Snows are Coming!

[powderfreak]

This is something I wrote for mostly N.Vermont/Green Mtn resorts but you can read between the lines and infer what it might mean for adjacent areas. Just wanted to post it over here at AlpineZone, too...

Here's the breakdown:

Thursday Night...Light Snow event with 1-3" lowest elevations and up to 6"
across the peaks by Friday morning. This could be elevation dependent with
what seems to be good snows in the valley while its falling but the net gain
is a sloppy inch or two.

Friday we are between systems.

Friday Night and Saturday...Model guidance has become decidedly colder with
this upcoming system and I was concerned with a change to liquid or freezing
rain, however, I now think the north country is all snow with sleet possibly
mixing in up to BTV. 00z and now 12z models are starting to show critical
thicknesses that support all snow from RUT northward. Precipitation amounts
would argue for a widespread 3-6" across the north with isolated 8" amounts
across higher terrain just north of the mixing line (Sugarbush/MRG region?).

Later Saturday through Sunday...scattered flurries and snow showers along
the west slopes.

Big Question Mark is the Sunday Night and Monday time frame...Some global
models have been indicating a quick-hitting coastal system for this time
frame. The pattern is ripe with a strong shortwave holding the upper trough
back across the eastern Lakes, while a ton of energy heads off the eastern
seaboard. If any of you have been reading the NWS discussions there's been
a lot of uncertainty (and still is) as to east coast low formation. The 6z
GFS has now gone back to the idea of an east coast low as the upper trough
captures the surface low and keeps it hugging the coast, as opposed to
exiting stage right. It spreads a moderate snowstorm across the region on
Sunday night and early Monday...and has about half of its ensemble members
supporting it, the other half are partly sunny.

For now, can't expect too much in this +NAO/-PNA pattern (good for Western
U.S.) and this morning it hit me that this feels much more like a late March
pattern. Ample chances for precipitation with precipitation types ranging
from mostly snow NNE to mixed snow/rain in SNE.

-Scott

ps: We'll be in good shape if we can keep accumulating over the next week or
two as this is our pattern re-load.

[nelsapbm]

Thanks Scott! Any idea on the timing of the Friday nite/Saturday event? I've got to go down to Boston and was planning on leaving Friday after work, but it can wait until Saturday if need be.

[harvey44]

Talk about a great post.

Thank you. (!)

[powderfreak]

Originally Posted by nelsapbm

Thanks Scott! Any idea on the timing of the Friday nite/Saturday event? I've got to go down to Boston and was planning on leaving Friday after work, but it can wait until Saturday if need be.

I think you're fine on Friday after work. Right now its looking like precipitation will stay west of a Worcester, MA to Burlington, VT through 10pm so if you're leaving after work, you should be fine to Boston. I'd say there's a chance of light precipitation but the bulk of the event looks to fall during the overnight hours from 10pm-7am across the northeast.

[skimore]

Would that snow/mixing line extend into the Daks?

[powderfreak]

Originally Posted by skimore

Would that snow/mixing line extend into the Daks?

I feel confident that Whiteface/Lake Placid area of the northern 'Dacks stays all snow while southern Adirondacks to Lake George region, including Gore Mtn, is 80% snow and 20% sleet...but its definitely heading towards an all-snow scenario; given this season's plethora of mixed precipitation events though, I'm not yet buying into an all snow scenario for the southern Dacks. Definitely a possibility though. I like to stay warm biased until proven otherwise, haha, but it fits our current situation.

-Scott

[loafer89]

What is your thinking about what will happen to Maine? NOAA has no mention of any sleet or freezing rain in their forecast for the Sugarloaf/Saddleback area at the present time.

[powderfreak]

Originally Posted by loafer89

What is your thinking about what will happen to Maine? NOAA has no mention of any sleet or freezing rain in their forecast for the Sugarloaf/Saddleback area at the present time.

All snow at the 'Loaf. Sunday River *might* mix with sleet but this will be tied directly to latitude and I think once you get north of a Glens Falls, NY to Rutland, VT to Conway, NH to Bangor, ME line it will be all snow with maybe some sleet close to that line.

Amounts look like they will run in the 4-7" range north of that line.

[nelsapbm]

Snow started here about 45 minutes or so ago and its really starting to come down.

[danny p]

Originally Posted by powderfreak

All snow at the 'Loaf. Sunday River *might* mix with sleet but this will be tied directly to latitude and I think once you get north of a Glens Falls, NY to Rutland, VT to Conway, NH to Bangor, ME line it will be all snow with maybe some sleet close to that line.

Amounts look like they will run in the 4-7" range north of that line.

is that for the friday/saturday storm or the sunday/monday storm? thanks for your insight, i love weather discussions!