The Official 11/15 - 11/16 Storm Discussion Thread

nelsapbm · Nov 14, 2007, 6:29 PM

Tom Messner (WPTZ Burlington/Plattsburg) is predicting 5-9" for the spine of the Greens and the NEK. Trace to 2" in the valleys. We'll see what Sharon has to say on 'CAX in about 45 minutes

loafer89 · Nov 14, 2007, 6:41 PM

I just read that some models have dropped the idea of a storm for Thanksgiving

The 1-2" of rain forecast for Sugarloaf tomorrow is going to hurt the limited snowcover.

GrilledSteezeSandwich · Nov 14, 2007, 7:34 PM

Awesome..Stowe and northern Vermont could start getting a base..

ski_resort_observer · Nov 14, 2007, 7:39 PM

Sharon says it going to snow!!!! Here is yet another forecast, this one at the 3000' elevation of Sugarbush.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick...x=125&map.y=95

adamti91 · Nov 14, 2007, 7:51 PM

From WTEN Albany.

bobbutts · Nov 14, 2007, 7:55 PM

some images

powderfreak · Nov 14, 2007, 10:28 PM

The upcoming storm system is a tough call. I'd expect lower snowfall totals in NH and ME based on latest westward trend, with higher totals in northern NY and northern VT. The system is progged to deepen quicker than anticipated yesterday, throwing more moisture back into the cold conveyor belt. The Adirondacks will see 4-6"...the Northern Green Mountains see 7-10", w/ isolated 12" amounts along the spine.

What we'll see tomorrow is a rain changing to snow from WNW to ESE, and from the top down...happening mostly during the afternoon or evening for most areas. The snow level will stop however, at 1,500ft for some time...and so the lowest elevations, such as the Champlain Valley, might not see much snow (2" or less) with an after 12am Friday changeover time. With no strong low level cold air push until the low is well off to the northeast, we'll have to use dynamic cooling from the melting of snowflakes aloft, to bring the snow level that last thousand or so feet to the surface. If the snow level doesn't lower to the CPV by midnight, a strong area of 500mb vorticity will help mix it to the surface.

The only ways we could end up with more snow in the valleys (and mountains) are:
1) Heavy banded precipitation is occurring over the region pushing that snow level lower several hours ahead of schedule in areas seeing any meso-scale bands.
2) The low pressure system will track in a fashion that is favorable to Champlain Valley convergence on the backside, and adjacent heavy upslope snow. Late tomorrow night, NNW winds should funnel moisture into the upper CPV and western slopes while riding the cold air south...enhancing and/or prolonging backside snowfall.

Whatever happens, it should be a fun early season system with a little more widespread snowfall than the last mountain episode.

-Scott

Marc · Nov 15, 2007, 9:27 AM

Thanks for the insight Scott. I am looking forward to this weekend.

kingslug · Nov 15, 2007, 10:43 AM

I'll just have tp wait for Bird Day weekend. Inaccuweather and others are predicting a cold beginning to winter but then a warmup, like last year. Hope they are wrong but this time I'm going to get in as many early turns as I can.

**Greg** · Nov 15, 2007, 4:35 PM

I know the Intellicast radar coloring is not always representative of the actual precip (it's been snowing in the north country most of the day),but check out the blue blob over the ADKs that's been there most of today:

Nov 14, 2007, 6:41 PM	#12 (permalink)
loafer89 Sugarloaf Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Coventry, C.T Posts: 3,605	I just read that some models have dropped the idea of a storm for Thanksgiving The 1-2" of rain forecast for Sugarloaf tomorrow is going to hurt the limited snowcover. __________________ Ski School - A place where novices are turned into menaces.

Nov 14, 2007, 7:39 PM	#14 (permalink)
ski_resort_observer it's sweeter up here...pure Vermont Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Waitsfield,Vt Posts: 2,533	Sharon says it going to snow!!!! Here is yet another forecast, this one at the 3000' elevation of Sugarbush. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick...x=125&map.y=95 __________________ www.firstlightphotographics.com " Some failure in life is inevitable. It is impossible to live without failing at something, unless you live so cautiously that you might as well not have lived at all -- in which case, you fail by default," You know your a Vermont woodchuck if ya hear someone mention NSynch and your thinking it's where your dirty dishes are. Okay...that did happen to me but they were really piling up and was thinking they needed some attention.

Nov 14, 2007, 7:51 PM	#15 (permalink)
adamti91 Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Catskills Posts: 466	From WTEN Albany. __________________ Winter '06/07: Belleayre: 1/20, 1/21, 1/28, 2/2, 2/10, 2/15, 2/18, 2/25, 3/3, 4/22; Plattekill: 1/27, 2/3, 2/11,3/19, 4/24. Winter '07/08: Belleayre: 11/17, 11/21, 11/24, 12/1, 12/3, 12/8, 12/22, 1/13, 1/14, 3/1; Plattekill: 2/23. Backpacking: Pacific Northwest: Summer 2007. Catskill Conditions Thread

Nov 15, 2007, 9:27 AM	#18 (permalink)
Marc I'm with psycho --> Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Dudley, MA Posts: 5,771	Thanks for the insight Scott. I am looking forward to this weekend. __________________ Making sanity obsolete since 1982...

Nov 15, 2007, 10:43 AM	#19 (permalink)
kingslug Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: looooooong island ny Posts: 1,636	I'll just have tp wait for Bird Day weekend. Inaccuweather and others are predicting a cold beginning to winter but then a warmup, like last year. Hope they are wrong but this time I'm going to get in as many early turns as I can. __________________ Lets go! I'll drive.

Nov 14, 2007, 6:29 PM	#11 (permalink)
nelsapbm Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Burlington area, VT Posts: 427	Tom Messner (WPTZ Burlington/Plattsburg) is predicting 5-9" for the spine of the Greens and the NEK. Trace to 2" in the valleys. We'll see what Sharon has to say on 'CAX in about 45 minutes

Nov 14, 2007, 7:34 PM	#13 (permalink)
GrilledSteezeSandwich Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 10,649	Awesome..Stowe and northern Vermont could start getting a base..

Nov 14, 2007, 10:28 PM	#17 (permalink)
powderfreak Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 235	The upcoming storm system is a tough call. I'd expect lower snowfall totals in NH and ME based on latest westward trend, with higher totals in northern NY and northern VT. The system is progged to deepen quicker than anticipated yesterday, throwing more moisture back into the cold conveyor belt. The Adirondacks will see 4-6"...the Northern Green Mountains see 7-10", w/ isolated 12" amounts along the spine. What we'll see tomorrow is a rain changing to snow from WNW to ESE, and from the top down...happening mostly during the afternoon or evening for most areas. The snow level will stop however, at 1,500ft for some time...and so the lowest elevations, such as the Champlain Valley, might not see much snow (2" or less) with an after 12am Friday changeover time. With no strong low level cold air push until the low is well off to the northeast, we'll have to use dynamic cooling from the melting of snowflakes aloft, to bring the snow level that last thousand or so feet to the surface. If the snow level doesn't lower to the CPV by midnight, a strong area of 500mb vorticity will help mix it to the surface. The only ways we could end up with more snow in the valleys (and mountains) are: 1) Heavy banded precipitation is occurring over the region pushing that snow level lower several hours ahead of schedule in areas seeing any meso-scale bands. 2) The low pressure system will track in a fashion that is favorable to Champlain Valley convergence on the backside, and adjacent heavy upslope snow. Late tomorrow night, NNW winds should funnel moisture into the upper CPV and western slopes while riding the cold air south...enhancing and/or prolonging backside snowfall. Whatever happens, it should be a fun early season system with a little more widespread snowfall than the last mountain episode. -Scott

Nov 15, 2007, 4:35 PM	#20 (permalink)
Greg Killington: 11.21.08 Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: Thomaston, CT Posts: 22,323	I know the Intellicast radar coloring is not always representative of the actual precip (it's been snowing in the north country most of the day),but check out the blue blob over the ADKs that's been there most of today: __________________ Greg 10/29, 11/21

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