Get your powder this week, will be gone by next week

[from_the_NEK]

Originally Posted by JimG.

Is it just a coincidence that my new job starts on 1/7?

This happens to be my birthday as well. Happy freakin birthday, here is your January thaw

[billski]

I can't believe how good the woods were at Mt. snow right after the rain followed by 6-10. Never in my wildest. I think I'm going BC and never coming back rain or norain

[powderfreak]

Originally Posted by JimG.

This is the same patten I recalled from 12 years or so ago.

We discussed then that these patterns often change every 8 weeks or so.

Is it just a coincidence that my new job starts on 1/7?

Pattern changes happen every 6 weeks on average....usually anywhere from 4-8 weeks, though. Think back to the mid-Nov shift and the 6 week deluge of snow that followed. Now we are already a week or two into a 4-6 week mild(er) period. Temp averages have been above average since the pre-Xmas thaw, though at this time of year, above normal temps will still yield good snowfall as averages are well below freezing in most NE mountainous areas.

Out for the night soon...happy new years everyone! Will be enjoying powder at Stowe tomorrow, Wed, Thurs, Fri, Sat, Sun, etc. Life is good in Burlington!

Take care,
-Scott

[ajl50]

Scott-
Is it me or is there any back up to my sense that the weather is most extreme (dev. from normal) right before a pattern change and that these changes usually come with a large storm?
The reason I ask is that I see really warm temps around the 15th and then a large storm following on the GFS and Euro models. I also remember back a few pattern changes and see the same thing.
Am I crazy

[loafer89]

The warm up looks to be brief and not too damaging and better times look ahead:

January Will Be Known as a Stormy Month
Friday, January 04, 2008
THE WEST COAST GETS HIT HARD BY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING... EACH STORM NEXT WEEK PUSHES THE COLD AIR BACK INTO THE EAST AS WE GO INTO A STORMY WEATHER PATTERN.
From the Plains to the East Coast, cold air is moving away and a milder weather pattern is shaping up for about the next three-five days. As I talked about yesterday, cold air will return behind each storm that moves through. The first storm will come out of the Rockies early in the week, the second at midweek, and the third next weekend. Each one will have its share of snow and severe weather.
I want to make a point about January. I know we all heard that the month will be mild overall. While it might be when all the numbers are tallied up, I think people will look back on the month and say how stormy it was. It's certainly not going to be like last year, when warm weather overwhelmed the entire country. In fact, I am really not in the warm camp at all. With the exception of the Southeast/South/Southwest, it really has been a cold weather pattern for a good part of the country. I can show you that on a map later this afternoon. With the La Nina roaring away (SOI Value for the month of Dec was 14.4, which indicates a strong La Nina), the contrast in warmth and cold will continue well into the month and will lead to big storms developing. I think during the month, we will see a couple of powerful storms that produce over a foot of snow in places. I don't know where that will occur just yet, I am just saying that the pattern will lead to big storms. In fact, if you take the storm coming out in the Plains Monday/Tuesday, it could be a blizzard for areas from western Nebraska to northern Minnesota. Quite a turnaround given the next couple of days will have near-record warmth prior to the storm. Even the storm coming around the 15th of the month has huge potential to bring bring heavy snows to parts of the East. From a meteorology point of view, it's a fascinating month coming up.

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

I'm looking forward to a few days of hero snow with no crowds and just wearing a long sleeve shirt..you can turn a January thaw into a positive..and it will get cold again shortly with one of the biggest snowstorms this year on tap sometime between January and May..at least that's what accuweather said..J/K

[SKIQUATTRO]

We'll be at smuggs Jan 11-16..that potential storm on the 15th would be perfect time.....no hype!!

[Breeze]

The right or wrong of forecasting aside...... I think January is going to be gracious in offering something for everyone. Heck, it pretty much has already filled that order!!!! Pow, bumps, groomers, woods, glades, warm, cold, solitude, company, sunburn, frostbite..... its all been there already and doesn't look like its going away!

Breeze

[loafer89]

I will be skiing in the Saddleback/Sugarloaf region from January 20th-23rd so hopefully we will have some new snow to play in.

[billski]

If we get and keep enough of a snowpack, we'll be skiing later, but nobody will come and the resorts will close. We'll be back to earning our turns. Imagine a 6-month ski season. (Now before anyone brings me to my senses with reality and facts, let me just savor my delusions for a while....