The Official 2/26 - 2/27 Storm Discussion Thread

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

serious stoke!!!

[billski]

Scott - at what mph does wind become a wind-hold factor, generally speaking? NWS is predicting 15mph, but I know at higher el's it is usually more. I know it depends on the mountain, lift type, facing, blah, blah, blah. Just a general rule of thumb.

[NH24fan]

I'll be at Stowe all week, leaving in 3 hours. Will porbably go to Jay one day, perhaps Thursday after the snow finishes.

[BLESS]

Originally Posted by billski

don't get too excited now

I'll be driving up in it, but who gives a sh*t! YESSSSIIIRR.

[billski]

I'm thinking about coming up Tuesday afternoon and bunking at Golden Lion in MRV

[BLESS]

probably a good idea..... unfotunately won't be there till wed, save some freshies.

[reefer]

Originally Posted by danny p

powderfreak, your reports/forecasts are very much appreciated. thanks again!!

Ditto Scott! Very informative....................

[Greg]

The forecast has even improved for SoVT:

.......SO EXPECT A
RAIN/SNOW EVENT...WITH TERRAIN BEING A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR AS TO
P-TYPE. RAIN/SNOW MIX LIKELY IN MOST LOCATIONS AT OR BELOW 1000 FEET
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN LIKELY
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY. A
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE
CATSKILLS TO THE BERKSHIRES.

AFTER THE LOW GOES BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...COLDER AIR RETURNS
QUICKLY WITH ALL SNOW EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS FROM MIDNIGHT ON.
ALTHOUGH TIMING/LOCATION IS DIFFERENT...MODELS INDICATE
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL PRODUCE A BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECSAT AREA AND
THE CATSKILLS TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS BAND WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT OUT ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW LINGERS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE...BUT
THE FORCING WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY THEN WITH MAINLY LIGHT SNOW
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS EVENT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF
HEAVY SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...WARRANTS THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER STORM
WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EVEN IF THE SNOW DOES MIX WITH RAIN IN MANY AREAS
FOR A TIME. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

[billski]

Originally Posted by reefer

Ditto Scott! Very informative....................

At end of season (July??? ) We all should make a trip up to Burlington with a Case of Harpoon (or whatever) in appreciation to Scott. He breaks the mold and keeps things honest and close to the sport.

p.s., Scott, don't go corporate!

[Greg]

Originally Posted by Greg

The forecast has even improved for SoVT:

The BVT discussion:

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 318 AM EST MONDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD. WARM AIR
ADVECTION SNOWS BEGIN THE EVENT ON TUESDAY...WITH ANYWHERE FROM 1
TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING THE STRONGER SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING INTO THE
AREA. FRONTOGENESIS BECOMES MAXIMIZED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME DRY ADIABATIC. BUFKIT PROFILES
SHOWING FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF SNOW GROWTH AND OMEGA TO SUPPORT
ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SNOW
GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT WITH DRY SLOT TO THE SOUTH...
DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RIGHT OVER THE AREA AND
THIS SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATING SNOWS GOING. GIVEN MANY FAVORABLE
PARAMETERS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS AND LONGER DURATION OF THIS
EVENT...FEEL A WINTER STORM WATCH IS NECESSARY FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. WITH LOW TRACKING TO THE SOUTH AND WARM LAYER REMAINING JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA...NOT THINKING A LOT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLEET FOR RUTLAND
AND WINDSOR COUNTIES...BUT PROBABILITY MAY BE ON THE LOW SIDE.
WILL RUN THE WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY AND MENTION POTENTIAL FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW.