| If you pay attention to Roemer:
:14 AM Friday, February 25. IT'S COMING!!
***MARCH MAY COME IN LIKE A LION BURIED IN SNOW***
We've turned on the keys to a late February-early March snow engine that shows no signs of going idle for at least a week or two, and possibly for the entire month of March. Next week's storm has the potential for being the biggest snow event since December 2003 when two storms produced between 30-40 inches here.
I have been getting pounded with e-mails and questions about this upcoming storm, and many of you want to, and should book reservations in the Warren-Waitsfield area as early as possible… so here it goes:
A primary U.S. computer model that all meteorologists look at, including the National Weather Service, has "consistently" been calling for a major nor'easter here all week for next Tuesday. One particular model that helped me forecast the recent 3-4 foot snows the last two weeks at Sugarbush is coming around to this U.S. model.
I went back and looked at historical wind currents at 15,000 feet. One particular historical weather pattern that might have compared was March 1971 when 80-plus inches fell across parts of Vermont. I also looked at March 14th, 1984 when 2-3 feet fell here in 36 hours.
Though there will be some adjustment in next week’s storm track, what I am most impressed with is the upper-level dynamics of this coming storm. In October 2000 we had 24" here due to a very cold pool of air aloft sitting over us for 48 hours, while at the surface, temperatures and dew points were laden with moisture. This has actually happened a couple times since 2000 with several 8-14" snow events in the Valley.
There are two maps (forthcoming) that show possible scenarios for next week.
The first map (1friday) shows two low pressure areas by Monday afternoon. The primary low is over Indiana and Ohio and the secondary one over North Carolina. If the primary one takes over, 6-12" of snow will fall here. If the secondary storm takes over and moves east of Cape Cod (most likely scenario), then 1-2 feet of snow will fall here Monday night and/or all day Tuesday--this is the way I am leaning right now. But that is not it!!
The next map (gfs 500) shows a very cold, incredibly dynamic upper level cold air mass by Tuesday night and Wednesday—the one similar to the October 2000 jet stream I just mentioned. But it is not going to dry out at the low levels for several days. In other words, temperatures will be in the 20s through probably Wednesday or even early Thursday but well below zero at 15,000 feet. Hence, orographic type snows could result in another foot-plus of snow here "after" the storm goes by later Tuesday-Wednesday evening.
If temperatures are in the teens next week, we could get 40-50 inches of snow here over a 2-3 day period.
MY FORECAST IS THIS---
80% chance of 12-18" later Monday night-Wednesday evening; 60% chance of 18-26"; 35% of 26-36"
Break-out your fat skis; it’s going to be a BIG ONE!!
Monday, February 21, Morning Update
* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE 1916 ANALOG HOLDS TRUE WITH NORMAL-ABOVE NORMAL SNOWFALL LIKELY INTO EARLY MARCH
For much of the first half of the winter I have been playing things down due to a generally mediocre, El Nino based weather pattern but now I'm playing things up - there will be more snow here than others are forecasting.
With my expected active, snowy weather pattern for the area for the next 10 days, in which 6 days or more will feature colder than normal temperatures and at least a little snow, I thought it would be appropriate to glorify what will continue to be the finest skiing of the winter. A little description by Snowflake Bentley this morning.
"Under the microscope, I found that snowflakes were miracles of beauty; and it seemed a shame that this beauty should not be seen and appreciated by others. Every crystal was a masterpiece of design and no one design was ever repeated., When a snowflake melted, that design was forever lost. Just that much beauty was gone, without leaving any record behind."
Warm-moist air is over-riding cold air at the surface today from the southwest. With cold high pressure parked over eastern Canada, temperatures will not be able to rise out of the teens to near 20 degrees. This will keep the snow to water content quite high across the region right into next week. Most of the heavier snow today will be tapering to off and on light snow this afternoon.
For today, instead of the center of this moist air moving over us and producing heavy snow, a secondary low pressure system will develop east of Long Island later today and temporarily rob some of the moisture over New England. But don't despair. A secondary wave behind this system will produce several more inches of snow here tomorrow, so that total snowfall amounts from these systems will be in the 10-16"+ range by tomorrow evening or early Wednesday morning.
But that's not it. The map for March 2nd, less than 3 weeks from spring, reveals the 'perfect' weather pattern for us to see off and on light snow right into the middle part of next week. It reveals strong low pressure aloft parked over eastern Quebec. The "519" circle represents colder than normal air, in which temperatures will average 4-7 degrees below normal here for at least 6 of the next 10 days. One can see the solid lines and how they take a trajectory out of the southwest (moist) from about 7:00 o'clock to 1:00 o'clock. Hence, cold air aloft and at the surface and a southwest flow suggest several additional weather systems, each one dropping 1-4" of snow here, later this week or early this weekend and again before the middle of next week. If this flow turns even more out of the south, one modest- major nor'easter could affect us later Friday or Saturday. Combine this with the snowfall the next 36 hours and I look for 16-24" over the next 10 days. There is a chance we could have slightly more than this, but I will keep this projection for now.
Roemer |