The Official 1/14 Storm Discussion Thread

[ajl50]

That map ain't right. This storm is too fast for those accums.
I don't buy it.

[loafer89]

NOAA says I can expect 7"-15" from this storm, but that is quite a large spread in snowfall accumulation.

[loafer89]

Powder day at Yagoo Valley

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW.
FROM CLIMATOLOGY...A TRACK OVER THE BENCHMARK SHOULD BRING THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO NORTHEAST CT-NORTHWEST RI-BOSTON METROWEST AND
METRONORTH.

[billski]

Originally Posted by nelsapbm

We just got put under a watch for 6+.....is this thing heading more north/inland than originally thought? I havent paid much attention to the weather/news lately.....

a watch (means there is a probability) is different from a warning (means it's likely). There is no watch for Burlington. Where are you?

NWS maps suggest that while 6+ is a possibility, its a low probability. Burlington is on the outer limit of that watch.

The way I read, central vt. may see as much as 6 inches tops, but 2-4 is more likely. It's a southern new england storm, tracking from CT and MA then NE to coastal ME. CT, MA and SE NY (i.e. Hunter) stand to be the winners.

[billski]

Originally Posted by loafer89

NOAA says I can expect 7"-15" from this storm, but that is quite a large spread in snowfall accumulation.

that's why I say look at the probabilities. Best way to read a range like this is, 7 is most probable, 15 is a stretch, the actual amount will be somewhere in between, probably on the lower end.

[billski]

Originally Posted by ajl50

That map ain't right. This storm is too fast for those accums.
I don't buy it.

which map?

[Greg]

wxrisk.com last call:

http://wxrisk.com/LASTCALL.jpg

De-hyped things a bit and dropped the 'up to 18"'. Only a single "woof" now too....

[nelsapbm]

I'm about 17 miles from Burlington....yup....we're on the cusp of the watch. At least the mts will get some which is what matters most!

[loafer89]

NOAA says 3-7" tonight and 4-8" tomorrow for my town with the local weather forecasters calling for a general 8-14" across Northern Connecticut.

[billski]

a very handsome watches and warnings map from NOAA Storm Prediction Center
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa/wwa.gif