The Official 4/4 - 4/5 Storm Discussion Thread

[loafer89]

The forecast for Sugarloaf next week looks very promising for those dreaming of a white Easter :

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY MENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST FOR...NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANDOVER...BYRON...MIDDLE DAM...ROXBURY...SOUTH ARM...UPTON...WILSONS MILLS...AVON...CARRABASSETT VALLEY...COBURN GORE...DALLAS...DAVIS...EUSTIS...KINGFIELD...BINGH AM...LITTLETON329 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2007.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 15 TO 20. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPHTHIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. .SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. .SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN LIKELY...THEN SNOW ORSLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3INCHES. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCEOF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT..MONDAY...RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONPOSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCEOF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. .MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONPOSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCEOF SNOW 70 PERCENT. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. .TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.LOWS AROUND 20. .WEDNESDAY...RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. LOWS 18 TO 23. CHANCE OF SNOW60 PERCENT. .THURSDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHSIN THE LOWER 30S. .THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCEOF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 15 TO 20. HIGHS AROUND 30. .FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OFSNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 15. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

[loafer89]

Burlington V.T forecast discussion:

A HIGH ELEVATION GFS POINT SOUNDING OVER THE
NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AT JAY PEAK SUGGESTS A WEEK LONG TOTAL OF
ABOUT 2.00" LIQUID EQUIVALENT MOST OF WHICH FALLS AS
SNOW...INTIALLY RAIN/VERY SNOW WET THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT BUT FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD A PROLONGED LIGHT SNOW COULD ADD UP.

[Greg]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
954 AM EDT MON APR 2 2007

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH WED WITH MAIN FEATURES
EXCEPT QPF. GFS A LITTLE MORE INTENSE AND SLIGHTLY FASTER BRINGING
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. AGREEMENT LENDS
CONFIDENCE TO MOST OF THE FORECAST BUT EXACTLY HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION FALLS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS IN QUESTION.

TODAY SHORT WAVE WITH COLD/OCCL FROPA ALOFT 18Z WITH GOOD QG
FORCING...DEEP MOISTURE AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD BRING
CATEGORICAL POPS. POPS DROP OFF TO CHC OR SLGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT
WITH LACK OF FORCING. WITH COOLING ALOFT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AROUND...DECREASING WIND AND DISSIPATING SFC FRONT COULD BE SOME
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ESP NE VT AND ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG.
SEE LITTLE TO BRING MUCH PRECIPITATION INTO MOST AREAS TUE AND ONE
COULD ARGUE DRY FOR OUR AREA SINCE WE HAVE A BRIEF WINDOW BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS. LATE IN THE DAY WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL THREATEN MAINLY NY AND PERHAPS RUTLAND COUNTY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

POPS INCREASE TUES NIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION...MAXING OUT WED
WITH COLD FROPA. VERY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS...TROP FOLD PTYPE LOOKS
TO ME TO BE MOSTLY RAIN UNTIL WED EVENING WHEN THICKNESSES COME
CRASHING DOWN WITH HEAVIER BURST OF PRECIP CHANGING TO SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FIRST. RIGHT NOW THINK
GFS HAS BEST TRACK RECORD IN OUR AREA THIS SEASON WITH MARGINAL
PTYPE EVENTS AND IT ARGUES RAIN WITH LOW LEVELS JUST A BIT TOO
WARM FOR ANYTHING ELSE UNTIL WED NIGHT. MOS SUGGESTS AT MOST A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF S OR ZR UNTIL WED NIGHT ESPECIALLY ERN VT. I
LIKE A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS EXCEPT KEEP IT AT OR ABOVE 32
UNTIL WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
EVENING COULD BE A BURST OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AS IT CHANGES
OVER TO SNOW 00Z- 06Z ALL AREAS WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY FRIDAY...CUTOFF POLAR VORTEX BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND NW PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DRIVE MAINLY SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN....POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. STILL LOOKS LIKE ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH COULD ADD UP TO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS BY THE WEEKEND.

[andyzee]

Taking off work Friday and heading up to VT Thursday night. We've been very lucky being in the right place at the right time this year.

[loafer89]

It's looking good for Sugarloaf/Sunday River:

[andyzee]

Nope, Sugarbush/Killington

[snoseek]

Originally Posted by loafer89

It's looking good for Sugarloaf/Sunday River:

loaf and saddleback are where i'm putting my money.

[loafer89]

I would be expecting NOAA to issue a winter storm watch for Maine by sometime on tuesday, seeing as how the same storm is producing these warnings in the upper midwest.

[2knees]

loafer and all, i hope it comes true but accuweather maps? the noaa forecast looks promising for you............... more importantly.

[loafer89]

3" of new snow so far this morning at Sunday River and Sugarloaf with a winter storm watch now in effect