The Official 11/15 - 11/16 Storm Discussion Thread

[powderfreak]

Recent model data has changed to a decidedly more snow-friendly tune. As is
often the case in the fall and early winter, when cold fronts reach the
coast they increase the baroclinicity thanks to a mild ocean and cool land
temperatures. On Thursday morning, this temperature gradient and the
sharpening trough behind the cold front will spark a deepening low pressure
system off the coast of Southern New England...it will then track into the
Canadian Maritimes. The GFS holds the low closer to the New England
coastline and, thus provides a heavier snowfall, especially in Maine and New
Hampshire.

Low level temperatures are fairly mild and the low looks to deepen too late
too gather the necessary wind to transport surface cold air in before
precipitation shuts down. However, the 0C isotherm does sneak in down to
roughly 2,000ft on both the NAM and GFS, during the middle of the
precipitation event (say noon Thursday).

From the initial event, the heaviest snowfall will be from the SB/MRG area
northeastward with the White Mountains through western Maine picking up the
lion's share. I could envision 4-8" at elevation from Sugarloaf to Loon by
Friday morning with 2-5" across the central/northern Green Mountains above
2,000ft. Then, as the system moves northward and slams Fort Kent, ME, it
throws enough moisture southward to set off the orographic machines on
Friday. Cold air will be in place so accumulating snow showers are likely
even in some of the towns near the Green Mountain spine and in north central
VT. This looks like a 2-4" upslope event for the hills from SB northward by
Saturday morning...with 1-3" in northern NH/western ME.

Total New Snow by Saturday morning should be mainly 4-8" in the
central/northern Greens and 5-9 with isolated higher amounts across northern
NH and western ME. Remember this is mainly at some elevation and the
majority of population centers will remain below 3"...with larger valleys
(White River, CPV, etc) seeing little to no snow.

-Scott

ps: Still looks interesting early next week.

[JimG.]

Originally Posted by powderfreak

Recent model data has changed to a decidedly more snow-friendly tune. As is
often the case in the fall and early winter, when cold fronts reach the
coast they increase the baroclinicity thanks to a mild ocean and cool land
temperatures. On Thursday morning, this temperature gradient and the
sharpening trough behind the cold front will spark a deepening low pressure
system off the coast of Southern New England...it will then track into the
Canadian Maritimes. The GFS holds the low closer to the New England
coastline and, thus provides a heavier snowfall, especially in Maine and New
Hampshire.

Low level temperatures are fairly mild and the low looks to deepen too late
too gather the necessary wind to transport surface cold air in before
precipitation shuts down. However, the 0C isotherm does sneak in down to
roughly 2,000ft on both the NAM and GFS, during the middle of the
precipitation event (say noon Thursday).

From the initial event, the heaviest snowfall will be from the SB/MRG area
northeastward with the White Mountains through western Maine picking up the
lion's share. I could envision 4-8" at elevation from Sugarloaf to Loon by
Friday morning with 2-5" across the central/northern Green Mountains above
2,000ft. Then, as the system moves northward and slams Fort Kent, ME, it
throws enough moisture southward to set off the orographic machines on
Friday. Cold air will be in place so accumulating snow showers are likely
even in some of the towns near the Green Mountain spine and in north central
VT. This looks like a 2-4" upslope event for the hills from SB northward by
Saturday morning...with 1-3" in northern NH/western ME.

Total New Snow by Saturday morning should be mainly 4-8" in the
central/northern Greens and 5-9 with isolated higher amounts across northern
NH and western ME. Remember this is mainly at some elevation and the
majority of population centers will remain below 3"...with larger valleys
(White River, CPV, etc) seeing little to no snow.

-Scott

ps: Still looks interesting early next week.

Thanks Scott.

The season is off to a rousing start.

[riverc0il]

Love it. Cannon always seems to get nailed at least once before they open and this looks like the one. I know where I'll be Saturday morning.

[Zand]

Looks like Maine should make out pretty well with this one. Bombs out too late to do mch for the rest of New England, but don't count out some flakes on the backside of this Friday morning. Looks like Sunday River and Sugarloaf will be the places to be this weekend.

[awf170]

Originally Posted by riverc0il

Love it. Cannon always seems to get nailed at least once before they open and this looks like the one. I know where I'll be Saturday morning.

My guess is Wildcat for a storm like this. Though Cannon could pick up a decent amount initially then some more from the upslope, giving them the most overall. I hope Cannon wins out though since it is shortest drive for me.

I want some more early season taft goodness...

[riverc0il]

I ain't saying Cannon gets the jackpot, just saying that is where I'll be.

[Mildcat]

PSYYYYYYYYYCH!!! I'll be at the Loaf this weekend.

[loafer89]

NOAA talk's about a retrograding storm for Maine early next week. We like retrograding storms, just like the one late last April.

Let the sucker do a dance in the Gulf Of Maine all next week

[kingslug]

A cold front on Thursday will push through the East, replacing the unseasonably warm air with gusty winds, rain and lake-effect snow to the lee of the Great Lakes. By Friday, snow showers will spread from the Great Lakes into the Northeast interior and a powerful snow storm will slam northern Maine.

The Midwest Regional News story reports the arctic air following the cold front tonight will trigger lake-effect snow to the lee of the upper Great Lakes as well as localized snow squalls in northern Michigan.

By Thursday, the cold front will move into the East, with lake-effect snow developing in the snow belt areas around the lower Great Lakes.

Powerful winds today have blasted across the Plains states and Upper Midwest. The Severe Weather Center lists the widespread wind advisories in effect from the Canadian border to North Texas.

Peak wind gusts reported in the 24 hours ending at 11 a.m. CST include:
Related News
Video: Latest Weather Update
Vlog: Meteo Madness - Wild Weather Pattern
Vlog: Frank Strait - Cold Air Dipping South
Blog: Jesse Ferrell - Lake-Effect Snow, Round 2
**UPDATE:** AccuWeather.com Winter Forecast
Laramie, Wyo.: 62 mph
Rapid City, S.D.: 61 mph
Minot, N.D.: 60 mph
Buffalo, S.D.: 56 mph
According to the East Regional News story, a increasingly potent storm along the cold front on Thursday will spread rain along the Eastern Seaboard from Virginia to Maine. The heaviest rain will fall along the Interstate 95 corridor north of Chesapeake Bay.

The cold air following the front will turn the rain to snow along the Appalachian spine. Snow accumulations from northern Pennsylvania to the Adirondacks could average one to two inches; however, some areas could receive higher amounts.

The Winter Weather Center reports on Friday, the storm on Friday will spark a significant snow storm in northern Maine. More than 6 inches of snow will fall across eastern Quebec, while upstate New York and northern New England will receive lesser amounts. To the east of the storm center, a cold rain and winds gusting to 60 mph will lash New England and Atlantic Canada.

Severe Weather Expert Henry Margusity analyzes the storm activity in New England through the weekend.

The cold front will push out the unseasonably warm air across the eastern third of the nation. On Tuesday, at least 38 daily temperatures records were broken or tied. By Friday, temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees colder. The South Regional News story reports the colder air will reach well into the Deep South and the southern Plains.

City Avg. Thurs. Fri. Sat. Sun. City Avg. Thurs. Fri. Sat. Sun.
Denver 52 56 65 62 63 Chicago 48 44 46 50 44
Dallas 65 66 73 74 74 St. Louis 54 54 63 60 59
Pittsburgh 51 42 38 41 46 Washington, D.C. 58 56 49 50 50
Philadelphia 55 55 48 46 48 New York City 54 56 48 46 48
Boston 52 59 48 46 46 Memphis 63 58 63 68 67
Raleigh 63 60 53 58 60 Atlanta 64 56 58 62 65


NICE!

[powderfreak]

Winter Storm Watch....the amounts generally fit what I posted last night. I'll stay with my 4-8" in northern VT and 5-9" across northern NH and ME. I'm on the fence with increasing my VT amounts as I feel the Spine resorts (SB, MRG, Stowe, Bolton, Smuggs, and Jay) will make out pretty good from this. Recent guidance suggests more upslope snow, especially Bolton, Stowe, Smuggs, and Jay than I have forecasted. Amounts might be realized near a foot in those areas.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
354 PM EST WED NOV 14 2007

...POTENTIAL FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT...AND THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL
RESULT IN A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN AT LOW-LEVELS...DEVELOPING
PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW CENTER WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR FIRST
IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THEN GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT
DURING THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACK REGION AS WELL AS NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LESSER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.


VTZ003-004-006-007-016>019-150500-
/O.NEW.KBTV.WS.A.0009.071115T2300Z-071116T2300Z/
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...
STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...
BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...KILLINGTON
354 PM EST WED NOV 14 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY THROUGH 6
PM FRIDAY.

RAIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WILL MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS THURSDAY. THE
CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR FIRST AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND
GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AND
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN TAPER OFF TO OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON HOW QUICKLY COLD
AIR CAN MOVE INTO VERMONT WHILE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS RAPIDLY OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR 5 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH AREA...WITH
ISOLATED 10 INCH AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR
GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS
WEATHER SITUATION.