Farmers Almanac Predicts

[skican]

By DAVID SHARP, Associated Press Writer

LEWISTON, Maine - Gas up the snowblower but don't put away your umbrella: The Farmers' Almanac is predicting a wild winter with heavy precipitation and dramatic temperature swings in the Northeast.





• Farmers' Almanac - official site



The northern Plains and Great Lakes will be snowy, the almanac says, while it will be milder in the southern half of the country. The Northeast will have unusually wet weather — either as rain or snow, according to the almanac.


"The big thing is it's going to be a winter of extremes," said managing editor Sandi Duncan, whose almanac hits newsstands Tuesday.


The weather formula used by the 188-year-old Farmers' Almanac is a closely guarded secret. Prepared two years in advance, the forecasts are based on sunspots, the position of the planets and tidal action of the moon.


The National Weather Service (news - web sites) questions the accuracy of forecasts made so far in advance, but the almanac says it is right 80 percent of the time. Some people use it for planning weddings and other outdoor events.


The almanac's forecast last winter was largely on the mark. It predicted a cold winter and Mother Nature delivered a January deep freeze in the Northeast.


The almanac also forecast a wet and cool summer. And that seems to ring true in many places, including Maine.


This coming winter will get off to a cold start in the Pacific Northwest and northern Plains, the almanac says. Milder weather is in store for southern half of the nation, with near normal or balmy temperatures from California to the Deep South, according to the almanac.


Later in 2005, the almanac predicts a wet spring for most of the country and an active pattern for the Midwest's "Tornado Alley" in April and June.


The Farmers' Almanac — not to be confused with the Old Farmer's Almanac in New Hampshire — also offers up recipes, brainteasers, jokes, gardening tips and trivia.


This year's edition also continues a focus by the almanac editors on finding happiness through simplicity.


An article on "Putting the Joy Back into Christmas" noted that the holiday buying binge leads to personal debt and an additional 5 million to 7 million tons of extra waste in landfills.


"We're not saying don't give. Let's give things that are more significant to the recipient," said editor Peter Geiger.


The editors expect to distribute 4.5 million copies of the three versions of the almanac: the 200-page retail version, a shorter promotional version and a Canadian version.


Last year, the editors launched a syndicated column that's in 100 newspapers, and the almanac's Web site remains popular.


Now the editors are exploring a new medium.


"Our goal is to have a family-oriented television show," Duncan said.

Poop poopde doo! Heres hoping for snow!

[thetrailboss]

From my experience, the Almanac has always been a year too late to forecast what will happen. I know that in 2000-2001 they were forecasting a bad season and it was the best snow year since the 1970's for us in VT. So, for the 2001-2002 season they said, "yeah, lots of snow," and guess what? It did not snow until mid December and then it rained and rained....so, I take their forecasts with a grain of salt.

Something was said about it being an El Nino year.

[Greg]

Originally Posted by thetrailboss

so, I take their forecasts with a grain of salt.

I'll take the whole shaker...

Does anyone have data on how accurate the Farmer's Almanac has been hsistorically? We discussed this briefly a few weeks back in the hiking forum:

http://forums.alpinezone.com/viewtopic.php?t=1886

[rjc1976]

I followed both the Farmer's Almanac and the Old Farmer's Almanac for a few months last year. I found the Old Farmer's Almanac to be really off most of the time. On the other hand, I thought the Farmer's Almanac was pretty decent at predicting precipitation (but not great at knowing if it would be rain or snow). Overall I was impressed as far as long range predictions go. The Farmer's Alamanc itself claims an 80% accuracy rate, but that kind of sounds high to me.