into Monday night. Full effects will likely not be felt till Tuesday
morning at the mountains so if you're looking for powder, have MLK day off,
maybe watch this thing and make back up plans to call in sick on Tuesday if
it snows a foot:

My gut is telling me the 6" southern boundary runs from Gore Mountain to
Killington to Sunday River with sleet mixed in. Best shot at a 10-12"
snowfall would include Whiteface, SB, MRG, Bolton, Stowe, Smuggs, Jay,
Cannon, and Sugarloaf. Those should mix with sleet for a time with the
exception of Whiteface, Jay, and Sugarloaf which might be far enough north
to avoid the warm nose aloft when the low approaches. Personal experience
would lead me to believe the Green Mountain spine resorts see highest
snowfall especially if the low deepens as it passes. Model QPF might be low
but NNW flow behind the low can keep mod snow going for several hours along
the spine after deeper moisture has left the region. Another thing is some
of the GFS panels have been showing ripe conditions for some Champlain
Valley convergence behind the system...but haven't checked any lake
parameters for enhancement into northern Addison County (Sugarbush/MRG region).
Either way, I think the northern spine picks up a couple more inches than modeled QPF would make
one believe.

Possibly significant icing occurs in the Saratoga/Lake George region of NY,
Mohawk Valley, northern Capital District, southern VT, northern Berkshires
west through the northern MA border and into southern NH. Someone's going
to see marginally damaging ice out of this.

-Scott

ps: My weather column is located at...posts are irregular and correlated to snowfall chances...higher the chance of decent snow, higher the chance I'll be posting regularly.
http://www.firsttracksonline.com/ind...catid=&topic=9

[ALLSKIING]

Welcome powderfreak! Please continue here.

http://forums.alpinezone.com/12724-m...on-thread.html

[ALLSKIING]

Originally Posted by awf170

Forcast for the base of Wildcat.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/forecast/Map...=166&map.y=170

Looks okay I guess...

Just ok?? Thats the best it has looked all season!

[ALLSKIING]

I will be at Jiminy Sun afternoon and night and then Mt Snow Monday.

[SKIQUATTRO]

Great post Scott....any long range speculations for the 20th weekend in the Stowe/Smuggs area?? Thought I saw a rumor of a potential Nor'easter for that time frame....