Winter Part II Coming to a Mtn Near You

[powderfreak]

I don't have a lot of time today but I am gaining increasing confidence on a
significant arctic outbreak after January 20th. We'll be done with warmth
and mixed precipitation after the event tomorrow (which BTW, looks like very
minor snow accums before a dose of rain) and I am keying in on what could be
a significant east coast storm on Monday. The European has been bringing in
a moderate snowstorm for the North Country while the GFS just nailed the
I-95 corridor on the 12z run, leaving us with only light amounts of
snowfall. Seasonal trend has been for a further NW track which still leaves
a chance at a moderate to significant snowfall for us on Monday. Storm will
be a quick mover with max amounts of 6-12" where ever the best frontogenesis
sets up. Keep an eye on that one.

Then we've got seasonal temperatures next week with occasional snow showers.
It may still end up being above normal next week, but a high of 30F and a
low of 20F is above normal at BTV...so keep that in mind. I believe we'll
stay below freezing all next week.

The cold is currently re-loading in northern Canada. Cross-polar flow looks
to set up and our major indexes (NAO/AO/PNA) look to fall in a favorable
manner by the end of the month. Just like this last warm spell, I'm feeling
a fairly high confidence forecast here and we will get very cold towards Feb
1st. Its going to take a big storm to bring this cold air in and the best
chance looks to be within a few days of Jan 20th. The best part about what
I'm seeing with the cold pattern is, while we'll be too cold for southern
jet stream big, juicy lows to effect us, the northern jet will be nearby and
a clipper pattern is what I'm seeing. I think we all know what arctic cold
and daily light snows in the mtns can do...

Ski season II will be coming very soon. We'll start next week and it might
be slow at first, but I think by Feb 1st, we'll have forgotten this whole
thing even happened.

-Scott

ps: I'll be on the Pacific coast so updates through Jan 18 will be sporadic.

[Greg]

Sounds good. December through the first week of January was just practice. Now it's time to get serious!

[SKIQUATTRO]

C'mon on Sun/Mon....will be at Smuggs....burning some old K2's and Atomics tonight!

[drjeff]

I'd bet 100% on the real cold talked about for sometime around February 1st. If for no other reason than I have a conference that I attend each and every late January/ early February in Boston where just about every year it's ridiculously cold, windy and often stormy right around the time of the conference. The dates of the conference this year, January 31st- February 2nd! Coincidence, well since this will be my 12th year going to this conference and it's just about the same weather wise each time, I think not!

[ALLSKIING]

Great news!! Thanks Scott.

[dmc]

bring it....

[loafer89]

NOAA is more or less about to drop the idea of a snowstorm of any consequence for the sunday-monday time frame and the snow has now turned to rain at Sugarloaf with bands of heavy rain and or freezing rain yet to move through.

Besides that everything looks peachy to me

[Greg]

Originally Posted by loafer89

NOAA is more or less about to drop the idea of a snowstorm of any consequence for the sunday-monday time frame and the snow has now turned to rain at Sugarloaf with bands of heavy rain and or freezing rain yet to move through.

I'm no expert, but I've been following things on the Eastern Wx Forums pretty closely lately. It seems the latest models have the storm swinging wide right out to sea. It's my understanding though that each storm so far this season has ended up further West than expected. There is still hope and Sun/Mon is still worth watching.

[loafer89]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
338 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2008

MEZ008-009-013-014-121000-
NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-
SOUTHERN SOMERSET-
338 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2008



THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF SIX INCHES OR
MORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...HOWEVER...IT IS BECOMING LESS
LIKELY...AS FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE
STORM WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
623 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2008


SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...00Z OPERATIONAL GFS...00Z ECMWF...00Z
CANADIAN GGEM HAVE ALL TRENDED EAST WITH A WEAKER SURFACE LOW
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW
REGARDING THE IMPACT OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW ACROSS THE
REGION. RECENTLY THERE WERE ONLY TWO GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATING
A SURFACE LOW TRACK JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK. GENERALLY RELIED ON
THE 12Z ECMWF AT THIS TIME AS A COMPROMISE SOLUTION FAVORED BY HPC.
DELIBERATED ABOUT LOWERING LIKELY POPS TO CHANCE...BUT GIVEN MODEL
INCONSISTENCY AND LACK OF AGREEMENT DECIDED TO STAY WITH PERSISTENCE.
ONCE THE PACIFIC ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW MAKES
LANDFALL UNTIL AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING WE MAY BEGIN TO HAVE A BETTER
MODEL CONSENSUS. CURRENTLY USED THE 12Z ECMWFQPF AMOUNTS WHICH
YIELD LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH SNOW PERHAPS MIXING WITH RAIN
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
654 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2008

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH THE COASTAL LOW
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SHOULD THIS TREND CONTINUE...THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL BECOME LESS
LIKELY...PERHAPS EVEN LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST. UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE ENERGY THAT WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE AMPLIFYING
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND IS JUST
COMING ASHORE THIS MORNING. PREFER TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE 12Z CYCLE
TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT WILL BE TO
LOWER THE POPS FROM LIKELY TO CHC. THE HWO WILL CONTINUE TO
ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
PLEASE KEEP IN MIND THOUGH THAT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MAY OCCUR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED TRENDS.

Good bye storm, you where a nice fantasy while you lasted

[ajl50]

I like clipper patterns more than anything
a few 3-6 inch snows a week is pure gold.
I amost prefer that pattern once a base is down as it doesn't prevent travel problems, the mountain is in great shape and there is no chance for a warm up.