The Official 3/2 Storm Discussion Thread

[Tin Woodsman]

Originally Posted by awf170

The sleet is going to hit everywhere. Just watch. You might be able to avoid it at Sugarloaf, Saddleback, and Jay, but I still wouldn't be surprised if they got some too. I'm not trying to be negative but weatherman always underestimate the power of warm air over-riding.

Sleet makes a good base!

I'm afraid I have to agree, based on everything I've read. My heart remains with Josh, but every other source has indicated that the models are going warmer than previously forecasted. Josh must be focused purely on the NAM, which is an outlier from what I've seen.

As for the sleet - we don't need the base. We've GOT the base. We need some fluffy snow to freshen up the windbuffed snow surfaces.

[MikeTrainor]

Originally Posted by KingM

And if people had just paid attention, I wouldn't be turning away people right and left who are trying to storm chase a little too late. It's not as bad as President's Weekend, but there are still a lot of people who would like to come, but can't.

Your only bad timing Jim is that you're coming tomorrow instead of tonight. Drive carefully, please. The roads might still be interesting on Friday night.

Glad I booked ahead then, should be a great weekend! Keep us updated tomorrow...

[powderfreak]

I'm sorry for not getting on this earlier but have been too busy skiing and working. The last 5 or 6 days have showed me what life should be about. Now I'm left catching up here on the details but have had a general idea in my head since yesterday. The details that are important for skiing and riding this weekend...

-It will change to sleet or at least mix with sleet all the way to the Canadian border, except in ME and possibly far northern NH. Those areas will be furthest away from the warm layer, which will move into other regions from the SSW. Models can't make up their mind but they almost always under-predict the northward extent of the warm air.

-Winds will be very strong tomorrow morning out of the south. Wind holds are likely on some lifts. Winds look to be fine for Saturday and Sunday. No problems expected.

-A wall of snow is expected to move into the region in the early morning hours. It should be snowing in Burlington by 5am and be steady at 1"/hr. Only 1-3" on the ground at daybreak.

TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS...will be 7-14" from SB/MRG northward through Jay Peak in VT, in the northeastern Adirondacks of NY, the northern half of NH, most of ME except maybe coastal sections. Highest totals will be in NH and ME where some spots could see over 14". Lowest totals will be across central VT and the northeastern Adirondacks where I expect more mixing...but if that does not come true, then over a foot of snowfall is likely. South of there, near a Gore-Killington-Sunapee line, 4-8" with sleet, and possibly freezing rain, will fall through Friday night. New snow might have a crust layer. In the Catskills, Berkshires, and southern VT...expect 2-6" with the 5-6" amounts falling in the Berkshires and southern VT. Only a couple inches is expected at Catskill ski areas before significant icing. Heavy sleet and/or freezing rain accumulations are also possible in S.VT, and the Berkshires on top of the snowfall.

Sorry about the time and its not as in-depth as I'd like, but I'm going to be following this storm now as it evolves and will post thoughts.

-Scott

[ctski]

man, up here in Burlington, we are getting different reports hourly. i've heard anywhere from two inches to two feet tomorrow. i've also heard sleet (please, no...)

[Goblin84]

the question then comes..... I have a snowday tomorrow ( i love working in education)... should I not ski? Or goto Cannon, gunstock, or sunapee where i have passes too?

[mattchuck2]

I gotta say, I'd rather have 4-8 inches of sleet/snow than rain . . .

Even if it's crusty at first, when the sun hits it in the spring, it'll still turn into nice corn (better than man made snow will)

[awf170]

Originally Posted by powderfreak

Winds will be very strong tomorrow morning out of the south.

NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!

Cannon=screwed.

[aveski2000]

It looks like the Loaf will get anywhere from 12" to 24". I'll be up there on Sunday. It was great last Sunday without any new snow. I'm psyched.

[powderfreak]

Warm air aloft is hauling northward at this hour (1am). Many places to the
south never saw a flake. Albany was supposed to start as snow but started
as sleet then went over to freezing rain very quickly. Same goes for
western MA all the way up into the Oswego, NY area. New RUC is warm aloft
with sleet and freezing rain falling by 7-10am pretty much to the Canadian
border. I was thinking the change over would be later than that....but even
that model has been running a little cold tonight.

Will monitor changes as long as I can but right now I'd expect more mix and
less snow. Freezing rain might make it up to I-89 now, or at least at the
mountain tops which are closer to the warm layer. You could experience
freezing rain at the top but sleet in the valleys as that melted snowflake
has a significantly greater amount of time to re-freeze into an ice pellet
(sleet) on its way down another 2-4K feet.

-Scott

[ckofer]

Just snipped this from WMUR's site