The Official 2/26 - 2/27 Storm Discussion Thread

[powderfreak]

12z NAM and Parallel NAM from NCEP are big, big hits for the north country.
Upslope parameters with wrap around are maximized on Wednesday
afternoon...should see some 1"-2"/hr snowfall for a time on Tuesday night
before a 6 hour lull Wednesday AM. Then another round of heavy snow,
especially mtns but also maybe BTV area with CPV convergence. The CPV
convergence up against the western shores, plus upslope flow of >25kts at
H85, plus low level cold air advection to increase ratios...we really do not
want this low pressure track to change. If this doesn't change today, I'll
be forecasting 12-24" for the Green Mtn spine, including Sugarbush, Mad
River Glen, Bolton, Stowe, Smuggs, and Jay.

-Scott

[Greg]

Originally Posted by powderfreak

12z NAM and Parallel NAM from NCEP are big, big hits for the north country.
Upslope parameters with wrap around are maximized on Wednesday
afternoon...should see some 1"-2"/hr snowfall for a time on Tuesday night
before a 6 hour lull Wednesday AM. Then another round of heavy snow,
especially mtns but also maybe BTV area with CPV convergence. The CPV
convergence up against the western shores, plus upslope flow of >25kts at
H85, plus low level cold air advection to increase ratios...we really do not
want this low pressure track to change. If this doesn't change today, I'll
be forecasting 12-24" for the Green Mtn spine, including Sugarbush, Mad
River Glen, Bolton, Stowe, Smuggs, and Jay.

-Scott

What are your thoughts for SoVT, Magic specifically? If you had to pick a day, which would it be, Wed or Thurs? Thanks for your time.

[Dr Skimeister]

I've been following this weather event, mainly via NOAA.gov the last few days. The sleet/snow line has consistently moved south over the last few days. Might make a Catskills trip tomorrow.

[powderfreak]

Originally Posted by Greg

What are your thoughts for SoVT, Magic specifically? If you had to pick a day, which would it be, Wed or Thurs? Thanks for your time.

A little bit of a tougher call...but at elevation I'm thinking they stay all snow.

This storm will be different from recent ones in that it'll be fairly black and white without a lot of gray. By that I mean its either rain or snow...I see sleet and freezing rain playing a fairly minor role, if any. That's not to say there won't be pockets of sleet/freezing rain along the transition zone, but it'll be elevation dependent in the transition zone. Temperatures will likely start just above freezing everywhere...but the north will cool to 29-32F as snow develops. In southern Vermont, the Berkshires, Albany area, Catskills and southern tier of NY...I am envisioning a solution that has a rain/snow mix into Tuesday night below 1,500ft south of I90 and 1,000ft north of I90. It wouldn't surprise me if I saw a few rain drops at my house here in Burlington as we are so marginal in the bottom 1K feet. But it'll be snowing from the Blanford Rest Area on the Mass Pike (near that "highest elevation before South Dakota" sign) northward up the Berkshires and Green Mountain spine...just don't get dismayed if its raining at low elevations even north of I-90 tomorrow night for a time.

So the bottom line, Greg...I think Southern Vermont has a 90% chance of all snow above 1,000ft. Thus, the ski areas will be fine. I'd go Wednesday because the bulk will fall there on Tuesday night with some additional accums through early afternoon Wednesday. But that'll be the fresh day. They won't get the backside accums areas further north will get, but would still think 8-14" is a good range for Magic...with the upper numbers allowing for a further shift south in storm track.

[Greg]

Originally Posted by powderfreak

A little bit of a tougher call...but at elevation I'm thinking they stay all snow.

This storm will be different from recent ones in that it'll be fairly black and white without a lot of gray. By that I mean its either rain or snow...I see sleet and freezing rain playing a fairly minor role, if any. That's not to say there won't be pockets of sleet/freezing rain along the transition zone, but it'll be elevation dependent in the transition zone. Temperatures will likely start just above freezing everywhere...but the north will cool to 29-32F as snow develops. In southern Vermont, the Berkshires, Albany area, Catskills and southern tier of NY...I am envisioning a solution that has a rain/snow mix into Tuesday night below 1,500ft south of I90 and 1,000ft north of I90. It wouldn't surprise me if I saw a few rain drops at my house here in Burlington as we are so marginal in the bottom 1K feet. But it'll be snowing from the Blanford Rest Area on the Mass Pike (near that "highest elevation before South Dakota" sign) northward up the Berkshires and Green Mountain spine...just don't get dismayed if its raining at low elevations even north of I-90 tomorrow night for a time.

So the bottom line, Greg...I think Southern Vermont has a 90% chance of all snow above 1,000ft. Thus, the ski areas will be fine. I'd go Wednesday because the bulk will fall there on Tuesday night with some additional accums through early afternoon Wednesday. But that'll be the fresh day. They won't get the backside accums areas further north will get, but would still think 8-14" is a good range for Magic...with the upper numbers allowing for a further shift south in storm track.

Thank you for your insight.

[SKIQUATTRO]

again, why do i live on this island??

[WJenness]

Originally Posted by SKIQUATTRO

again, why do i live on this island??

You think the Throg's Neck Bridge is the gateway to heaven?

You like the risk involved in boarding LIRR trains? (mind the gap)

You're a masochist?

Take your pick...

-w

[JD]

Geez. Vouches to Stowe and MRG. Decisions decisions....Prolly Wednesday MRG, Thursday Stowe, as I know Mansfield better and can get untyracked runs a day or two late. What about wind?

[reefer]

Powderfreak rocks - CARLOAD WEDNESDAYS AT MAGIC! Who's in???????????

[billski]

this thread is making it damn hard to get any work done!