The Official 1/14 Storm Discussion Thread

drjeff · Jan 10, 2008, 11:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by billski

too many words. what did he say?

Depends where you live Sun/Mon about whether it's wet or white, then maybe another storm Tues/Wed (more likely to be white) and that storm looks like it will bring a pattern change that get's us back in the cold air for the rest of the month

SKIQUATTRO · Jan 10, 2008, 3:50 PM

the Cliff Note Version: Chances are there will be weather on Sunday Monday Tuesday. Its amazing that Weathermen/women have insurance policies that protect them from giving an incorrect forecast...its a tough biz

I'm ski burning tonight.....some old K2 Fours and Atomics.....there WILL BE SNOW!!!!

from_the_NEK · Jan 10, 2008, 4:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greg

Whoa.

I'm retarded. Not only did I think that MLK Day was this coming Monday, but I started a storm discussion thread about it... Merged and threat title fixed.

Purely more wild speculation... Looks like the GFS has something big in store for the 20-21st, which happens to be MLK weekend. Therefore, you may only be slightly retarded (or maybe you can just see that far into the future

)

loafer89 · Jan 11, 2008, 10:59 AM

Oh goodie, excellent skiing conditions in my backyard:

Snow Map--Low Confidence for Now
Friday, January 11, 2008

HERE'S MY FIRST GUESS AT THE SNOW MAP FOR THE SUNDAY-MONDAY STORM.
I probably should not post the map yet with all the doubt on the track of the storm, but it seems to me the models are coming into a consensus that the track will remain off the coast and that the storm ends up being a I-95 corridor storm. I know that opens up a lot of debate on the p-type given the fact the storms have produced mixed precip in that area. My confidence level is low on the forecast at this time, but it at least is a first guess as to what might happen. I am sure as we go through the next 24 hours we will see various solutions on the track of the storm.
One of the issues with the storm is the clipper coming across the Great Lakes and the role that clipper plays in the track of the storm. I think the GFS is trying to make a lot out of that clipper, which in turn pushes the storm farther out to sea. That might be correct, but again, it might not. The map below is based on that clipper being stronger and nudging the storm eastward.

**Greg** · Jan 11, 2008, 11:02 AM

Still a few days away. Things can change...in either direction.

**bvibert** · Jan 11, 2008, 11:41 AM

I know it's not ideal for the northern guys, but I'll take 3-6" at Sundown to get things going again...

SKIQUATTRO · Jan 11, 2008, 11:41 AM

Of course....I'm leaving for Smuggs this afternnon for 5 days...now LI is on track, but Smuggs is off....I cant win here!!!! hopefully it'll swing back west and dump!!!

loafer89 · Jan 11, 2008, 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greg

Still a few days away. Things can change...in either direction.

And they most likely will, to a storm even further offshore.

At the very least Eastern C.T may get some snow to cover up all the mud and ugly browish colored snow that remains.

I still have a week before we go ice skating at sugarloaf, maybe a miracle will happen.

**Greg** · Jan 11, 2008, 12:43 PM

Looks like Worcester is forecasted to get about 0.8" of precipitation in the form of snow Sunday into Monday:

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.ph...ent&field=prec

Looks like the mighty WaWa wins out for this one......so far...

loafer89 · Jan 11, 2008, 1:56 PM

Right now we have the typical weather that one would expect for early January, such as thunder, lightning and heavy rain

Jan 10, 2008, 3:50 PM	#22 (permalink)
SKIQUATTRO Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: LI, NY Posts: 1,443	the Cliff Note Version: Chances are there will be weather on Sunday Monday Tuesday. Its amazing that Weathermen/women have insurance policies that protect them from giving an incorrect forecast...its a tough biz I'm ski burning tonight.....some old K2 Fours and Atomics.....there WILL BE SNOW!!!! __________________ updownupdownupdownupdown

Jan 11, 2008, 10:59 AM	#24 (permalink)
loafer89 Sugarloaf Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Coventry, C.T Posts: 3,551	Oh goodie, excellent skiing conditions in my backyard: Snow Map--Low Confidence for Now Friday, January 11, 2008 HERE'S MY FIRST GUESS AT THE SNOW MAP FOR THE SUNDAY-MONDAY STORM. I probably should not post the map yet with all the doubt on the track of the storm, but it seems to me the models are coming into a consensus that the track will remain off the coast and that the storm ends up being a I-95 corridor storm. I know that opens up a lot of debate on the p-type given the fact the storms have produced mixed precip in that area. My confidence level is low on the forecast at this time, but it at least is a first guess as to what might happen. I am sure as we go through the next 24 hours we will see various solutions on the track of the storm. One of the issues with the storm is the clipper coming across the Great Lakes and the role that clipper plays in the track of the storm. I think the GFS is trying to make a lot out of that clipper, which in turn pushes the storm farther out to sea. That might be correct, but again, it might not. The map below is based on that clipper being stronger and nudging the storm eastward. __________________ Ski School - A place where novices are turned into menaces.

Jan 11, 2008, 11:02 AM	#25 (permalink)
Greg Nassahegan, CT: 8/14 Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: Thomaston, CT Posts: 20,308	Still a few days away. Things can change...in either direction. __________________ Greg 2007-08, 2006-07, 2005-06, 2004-05 Life's too short for warm up runs.

Jan 11, 2008, 11:41 AM	#26 (permalink)
bvibert West Hartford Res 6/22/08 Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Torrington, CT Posts: 11,782	I know it's not ideal for the northern guys, but I'll take 3-6" at Sundown to get things going again... __________________ Brian SAC Tracker

Jan 11, 2008, 11:41 AM	#27 (permalink)
SKIQUATTRO Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: LI, NY Posts: 1,443	Of course....I'm leaving for Smuggs this afternnon for 5 days...now LI is on track, but Smuggs is off....I cant win here!!!! hopefully it'll swing back west and dump!!! __________________ updownupdownupdownupdown

Jan 11, 2008, 12:43 PM	#29 (permalink)
Greg Nassahegan, CT: 8/14 Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: Thomaston, CT Posts: 20,308	Looks like Worcester is forecasted to get about 0.8" of precipitation in the form of snow Sunday into Monday: http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.ph...ent&field=prec Looks like the mighty WaWa wins out for this one......so far... __________________ Greg 2007-08, 2006-07, 2005-06, 2004-05 Life's too short for warm up runs.

Jan 11, 2008, 1:56 PM	#30 (permalink)
loafer89 Sugarloaf Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Coventry, C.T Posts: 3,551	Right now we have the typical weather that one would expect for early January, such as thunder, lightning and heavy rain __________________ Ski School - A place where novices are turned into menaces.

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