The Official 2/6 - 2/7 Storm Discussion Thread

[powderfreak]

This two day period of Tuesday and Wednesday was looking extremely bleak
even 36 hours ago with 40s and periods of heavy rain for both days. Now,
we've got a general 3-7" along the Green Mountain spine and eastward. New
Hampshire was really the winner here with more widespread 5-8" in central
New Hampshire. The situation for tomorrow is pretty tricky, though.

A cold front will slowly sag southward tonight and appears to set up
somewhere in the vicinity of Glens Falls-Rutland-Lebanon-North Conway...or
slightly north of that line. Snow will fall north of that area with a
possible mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain in and around that line.
South of there, sleet, freezing rain and rain will be the rule for Wednesday.

Precipitation will come in two waves, a heavy burst of snow should drop an
initial 2-5" late Wednesday morning before tapering off during the
afternoon. Snow will then redevelop Wednesday evening with an additional
2-3" on Wednesday night. Total 24hr accumulations by 7am Thursday will be
4-8" at the ski resorts from SB/MRG northward. South of there, it will get
cold enough to snow on Wednesday night with 2-4" from Killington to Mt. Snow
for Thursday morning. Here in the Champlain Valley, I'm expecting 3-6" of
total snowfall by Thursday morning.

This snowfall will bring two-day totals to near a foot in many spots and I
suspect the SB-Jay corridor total is somewhere around 10-14". Of course,
its warmed up a little bit with scattered rain showers this afternoon, but
this denser snow will cover up the ice nicely while building the base.

Another decent snow producer looks pegged for Saturday night and Sunday as a
clipper dives into the Ohio Valley and redevelops off the New England coast.
Models want to stall this in the Maritimes and if the last three runs of
the GFS are near-correct, we could have a decent widespread clipper snow
event transition to a significant upslope snowstorm late Sunday into Monday.
The overall synoptic features are falling into place for snow to fall from
Saturday night into Monday in the mountains with potentially heavy
accumulations. Stay Tuned.

-Scott

[Greg]

Originally Posted by powderfreak

Total 24hr accumulations by 7am Thursday will be
4-8" at the ski resorts from SB/MRG northward. South of there, it will get
cold enough to snow on Wednesday night with 2-4" from Killington to Mt. Snow
for Thursday morning. Here in the Champlain Valley, I'm expecting 3-6" of
total snowfall by Thursday morning.

This snowfall will bring two-day totals to near a foot in many spots and I
suspect the SB-Jay corridor total is somewhere around 10-14". Of course,
its warmed up a little bit with scattered rain showers this afternoon, but
this denser snow will cover up the ice nicely while building the base.

You've made my day.

[powderfreak]

Originally Posted by Greg

You've made my day.

My mood regarding the next week has done a 180. I was pretty down about the weekend conditions up here as I have family visiting Thursday night through Sunday; we'll be at Stowe on Friday and Saturday. I was expecting an ugly situation but with a net foot expected by Thursday morning...maybe some snow showers Friday...and then I'm pretty excited about the situation on the GFS and Canadian progs for significant mountain snowfall later in the weekend.

I think we might be turning it around here...

-Scott

[Greg]

Originally Posted by powderfreak

I think we might be turning it around here...

Sweet! This is probably pretty academic for you Scott, but this is a neat site that charts out the precip and type based on various models:

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.ph...ent&field=prec

That's for the Barre area and the GFS and indicates a liquid equivalent of 1.5"+ of mostly snow between now and Friday. More for the weekend!

[powderfreak]

Originally Posted by Greg

Sweet! This is probably pretty academic for you Scott, but this is a neat site that charts out the precip and type based on various models:

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.ph...ent&field=prec

That's for the Barre area and the GFS and indicates a liquid equivalent of 1.5"+ of mostly snow between now and Friday. More for the weekend!

Greg...the coolwx site is great for model data. I've been using it all morning and usually get quite a bit of information off it. Its also got great temperature profiles and analysis that makes it easy to visualize what's going on in the atmosphere. The Temperature (Lower) option is great to see what the mountain will be experiencing as our summit levels are usually near between the 875mb-850mb level. Its easy to gage temps based on that.

Great site and I'd recommend it to anyone interested in this type of stuff.

-Scott

[ajl50]

I heart you.

[lerops]

powderfreak,

what's the source of this report? just asking so I could bookmark it. many weather reports don't specifically mention ski areas, so this look good.

[Greg]

Originally Posted by lerops

powderfreak,

what's the source of this report? just asking so I could bookmark it. many weather reports don't specifically mention ski areas, so this look good.

Scott typically posts his own reports based on model data and experience with trends on how things usually develop at and around various NNE ski areas. So I guess I'm saying bookmark this forum...

[WJenness]

That's all I have to say about that.

-w

[WJenness]

Originally Posted by powderfreak

This two day period of Tuesday and Wednesday was looking extremely bleak
even 36 hours ago with 40s and periods of heavy rain for both days. Now,
we've got a general 3-7" along the Green Mountain spine and eastward. New
Hampshire was really the winner here with more widespread 5-8" in central
New Hampshire. The situation for tomorrow is pretty tricky, though.

A cold front will slowly sag southward tonight and appears to set up
somewhere in the vicinity of Glens Falls-Rutland-Lebanon-North Conway...or
slightly north of that line. Snow will fall north of that area with a
possible mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain in and around that line.
South of there, sleet, freezing rain and rain will be the rule for Wednesday.

Precipitation will come in two waves, a heavy burst of snow should drop an
initial 2-5" late Wednesday morning before tapering off during the
afternoon. Snow will then redevelop Wednesday evening with an additional
2-3" on Wednesday night. Total 24hr accumulations by 7am Thursday will be
4-8" at the ski resorts from SB/MRG northward. South of there, it will get
cold enough to snow on Wednesday night with 2-4" from Killington to Mt. Snow
for Thursday morning. Here in the Champlain Valley, I'm expecting 3-6" of
total snowfall by Thursday morning.

This snowfall will bring two-day totals to near a foot in many spots and I
suspect the SB-Jay corridor total is somewhere around 10-14". Of course,
its warmed up a little bit with scattered rain showers this afternoon, but
this denser snow will cover up the ice nicely while building the base.

Another decent snow producer looks pegged for Saturday night and Sunday as a
clipper dives into the Ohio Valley and redevelops off the New England coast.
Models want to stall this in the Maritimes and if the last three runs of
the GFS are near-correct, we could have a decent widespread clipper snow
event transition to a significant upslope snowstorm late Sunday into Monday.
The overall synoptic features are falling into place for snow to fall from
Saturday night into Monday in the mountains with potentially heavy
accumulations. Stay Tuned.

-Scott

If I can bug you... How does the snow / sleet / NCP line look for Lincoln, NH (Loon specifically). Girlfriend and I are going there on Saturday, and I'm wondering if I should make sure my edges are nice and sharp...

-w