[Greg]

Wooho! Powder day for me for my first time at the 'Bush! Hope the winds mellow out...

http://www.sugarbush.com/winter/onmountain/weather.htm

Originally Posted by Roemer

Wednesday, Feb 9th, Morning Update

*Biggest storm of the winter possible - 10-15"
*Colder this weekend/ next week, but not brutal with off and on snow

Well, we have had enough of a good thing with the recent warm weather, but the weather pattern change we have been talking about is on our heels. Light rain and fog will be a distant memory by later tomorrow into the weekend as perhaps the biggest snow event of the season hits us. This comes at a critical stage.

We are not going to change the 10-12" of snow we mentioned earlier this week from this up coming storm. If anything, amounts could be even a little greater than this. Snow amounts between tomorrow & Friday morning with a new nor'easter, and a weather system early-middle of next week may be in the 15-20" range.

The storm is similar to the blizzard in Boston a few weeks ago with one 'critical difference' - the temperatures. Temperatures and humidity levels were so low over northern New England during that storm that most of the available moisture was forced well to our east. In this case, the storm system will have time to wrap around to the left of where most models have been forecasting it to go; the left meaning, closer to the coast and in cold air, but not 'so cold' that it evaporates any moisture that comes our way and pushes the storm away.

Temperatures in the 22-28 degree range later tomorrow into Friday a.m. should mean a 15:1 or 20:1 water to snow content ratio. During the blizzard, some places in southern New England saw 35:1 (inch of moisture and 35 inches of snow)! When it is that cold that far south, you can also kiss heavy snows in our area goodbye, but not this time.

Snow amounts by early-mid afternoon Thursday will be in the 3-5" range and then the real fun begins with heavy snow tomorrow night and early Friday morning. Winds could exceed 40-50 MPH on top Friday morning, but other than that, we'll have some of the best powder skiing of the season through the weekend. The 1915-1916 analog seems to be panning out, as the weather pattern change it suggests is right on track and more normal snowfall can be expected, perhaps into March.