The Official 1/1/2008 Storm Thread

[Euler]

Well. New Years Day is my first day of skiing after waiting out my blackout period at Mt. Snow over the Christamas Holiday and looky at this from NWS:


New Year's Day: Periods of snow, mainly after 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. Southeast wind 5 to 8 mph increasing to between 17 and 20 mph. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.

`SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS EVEN MORE POWERFUL THAN CURRENT STORM...AS WHAT
WOULD NORMALLY BE A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW WHICH DEEPENS RAPIDLY AND MAY EVEN RETROGRADE
INTO GULF OF MAINE RESULTING IN TREMENDOUS UPSLOPE SNOWS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES WHERE 1-2
FEET POSSIBLE.

Can You Say YEEEEE HAAAWW!!!!!

[danny p]

i can SCREAM YEE-HAW!! life is good. I'll be at K wednesday if anyone wants to meet up and shred.

[JimG.]

Giving it serious thought. Maybe head up tomorrow night.

Need to make a few phone calls first.

[nelsapbm]

We're under a winter storm watch up here in BTV....6+ inches. I assume we'll be upgraded to a warning soon!
EDIT - the private met company we use at work is telling us 9"....

[powderfreak]

The Watch was upgraded to a warning and looks good from BTV. My thoughts
are a general 6-12" across the North Country with heaviest totals north of
I-89 and east of the spine. However, synoptic features will put us in a
good backside snowfall with strong cold air advection on Wednesday. I have
a feeling the residual low level moisture is going to be wrung-out over the
western slopes with some decent snowfall at the ski areas even well into
Wednesday. Valley locations will see more showery type precip on Wednesday.
Totals of 12-18" across the northern Green Mountain spine from Bolton to
Jay Peak are very possible by Wednesday evening, in my opinion. With
surface temps in the 30-32F range at low elevations tomorrow afternoon, this
will likely start at 8-10:1 ratios before transitioning more towards a 15:1
with the cold air advection as temps fall through the 20's and teens.

Snow will develop tomorrow afternoon and could become heavy towards evening
with models indicating .3-.4" L.E. in a 4-5 hour burst according to the
hourlies. This should be realized with up to an inch per hour. Think the
central/southern Greens (maybe even BTV area) gets dryslotted for a time
with only light snow while the heaviest stuff swings north and parks itself
across northern VT back into northern NY. This will then curl south and
east Wed morning providing another good burst of snow before we transition
to more showery type precipitation on a NW flow.

Enjoy the storm and the sight of flakes falling from the sky...

-Scott

ps: One of the better technical discussions I've seen in a while from BTV.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
357 PM EST MON DEC 31 2007

...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM NEW YEAR/S DAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
EARLIER TODAY IS DEPARTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDY SKIES AND FLURRIES THROUGH THIS
EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES. MEANWHILE...A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
REACHING NORTHEAST OHIO BY NEW YEAR/S MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...BECOMING
HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SYSTEM DEPARTS
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO NEW YORK AND
VERMONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 335 PM EST MONDAY...500MB VORT AXIS HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING PER RADAR
TRENDS. SWLY/WLY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR FLURRIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT THEREAFTER BUILDING MID-LVL HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD ALLOW PCPN TO END WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVC...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE ADIRONDACKS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALSO NEAR THE
CT RIVER VALLEY EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID
TEENS TO LOW 20S.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 335 PM EST MONDAY

HAVE UPDATED WINTER STORM WATCH TO WINTER STORM WARNING WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE ACROSS ENTIRE CWA. DIGGING/VIGOROUS UPR TROUGH
NOW VCNTY MID MS RIVER VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD TO NERN OH BY 12Z TUESDAY. ORGANIZED 750MB THETA-E
AXIS EAST AND WRAPPING NEWD OF CLOSED 700MB LOW WILL ADVECT
MOISTURE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH AMPLE MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP QUICKLY
FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA...AROUND 15Z IN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY...AROUND 17Z IN THE CHAMPLAIN VLY...AND BY 18-19Z ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF VT. MODEL TIME-HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE
EXCELLENT DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL TOMORROW AFTN WITH STRONG
UVV JUXTAPOSED WITH DEEP/SATURATED -12C TO -18C LAYER. CERTAINLY
SEE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF 1-2 INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD 4-6 INCH SNOWFALL BY SUNSET
TUESDAY. ONLY OTHER ISSUE WOULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE WRN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 13-18Z TUESDAY. SELY WINDS
INCREASE TO 40-50KTS AT 850MB. THIS IS TOO LOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
WIND THREAT AT THE SFC...BUT LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE KRUT
VCNTY AND ALONG WRN SLOPES OF THE GREENS WITH ONSET OF SNOW.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...700MB CLOSED LOW TRACKS ACROSS SRN VT WHILE
SECONDARY SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF ME. NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE TROWAL AIRSTREAM/MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING
WRAPPING INTO N-CENTRAL/NERN VT WHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MAY
BE PROLONGED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WITH HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES
LINGERING LONGER IN N-CENTRAL/NERN VT...HAVE INDICATED STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL OF 8 TO 14 INCHES THERE...WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. IF LOW TRACK IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
NORTH...MAY HAVE A DRY SLOT TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT THAT WOULD CUT
DOWN AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY OVER S-CENTRAL VT. WILL BANK ON THIS DRY
SLOT REMAINING TO THE SOUTH BASED ON 700MB LOW TRACK SHOWN BY 12Z
GFS AND NAM.

OTHERWISE...AS SYSTEM PULLS EAST OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...LOOKING AT STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA WITH
STEEP NEAR-SURFACE LAPSE RATES AS ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH
06Z WED THROUGH 15Z WED AS SNOW TAPERS OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS. WILL
LIKELY SEE BLOWING AND DRIFTING IN OPEN TERRAIN AREAS FOR A FEW
HRS AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN. WITH CAA CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN STEADY IN THE UPR TEENS FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND LOW TEENS IN THE
1000-2000 FT ELEVATION BAND. LOW-LEVEL DRYING WILL QUICKLY LIMIT
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO THE MOUNTAINS AND WRN
SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLD WITH DECREASING WIND. SOME RESIDUAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
TO SOME DEGREE. THAT SAID...WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES NEAR
502-504DM AND 850MB TEMPS -18C TO -20C...WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD
LOW TEMPERATURE READINGS -5F TO +2F...WITH SOME -10F READINGS IN
NERN VT AND THE NRN ADIRONDACKS POSSIBLE.

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

2-4 inches expected for the POE-conos..fresh Poe for New Years..mad Edgar Allen..

Wow..the radar is looking good in Ohio and Indiana..things might get a little deep. It's a shame I didn't buy those Pontoons on sale for 6 bills back in September they'd come in handy tomorrow for maximum float..Ya Heard

[billski]

This is exhaustingly wonderful. I'm dog tired and will take off NYD simply for that reason. But the APB suggests all AZ'ers will be on duty for Wednesday. Note to self, get sick notice posted, but not TOO early.
Thanks Scott.

[Greg]

29.1*F and some very fine snow just started. Looks like we're going to bust with only 1-3" expected with perhaps some rain... Looks decent further north. Berkshire East, Snow and Magic looks like the places to be tomorrow.

[Warp Daddy]

6 inches lite pow yesterday


THEN its coming down hard and fast as i write this another 6 inches POW overnite and this am and an additional 6 expected the resat of the duration thru tomorrow am !!!!

[Greg]

29.8*F and big fat flakes now.