The Official 2/26 - 2/27 Storm Discussion Thread

JD · Feb 22, 2008, 6:06 PM

any speculation?

Zand · Feb 22, 2008, 6:14 PM

Signifigant model divergance... some have an Apps Runner, others have a storm off the M-A coast. GFS has been most consistent bringing a storm through NNE and a warm front followed by a sharp cold front for SNE. No confidence whatsoever on timing, amount, or type yet.

Also looking at a chance for another (and should be colder) storm for next Friday after a nice little arctic blast in the middle of next following storm 1.

billski · Feb 22, 2008, 6:36 PM

shh.... I already blocked Tuesday off on my office calendar..... (seriously...)
I'll let the pent up demand whack at today's flakes this weekend. then I'm going after the goods before this talk of ncp transforms into reality......

Kinda funny. Whenever it starts snowing out (like today) I start humming Christmas tunes..... "oh the weather outside is frightful...."

TheBEast · Feb 22, 2008, 7:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by billski

Kinda funny. Whenever it starts snowing out (like today) I start humming Christmas tunes..... "oh the weather outside is frightful...."

Dude that is too funny!!

GrilledSteezeSandwich · Feb 22, 2008, 7:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheBEast

Dude that is too funny!!

It looks like rain for Vermont..hero snow..

powderfreak · Feb 23, 2008, 9:52 AM

Right now, models are coming into agreement on the placement of some of the
upper level features...which leads to some confidence in the overall
synoptic output. Now, this storm is only at 3-4 days lead time but the
models are really just beginning to get a handle on all the ingredients for
this storm...as all of this upper level energy enters a more data-rich
environment across western N.America.

Surface Low looks to track from the Ohio Valley, ENE south of Albany to just
near Boston. Given the seasonal trend to go further northwest, I am
expecting this to track somewhere across BTV's county warning
area....meaning we'll have to deal with sleet, at least in the
southern/central areas.

Overall, precipitation amounts on the GFS, EURO, and Canadian all point
towards a moderate storm; QPF amounts are between .35-.75 so I'm leaning
towards a 4-8" snowfall on Tuesday during the day.

Will keep a few updates coming but this is our next winter storm.

-Scott

The BTV HWO from this morning...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ON TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA TRACKING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PRESENT
INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE. THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH
SLEET AT TIMES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. WHILE IT IS TOO SOON TO PREDICT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST LOW TRACK AT
THIS TIME RANGE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MODERATE SNOW STORM
THAT WOULD HAVE CONSIDERABLE TRAVEL IMPACTS ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED TO NWS FORECASTS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

KingM · Feb 23, 2008, 10:09 AM

Sounds good for the north country. We've got the base, but we need a good storm to get those woods and natural trails back up to snuff.

powderfreak · Feb 23, 2008, 10:22 AM

12z NAM and 12z GFS are on-board with a long duration snow event...taken at face value they would yield a 6-12" storm for the ski resorts from Killington on northward in Vermont...and across most of New Hampshire's 'major' resorts like Loon, Bretton Woods, Waterville, Wildcat, Cannon, etc. Same goes for the River and Loaf in Maine.

However, I am leery of a northwest trend which seems to be a seasonal disorder this winter thanks to La Nina. Certainly am not ruling out mixed precipitation far north until we get closer to the event, but looking good at this juncture.

Johnskiismore · Feb 23, 2008, 12:04 PM

Please, I will be Sugarloaf starting Monday!

X-Linked · Feb 23, 2008, 4:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheBEast

Dude that is too funny!!

Yeah, I actually have some video clips of a hike on the falls in snow. My friend and I just start singing that and walking in a winter wonderland. And I hate christmas music.

Feb 22, 2008, 6:06 PM	#1 (permalink)
JD Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Stowe Posts: 904	The Official 2/26 - 2/27 Storm Discussion Thread any speculation? __________________ Don\'t know until you go.

Feb 22, 2008, 6:14 PM	#2 (permalink)
Zand Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Leicester, MA Posts: 1,812	Signifigant model divergance... some have an Apps Runner, others have a storm off the M-A coast. GFS has been most consistent bringing a storm through NNE and a warm front followed by a sharp cold front for SNE. No confidence whatsoever on timing, amount, or type yet. Also looking at a chance for another (and should be colder) storm for next Friday after a nice little arctic blast in the middle of next following storm 1. __________________ 2003-2004: 21; 2004-2005: 27; 2005-2006: 31; 2006-2007: 31 2007-2008 Days- 38 Wachusett: 11/23; 11/29; 12/6; 12/9; 12/14; 12/20; 12/22; 1/4; 1/7; 1/15; 1/17; 1/18; 1/25; 1/27; 2/4; 2/8; 2/12; 2/14; 2/27; 2/29; 3/10; 3/26; 3/28; 3/29; 4/6 Mount Snow: 11/12; 11/24; 12/28; 1/21; 2/20; 4/19; 4/27 Berkshire East: 2/23 Okemo: 3/7 Stowe: 3/15; 3/16 Mad River Glen: 3/20 Sugarbush: 3/21

Feb 22, 2008, 6:36 PM	#3 (permalink)
billski Outing Club Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Lexington, Mass. Posts: 2,648	shh.... I already blocked Tuesday off on my office calendar..... (seriously...) I'll let the pent up demand whack at today's flakes this weekend. then I'm going after the goods before this talk of ncp transforms into reality...... Kinda funny. Whenever it starts snowing out (like today) I start humming Christmas tunes..... "oh the weather outside is frightful...." __________________ Millions and Millions of Lifts Served. Since 1976 ACE

Feb 23, 2008, 10:09 AM	#7 (permalink)
KingM Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Warren, VT (Sugarbush, MRG) Posts: 582	Sounds good for the north country. We've got the base, but we need a good storm to get those woods and natural trails back up to snuff. __________________ http://www.goldenlionriversideinn.com

Feb 23, 2008, 12:04 PM	#9 (permalink)
Johnskiismore North Peak Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: North Woodstock, NH Posts: 234	Please, I will be Sugarloaf starting Monday! __________________ Screw My Car, My Body Climbed Mount Washington! www.SKiNE.net

Feb 23, 2008, 9:52 AM	#6 (permalink)
powderfreak Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 208	Right now, models are coming into agreement on the placement of some of the upper level features...which leads to some confidence in the overall synoptic output. Now, this storm is only at 3-4 days lead time but the models are really just beginning to get a handle on all the ingredients for this storm...as all of this upper level energy enters a more data-rich environment across western N.America. Surface Low looks to track from the Ohio Valley, ENE south of Albany to just near Boston. Given the seasonal trend to go further northwest, I am expecting this to track somewhere across BTV's county warning area....meaning we'll have to deal with sleet, at least in the southern/central areas. Overall, precipitation amounts on the GFS, EURO, and Canadian all point towards a moderate storm; QPF amounts are between .35-.75 so I'm leaning towards a 4-8" snowfall on Tuesday during the day. Will keep a few updates coming but this is our next winter storm. -Scott The BTV HWO from this morning... .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ON TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA TRACKING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE. THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET AT TIMES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. WHILE IT IS TOO SOON TO PREDICT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST LOW TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MODERATE SNOW STORM THAT WOULD HAVE CONSIDERABLE TRAVEL IMPACTS ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED TO NWS FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

Feb 23, 2008, 10:22 AM	#8 (permalink)
powderfreak Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 208	12z NAM and 12z GFS are on-board with a long duration snow event...taken at face value they would yield a 6-12" storm for the ski resorts from Killington on northward in Vermont...and across most of New Hampshire's 'major' resorts like Loon, Bretton Woods, Waterville, Wildcat, Cannon, etc. Same goes for the River and Loaf in Maine. However, I am leery of a northwest trend which seems to be a seasonal disorder this winter thanks to La Nina. Certainly am not ruling out mixed precipitation far north until we get closer to the event, but looking good at this juncture.

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