Was so looking forward to my first adventure in Tucks, but don't think that this is the weather I should be doing it in ... and driving 7 hours each way to get to. 2 others have to make the decision along with me, but as much as I really want to go, my gut is that I shouldn't.
http://www.tuckerman.org/avalanche/
Over the past 2 days the weekend forecast has moved from partly sunny to a washout. The forecast has even changed from 9pm last night as the precipitation shield is way ahead of schedule as liquid reached the ground here on Mount Washington at 5am this morning. Drizzle is currently falling at Hermit Lake under overcast skies. Unfortunately it's all downhill from here as this moisture laden system enters the region and intensifies tomorrow.
QPF (predicted water amounts) have ramped up in the past 12 hours to 1.4" for the entire event with 0.8" falling tomorrow which currently holds a 90% probability of rain. Not only will this make it unpleasant to be relaxing on your favorite Ravine rock eating a soggy wonderbread sandwich, but will dramatically exacerbate our spring hazards. Crevasses and undermining will become more problematic; however, icefall will once again be the main hazardous threat in the Ravine over the next few days. Two icefall concerns exist today; the long standing large ice that developed through the winter; and the ice that quickly developed during the cold snap this week. This new ice will likely all peel off today and overnight with the ramp up of warm rain. The older larger ice, such as the upper Sluice ice, is sitting unsupported by any ice foundation below it. This is sitting up above Lunch Rocks threatening anything in its path. In addition to this threat fog over the next couple of days will dramatically increase the icefall hazard. Even if you can hear a massive block of ice cleave off you won't be able to see it coming, potentially breaking apart into multiple TVs, loungers, and refrigerator sized pieces in all directions. Fog can often develop rapidly and if this catches you when you're already up in a hazardous location it won't help your situation. Navigation around Mt. Washington will be difficult if fog overtakes the landscape and realize that all "summer trails" are still deeply buried and go through some very hazardous terrain. This scenario occurred yesterday as a school group of 60 planned on hiking up the Tuckerman Ravine trail to the summit. We caught them and explained that trails don't exist at this time of the year; it is full on mountaineering terrain. Play it conservative if on the mountain today and anticipate loosing all visibility from time to time.