[jaywbigred]

Originally Posted by SKIQUATTRO

....dont discount gas prices, that's swaying alot of folks as well .....

This was the quote you originally took issue with. To me, "swaying" can mean both overtly, conciously, when the skier fills up his/her gas tank, but also (perhaps subconciously), as he feels the sting of overall spikes in prices for certain goods/services, partly due to this same increase in gas prices.

Originally Posted by riverc0il

...A 10 cent jump is not 20% increase

It is if you go from.50 cents to .60 cents

Originally Posted by SKIQUATTRO

and is not going to change domestic prices on goods because it is well within a give range of variance. .

Again, I disagree with that statement. A long term permanent change of a penny will, ever so slightly, effect the overall cost of consumer goods.

Originally Posted by SKIQUATTRO

The jump from $2 to $3 a gallon surely has increased prices for consumer goods across the board which is irrelevant to the my post replying to a previous thread,

I don't know what "previous thread" you are referring too, but I think when you address the question as to what is impacting 1) less skier visits and 2) earler resort closings, it makes sense to look at something like the rise, between 2002 and 2006, for example, of inflation adjusted gas prices, from $1.50 to $2.50, a rise of 66% in inflation adjusted dollars.


(from inflationdata.com)

Let me state one more time, (I'm trying to emphasize this point) that in order to answer the questions at hand "why are skier visits down from prior years" and "why are mountains closing earlier than prior years", you have to look at comparisons on a year-to-year basis! Thus, the.10 cent rise you keep citing is irrelavant beceause it doesn't address the change in gas prices over a relevant span of time (multiple years).

Fictional AZer 2002:
20 ski trips (20-40 ski days).
300 miles round trip.
23 mpg avg in his car
13 gallon tank
1 tank of gas = 1 roundtrip
1 fill up = $1.50 x 13 = $19.50
gas cost for year = $390

Fictional AZer 2006:
To reach the same $390 in inflation adjusted dollars, the 2006 AZer
would only be able to take 12 ski trips.
12 ski trips (12-24 ski days?)
1 fill up = $2.50 x 13 = $32.50
gas cost for year = $390

In 2006, in order to spend the same amount of inflation adjusted dollars as he/she did in 2002, an AZer would have to forego 8 trips and 8-16 ski days. Thus, an AZer in 2006 would have to choose between spending more of his disposable income on gas, or skiing less. Certainly a good number of skiers would choose to ski less (if the opportunity cost for him is too high, if his disposable income is earmarked for other expenditures, or if he was already maxing out his disposable income to go skiing), and, as a result, skier visits go down, mountains make less money, mountains close earlier.

And, of course, gas prices from 2006-2008 have certainly increased, even after adjusting for inflation. So I am sure the difference is even greater today. Therefore, I am going to go ahead and agree with Skiquattro, that gas prices may sway some skiers, even without having to add-in my point re: other goods.

Originally Posted by SKIQUATTRO

which again, has been suggested was not the intent of the poster.

Did Skiquattro state, somewhere, his intent?

Originally Posted by SKIQUATTRO

In other words, the point I was arguing is irrelevant to the discussion but the point you are taking me to task on was never being discussed either.

Huh? I am not sure I follow that, but I think the point we are arguing is certainly relevant to the discussion.