THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SEVERAL BRIEF
TROUGH AMPLIFICATIONS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LOOKING AT THE
DETAILS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING A RETURN TO MID WINTER CHILL. GFS/ECMWF ARE
DIVERGING SOMEWHAT ON THE DETAILS OF THE SURFACE PATTERN
EVOLUTION...WITH THE ECMWF DEEPER AND A LITTLE FARTHER WEST WITH THE
SURFACE LOW...AND ALSO COLDER AT 850MB. ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST MORE OF
A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND LAKE EFFECT CHANCES NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO. GFS IS NOT AS COLD AT 850MB AND NOT AS AMPLIFIED...WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY AND LAKE EFFECT IN
THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOWBELTS.
GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL CONSISTENCY IN THE DETAILS AND INHERENT
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME RANGE...IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO BE SPECIFIC
ON EXACT LOCATION/INTENSITY...BUT THIS COULD BE ANOTHER STRONG LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENT GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND VERY FAVORABLE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD SHUT OFF BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKES.
has been very good the last week
