Get your powder this week, will be gone by next week

powderfreak · Dec 29, 2007, 11:21 AM

Check this out...valid January 9 - January 13. Warm. This is flat out
crazy that it is forecasting +16C to +18C departures from normal at 850mb
(4.5-5K feet in elevation). It looks like its predicting actuals of +4 to
+6C (low to mid 40's) at our summit heights as an average for those days.

Should we start making sacrifices? Don't start with the messenger....

-Scott

X-Linked · Dec 29, 2007, 11:43 AM

Forecast Shmorecast.

KingM · Dec 29, 2007, 1:16 PM

Bah. It'll never happen.

ckofer · Dec 29, 2007, 6:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by powderfreak

Check this out...valid January 9 - January 13. Warm. This is flat out
crazy that it is forecasting +16C to +18C departures from normal at 850mb
(4.5-5K feet in elevation). It looks like its predicting actuals of +4 to
+6C (low to mid 40's) at our summit heights as an average for those days.

Should we start making sacrifices? Don't start with the messenger....

-Scott

I thought I heard something about that on the tv when I was half asleep a couple days ago. I dismissed it as a dream. Damn.

loafer89 · Dec 29, 2007, 6:15 PM

There is so much snow in Western Maine that it would take a huge thaw to melt it. There is easily 1.5' - 3' of cover on the ground in most spots. My ski pole was half gone in many spots in the woods at Saddleback today.

I have heard that we can expect more artic air and storms after the 10th of the month of January.

**Greg** · Dec 29, 2007, 8:13 PM

January 9 is a million years away as far as I'm concerned. I'm surprised by such an absolute thread title from you, Scott...

riverc0il · Dec 29, 2007, 8:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greg

January 9 is a million years away as far as I'm concerned. I'm surprised by such an absolute thread title from you, Scott...

Seems pretty reasonable to me. There is powder on the way this week and next week sees a massive pattern change that pretty much all mets across the board seem to be calling with very high certainty. This shift was predicted before the season even started by long range folks dialed into overall patterns rather than forecasting. Josh Fox's SIngle Chair Weather Blog suggests breaking out the umbrella for January after this week. If Scott and Fox put up the warnings, I head their words and mentally prepare myself for the worst.

loafer89 · Dec 29, 2007, 8:47 PM

These where also the same people who predicted a warm November and December and that was a bust.

From Accuweather:

Strong push of very cold air into eastern Canada Tuesday and Wednesday could be the last for quite a while as the pattern will change once again and could "lock in" through the month, see below.

A quick note on the latest European model weekly long range forecast for North America.......
As we suspected, last week's model forecast through mid-January might have had some issues. The latest forecast that was just issued today is back to what it has forecasting over the past few months, a return to ay time will tell persistent, and expanding ridge of high pressure in the upper-levels of the atmosphere over the eastern U.S. from January 6th through a good part of the month, while a large trough in the upper-levels of the atmosphere expands from Alaska to the West Coast. What does this mean? It means that after the 5th or 6th of January it is going to be very tough to get any real cold air into the eastern half of the U.S., including southern Manitoba/Ontario/southern Quebec and the Maritimes. Temperatures in these regions will end up above or much-above normal. The mean storm track will also shift north and west, heading up into the northern Plains and upper Midwest of the U.S. and then into northwestern Ontario. Secondary storms might reform over the Maritimes. Western Canada will turn colder compared to normal with above normal precipitation from southern BC south to the West Coast of the U.S. This type of pattern will be quite favorable for a continuation of the snowy pattern for the BC/Alberta ski resorts and even more snow events to the Vancouver area. The Plains storm track could lead to above-normal snowfall for the southeastern Prairies and northern Ontario.

Only time will tell if this is correct

billski · Dec 29, 2007, 9:30 PM

dammit, Janet! (thank you rockyhorrorpictureshow.) I'll just be forced to ski the next three days. sacrifices, sacrifices....

One scary looking chart. Thanks, Scott.

powderfreak · Dec 30, 2007, 9:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greg

January 9 is a million years away as far as I'm concerned. I'm surprised by such an absolute thread title from you, Scott...

I know, I know...but I'm realizing the warmer scenarios are more often correct than the colder ones these days. Sad, but true and I cannot ignore all available data pointing to a serious 7-14 day warm-up. Most of the signs point to at least a transient shot of cold air late in the month. This is the January thaw at its finest, IMO.

Dec 29, 2007, 11:21 AM	#1 (permalink)
powderfreak Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 255	Get your powder this week, will be gone by next week Check this out...valid January 9 - January 13. Warm. This is flat out crazy that it is forecasting +16C to +18C departures from normal at 850mb (4.5-5K feet in elevation). It looks like its predicting actuals of +4 to +6C (low to mid 40's) at our summit heights as an average for those days. Should we start making sacrifices? Don't start with the messenger.... -Scott

Dec 29, 2007, 11:43 AM	#2 (permalink)
X-Linked Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: Poconos, PA Posts: 167	Forecast Shmorecast. __________________ Snow, Ice, Wind, Heat, and Humidity; Experience the world. Ski what you can, hike and climb what you can't. Use the rubbers(cycle) for distance.

Dec 29, 2007, 1:16 PM	#3 (permalink)
KingM Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Warren, VT (Sugarbush, MRG) Posts: 691	Bah. It'll never happen. __________________ http://www.goldenlionriversideinn.com

Dec 29, 2007, 6:15 PM	#5 (permalink)
loafer89 Sugarloaf Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Coventry, C.T Posts: 3,731	There is so much snow in Western Maine that it would take a huge thaw to melt it. There is easily 1.5' - 3' of cover on the ground in most spots. My ski pole was half gone in many spots in the woods at Saddleback today. I have heard that we can expect more artic air and storms after the 10th of the month of January. __________________ Ski School - A place where novices are turned into menaces. 08/09 - 10

Dec 29, 2007, 8:13 PM	#6 (permalink)
Greg Rumble: 12.12.08 Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: Thomaston, CT Posts: 23,288	January 9 is a million years away as far as I'm concerned. I'm surprised by such an absolute thread title from you, Scott... __________________ Greg 10/29, 11/21, 11/28, 11/30, 12/7, 12/12, 12/14, 12/19, 12/21, 12/23, 12/28, 12/29, 1/1, 1/2

Dec 29, 2007, 8:47 PM	#8 (permalink)
loafer89 Sugarloaf Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Coventry, C.T Posts: 3,731	These where also the same people who predicted a warm November and December and that was a bust. From Accuweather: Strong push of very cold air into eastern Canada Tuesday and Wednesday could be the last for quite a while as the pattern will change once again and could "lock in" through the month, see below. A quick note on the latest European model weekly long range forecast for North America....... As we suspected, last week's model forecast through mid-January might have had some issues. The latest forecast that was just issued today is back to what it has forecasting over the past few months, a return to ay time will tell persistent, and expanding ridge of high pressure in the upper-levels of the atmosphere over the eastern U.S. from January 6th through a good part of the month, while a large trough in the upper-levels of the atmosphere expands from Alaska to the West Coast. What does this mean? It means that after the 5th or 6th of January it is going to be very tough to get any real cold air into the eastern half of the U.S., including southern Manitoba/Ontario/southern Quebec and the Maritimes. Temperatures in these regions will end up above or much-above normal. The mean storm track will also shift north and west, heading up into the northern Plains and upper Midwest of the U.S. and then into northwestern Ontario. Secondary storms might reform over the Maritimes. Western Canada will turn colder compared to normal with above normal precipitation from southern BC south to the West Coast of the U.S. This type of pattern will be quite favorable for a continuation of the snowy pattern for the BC/Alberta ski resorts and even more snow events to the Vancouver area. The Plains storm track could lead to above-normal snowfall for the southeastern Prairies and northern Ontario. Only time will tell if this is correct __________________ Ski School - A place where novices are turned into menaces. 08/09 - 10 Last edited by loafer89; Dec 29, 2007 at 9:01 PM.

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