Another forecast and the day before they still have no clue:
THAT SAID...A LOT COULD GO WRONG WITH THIS FORECAST. AM QUITE
CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERAL THINGS. FIRST OF ALL...THE
UKMET MODEL
CONTINUES TO ALSO BE CONSISTENT...SHOWING SURFACE DEVELOPMENT
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...AT 00Z WED WHICH RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A
987
MB LOW AS IT HEADS NE TO THE S OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE 12-HOUR 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS ARE TREMENDOUS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AS VERY COLD
THICKNESSES BARREL EASTWARD OVER VIRGINIA. THIS MIGHT SUGGEST THAT
THE SURFACE DEVELOPMENT AND/OR 700
MB LOW DEVELOPMENT MIGHT BE
FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY MODELED ON THE
GFS OR
ECMWF.
ALSO IN THE SAME CAMP AS THE
UKMET IS THE 00Z
NAM WHICH HAS STRONG
DEVELOPMENT SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AND ITS MAXIMUM VERTICAL MOTION IS
PERFECTLY IN THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION.
THE NAM WOULD LEAD TO
A FOOT OF SNOW OVER A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...FROM
BOSTON TO HARTFORD NORTHWARD. ALSO UNNERVING IS THE FACT THAT THE
00Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A TIGHT CLUSTERING OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR THE
BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W TUE EVENING. IRONICALLY...IN
THE PAST SEVERAL STORMS THOUGH...THE
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED IN TIME
CLOSER TO THE POSITION OF THE
GFS OPERATIONAL RUN AND NOT THE OTHER
WAY AROUND.