| Sorry, this is mainly for the Adirondacks and Vermont.
The more I look at this, more impressed I am but yet fearful at the
same time. I am confident now in more than a moderate (4-8") snowfall
and that we will all be realizing over 8" by 6pm Wednesday. The
northern Adirondacks and northern Green Mountains could see some very
significant totals thanks to surface low track, a well developed
deformation zone on Wednesday, plus favorable upslope enhancement.
Low pressure is going to track from the Ohio Valley to northeast PA
and then across central/southern New England, intensifying as it
reaches the coastline between Boston and Portland. I've examined the
latest upper air model data and am quite impressed with the upper
level support this storm will have. A developing duel-jet structure
will maximize divergence aloft over the interior northeast. Thus, I
am expecting a fairly heavy precipitation event with liquid amounts
ranging from .75"-1.5".
Precipitation types will be difficult to pin down, but I think north
of I-89 its all snow. South of I-89 will become elevation dependent
for a time with all snow above 1,000ft-1,500ft in the Killington to
Sugarbush corridor. Some rain may mix in on Tuesday evening and the
first part of Tuesday night in the low elevations from BTV on south.
I was perusing the MOS data (model output statistics) which tweaks
current model output based on past events with similar environmental
conditions. It does warm BTV and RUT up enough for plain rain at
33-34F late on Tuesday before the cold air rushes in...arguing for
some elevation dependence during the first half of this storm system.
I've seen this happen in the Champlain Valley several times already
this season as warm air moves up the valley from the south.
The bottom line at this juncture...
This will be a significant storm system with snow beginning after 12pm
on Tuesday, becoming heavy at times into Tuesday evening. Snow will
mix with rain at lower elevations on Tuesday evening and early Tuesday
night...especially during times of lighter precipitation.
Precipitation will taper off for a time as the low passes us at some
point on Tuesday night. Then, everyone goes back to all snow by early
Wednesday morning...with snow, heavy at times, through noon on
Wednesday. Light/moderate snow will continue in the northern
Adirondacks and northern Green Mountains for the rest of the day.
Elsewhere, after noon on Wednesday the snow will be more intermittent.
Total accums at the ski areas (higher elevations), 7-15" in central
Vermont (Killington to Sugarbush), 10-18" in northern Vermont (N of
I89), and 10-18" in the Adirondacks look possible. Here in
Burlington, looking like 6-12".
For skiing/riding conditions this storm looks to be about perfect with
wetter/denser snow during the first half, then light 'n fluffy with
high ratios during the second half. This will hide the crusty and
unpredictable stuff nicely. However, wind hold is a possibility on
Wednesday (mainly afternoon) but doesn't look like a given.
Driving on Wednesday morning could be real fun with dropping
temperatures, increasing wind, and possibly increasing snowfall rates
even though precipitation rates slightly wane (due to much better
dendrite growth temps).
It won't be a true blockbuster, but its another storm system to add to
the very healthy snowfall totals we've seen across the region this
season. Burlington's already a foot above the seasonal average with
another month and a half of accumulating potential.
-Scott |