Tuckerman weather question

[andyzee]

Originally Posted by kcyanks1

Thanks for the tips. My plan was to do Left Gully unless advised otherwise, with Hillman's possibly as a backup.

When you going?

[kcyanks1]

Originally Posted by andyzee

When you going?

Sunday, May 4

[kcyanks1]

Was so looking forward to my first adventure in Tucks, but don't think that this is the weather I should be doing it in ... and driving 7 hours each way to get to. 2 others have to make the decision along with me, but as much as I really want to go, my gut is that I shouldn't.


http://www.tuckerman.org/avalanche/

Over the past 2 days the weekend forecast has moved from partly sunny to a washout. The forecast has even changed from 9pm last night as the precipitation shield is way ahead of schedule as liquid reached the ground here on Mount Washington at 5am this morning. Drizzle is currently falling at Hermit Lake under overcast skies. Unfortunately it's all downhill from here as this moisture laden system enters the region and intensifies tomorrow. QPF (predicted water amounts) have ramped up in the past 12 hours to 1.4" for the entire event with 0.8" falling tomorrow which currently holds a 90% probability of rain. Not only will this make it unpleasant to be relaxing on your favorite Ravine rock eating a soggy wonderbread sandwich, but will dramatically exacerbate our spring hazards. Crevasses and undermining will become more problematic; however, icefall will once again be the main hazardous threat in the Ravine over the next few days. Two icefall concerns exist today; the long standing large ice that developed through the winter; and the ice that quickly developed during the cold snap this week. This new ice will likely all peel off today and overnight with the ramp up of warm rain. The older larger ice, such as the upper Sluice ice, is sitting unsupported by any ice foundation below it. This is sitting up above Lunch Rocks threatening anything in its path. In addition to this threat fog over the next couple of days will dramatically increase the icefall hazard. Even if you can hear a massive block of ice cleave off you won't be able to see it coming, potentially breaking apart into multiple TVs, loungers, and refrigerator sized pieces in all directions. Fog can often develop rapidly and if this catches you when you're already up in a hazardous location it won't help your situation. Navigation around Mt. Washington will be difficult if fog overtakes the landscape and realize that all "summer trails" are still deeply buried and go through some very hazardous terrain. This scenario occurred yesterday as a school group of 60 planned on hiking up the Tuckerman Ravine trail to the summit. We caught them and explained that trails don't exist at this time of the year; it is full on mountaineering terrain. Play it conservative if on the mountain today and anticipate loosing all visibility from time to time.

[andyzee]

Well, like 90% of the wannabees out there say, there's always next year

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

Originally Posted by kcyanks1

Was so looking forward to my first adventure in Tucks, but don't think that this is the weather I should be doing it in ... and driving 7 hours each way to get to. 2 others have to make the decision along with me, but as much as I really want to go, my gut is that I shouldn't.


http://www.tuckerman.org/avalanche/

Over the past 2 days the weekend forecast has moved from partly sunny to a washout. The forecast has even changed from 9pm last night as the precipitation shield is way ahead of schedule as liquid reached the ground here on Mount Washington at 5am this morning. Drizzle is currently falling at Hermit Lake under overcast skies. Unfortunately it's all downhill from here as this moisture laden system enters the region and intensifies tomorrow. QPF (predicted water amounts) have ramped up in the past 12 hours to 1.4" for the entire event with 0.8" falling tomorrow which currently holds a 90% probability of rain. Not only will this make it unpleasant to be relaxing on your favorite Ravine rock eating a soggy wonderbread sandwich, but will dramatically exacerbate our spring hazards. Crevasses and undermining will become more problematic; however, icefall will once again be the main hazardous threat in the Ravine over the next few days. Two icefall concerns exist today; the long standing large ice that developed through the winter; and the ice that quickly developed during the cold snap this week. This new ice will likely all peel off today and overnight with the ramp up of warm rain. The older larger ice, such as the upper Sluice ice, is sitting unsupported by any ice foundation below it. This is sitting up above Lunch Rocks threatening anything in its path. In addition to this threat fog over the next couple of days will dramatically increase the icefall hazard. Even if you can hear a massive block of ice cleave off you won't be able to see it coming, potentially breaking apart into multiple TVs, loungers, and refrigerator sized pieces in all directions. Fog can often develop rapidly and if this catches you when you're already up in a hazardous location it won't help your situation. Navigation around Mt. Washington will be difficult if fog overtakes the landscape and realize that all "summer trails" are still deeply buried and go through some very hazardous terrain. This scenario occurred yesterday as a school group of 60 planned on hiking up the Tuckerman Ravine trail to the summit. We caught them and explained that trails don't exist at this time of the year; it is full on mountaineering terrain. Play it conservative if on the mountain today and anticipate loosing all visibility from time to time.

That doesn't sound too bad..

[kcyanks1]

Originally Posted by andyzee

Well, like 90% of the wannabees out there say, there's always next year

Ha, I deserve that, I guess What would you do, seriously? If we drive up there later today as planned and it is bad weather, there's also the option of Sugarbush or even Sugarloaf ... it still will be raining, but perhaps in that weather I'd rather be at a resort than out in the backcountry, especially given that I am not familiar with Tucks. And then if we luck out with the weather, we can still do Tucks. But it's a ton of driving and effort for a maybe (coming from NYC).

[JimG.]

Originally Posted by kcyanks1

Was so looking forward to my first adventure in Tucks, but don't think that this is the weather I should be doing it in ... and driving 7 hours each way to get to. 2 others have to make the decision along with me, but as much as I really want to go, my gut is that I shouldn't.


http://www.tuckerman.org/avalanche/

Over the past 2 days the weekend forecast has moved from partly sunny to a washout. The forecast has even changed from 9pm last night as the precipitation shield is way ahead of schedule as liquid reached the ground here on Mount Washington at 5am this morning. Drizzle is currently falling at Hermit Lake under overcast skies. Unfortunately it's all downhill from here as this moisture laden system enters the region and intensifies tomorrow. QPF (predicted water amounts) have ramped up in the past 12 hours to 1.4" for the entire event with 0.8" falling tomorrow which currently holds a 90% probability of rain. Not only will this make it unpleasant to be relaxing on your favorite Ravine rock eating a soggy wonderbread sandwich, but will dramatically exacerbate our spring hazards. Crevasses and undermining will become more problematic; however, icefall will once again be the main hazardous threat in the Ravine over the next few days. Two icefall concerns exist today; the long standing large ice that developed through the winter; and the ice that quickly developed during the cold snap this week. This new ice will likely all peel off today and overnight with the ramp up of warm rain. The older larger ice, such as the upper Sluice ice, is sitting unsupported by any ice foundation below it. This is sitting up above Lunch Rocks threatening anything in its path. In addition to this threat fog over the next couple of days will dramatically increase the icefall hazard. Even if you can hear a massive block of ice cleave off you won't be able to see it coming, potentially breaking apart into multiple TVs, loungers, and refrigerator sized pieces in all directions. Fog can often develop rapidly and if this catches you when you're already up in a hazardous location it won't help your situation. Navigation around Mt. Washington will be difficult if fog overtakes the landscape and realize that all "summer trails" are still deeply buried and go through some very hazardous terrain. This scenario occurred yesterday as a school group of 60 planned on hiking up the Tuckerman Ravine trail to the summit. We caught them and explained that trails don't exist at this time of the year; it is full on mountaineering terrain. Play it conservative if on the mountain today and anticipate loosing all visibility from time to time.

I believe you made a good call.

There is always next weekend.

[kcyanks1]

Originally Posted by JimG.

I believe you made a good call.

There is always next weekend.

Well, call isn't made just yet...I didn't want to call anyone else yet in case they were asleep. I emailed and said to call me, but I'll call soon. Next weekend is no good because I have family plans for mother's day. The following weekend should be OK for me, but a friend I was supposed to go with will be away and my brother who is coming has an extremely unpredictable work schedule (not that mine is very predictable, but his is worse in that respect). So I can definitely shoot for 2 weekends from now, but this one was perfect as far as people being able to go, and despite early nervousness about possible showers, until this morning, it looked like I'd luck out with the weather...not beautiful, but dry.

[JimG.]

Originally Posted by kcyanks1

Well, call isn't made just yet...I didn't want to call anyone else yet in case they were asleep. I emailed and said to call me, but I'll call soon. Next weekend is no good because I have family plans for mother's day. The following weekend should be OK for me, but a friend I was supposed to go with will be away and my brother who is coming has an extremely unpredictable work schedule (not that mine is very predictable, but his is worse in that respect). So I can definitely shoot for 2 weekends from now, but this one was perfect as far as people being able to go, and despite early nervousness about possible showers, until this morning, it looked like I'd luck out with the weather...not beautiful, but dry.

Good weather conditions make the first trip there much more enjoyable.

My first trip in 20 years or so was in 2002 and we stayed 2 nights in the lean-to's.

The day we hiked in we did a Hillman's that afternoon in 60 degree weather.

By the time we finished dinner there was 4" of new snow on the ground. We got about 10" overnight total.

The next day on Hillman's was a blowing snow fest. Sunny and cold.

The big payoff was the last day, windless and sunny with superb wind packed powder. Chute was especially nice, as was Center Gully.

I won't make it up there this season...the first time in at least 5 years. Just too busy with the new job, but feeling settled in now. So it's next season for me.

Enjoy.

[riverc0il]

I bagged out on going today. Was looking at either Hillman's or GoS, icefall threat is much less on Hillman's and not really an issue at all in GoS along with no bumps over there either. Weather was not looking good as of last night and when I woke up the ground was wet from rain last night. Sunday is going to be a wash as well so probably a good idea to wait for a better week. Skiing was certainly doable today but I don't like getting soggy and prefer to save the slog for nicer days.