The Official 2/12 - 2/13 Storm Discussion Thread

[noski]

MRV is expecting 8-14" Tuesday into overnight and Weds am. Beautiful day Thursday. Keep your weather eye to Saturday 2/16.

[bvibert]

Originally Posted by Greg

Looks probable so I upgraded the thread to "official" Winter Storm Watch for SoVT:

AWESOME!

[ajl50]

this will happen because I'm driving to LP wed night. Everytime I need to drive somewhere to ski the weather gets nasty...

[noski]

Originally Posted by ajl50

this will happen because I'm driving to LP wed night. Everytime I need to drive somewhere to ski the weather gets nasty...

You may be ok. It is not forecast to start until after the evening commute tuesday and wrap up mid day Weds. Possible breaks of sun in the afternoon Weds. Heaviest snow Weds morning. Drive safe!

[powderfreak]

A 12-hour precipitation event is expected to yield a general 5-9" snowfall across central and northern Vermont with 8-14" possible in the higher terrain along the central Green Mountain spine. I'll be looking for Killington, Sugarbush, and Mad River Glen to verify these higher amounts. The time frame is from tomorrow evening till Wednesday morning. I expect snow to overspread the region tomorrow evening between 7pm and 10pm with snow becoming heavy at times during the overnight hours. Snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour are possible for an extended period in the central Green Mountains with occasional 1"+ rates from I-89 northward. Needless to say, all of this snow will likely fall while the lifts are closed so Wednesday morning should be pretty sweet.

Warm air advection will be the main driver of the snowfall as warmer air between H8 and H7 overrides this arctic airmass currently in place. I'm seeing favorable snow growth for this system so will follow ratios of 12-14:1. Arctic air in the boundary layer should allow for immediate accumulation on all surfaces, too. Good upper level divergence and H7 frontogenesis is maximized across central Vermont back towards the southern Adirondacks. The 4km BTV WFR model is indicating two meso-scale bands possible...one across central Vermont and the other stretching from near Jay Peak to BTV to Oswego, NY. It'll be interesting to see if there is an enhanced area of snowfall removed to the north away from the heaviest precipitation across central/southern VT.

I'll have another update tonight but it this looks like a fun, quick hitting snowfall that'll add another layer of pow. Might want to make plans for Wednesday...

-Scott

[noski]

Originally Posted by powderfreak

A 12-hour precipitation event is expected to yield a general 5-9" snowfall across central and northern Vermont with 8-14" possible in the higher terrain along the central Green Mountain spine. I'll be looking for Killington, Sugarbush, and Mad River Glen to verify these higher amounts. The time frame is from tomorrow evening till Wednesday morning. I expect snow to overspread the region tomorrow evening between 7pm and 10pm with snow becoming heavy at times during the overnight hours. Snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour are possible for an extended period in the central Green Mountains with occasional 1"+ rates from I-89 northward. Needless to say, all of this snow will likely fall while the lifts are closed so Wednesday morning should be pretty sweet.

Warm air advection will be the main driver of the snowfall as warmer air between H8 and H7 overrides this arctic airmass currently in place. I'm seeing favorable snow growth for this system so will follow ratios of 12-14:1. Arctic air in the boundary layer should allow for immediate accumulation on all surfaces, too. Good upper level divergence and H7 frontogenesis is maximized across central Vermont back towards the southern Adirondacks. The 4km BTV WFR model is indicating two meso-scale bands possible...one across central Vermont and the other stretching from near Jay Peak to BTV to Oswego, NY. It'll be interesting to see if there is an enhanced area of snowfall removed to the north away from the heaviest precipitation across central/southern VT.

I'll have another update tonight but it this looks like a fun, quick hitting snowfall that'll add another layer of pow. Might want to make plans for Wednesday...

-Scott

Yea! What he said!

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

Winter Storm watch for eastern PA..for Snow changing to sleet and then freezing rain...this storm could be a real humdinger...it will be nice to see the ground white again...there were even little flowers blooming across the street from my work in a sunny south facing area...but they're probably dead since it was 5 degrees this morning...maybe some fresh Poe tomorrow night at Blue mountain..Holla

[Zand]

GSS is ready to ski some more Edgar Allen Poe.

They're still indecisive on what we're getting here and how much. Sounds like a good 3-6" of snow tomorrow night, then changing to ice for a long while and then maybe ending as rain or snow. Should be a royal mess in this area Wednesday morning. I might put off a Wachusett trip till Thursday if tomorrow night looks bad enough. This should REALLY get me into Berkshire East mode for Presidents Day.

[BLESS]

any updates on the jackson, north conway areas?

[bigbog]

...looks like another nice week ahead for northern New England...