Its going to be a long January

[ALLSKIING]

January 13th, 2006

I rambled in the last column for too long about the doom and gloom this weather pattern will bring us for the next two weeks. It serves no purpose to rehash those lovely details (sarcasm) but not much in the bigger picture has changed. This honestly is the worst winter weather pattern I have seen since December of 2001 and it plans to be with us through at least January 24 th. We do have some details to sort out concerning the weather for MLK weekend and for next week as well. Most importantly though we will discuss the possibilities of a grand exit from this nauseating regime and what the weather menu might look like when we get to that point.

MLK weekend and the rain and snow situation
Dry weather and sunshine will accompany the near record breaking warmth on Friday as temperatures at the base of the mountain approach the 50-degree mark in the afternoon. The potential “wash-out” that I had braced everyone for a few days ago still looms large and I am sure it is a major highlight or should I say lowlight of every weekend forecast at this point. The rain will begin early Saturday morning and continue on and off through most of Saturday and will on occasion become heavy. The passage of the cold front may even bring enough dynamics to produce a thunderstorm Saturday evening. Dewpoints are expected to climb into the low 40’s while it rains and it is not expected to become extremely windy until Sunday once temperatures are below freezing. This essentially means that the rain event could be more catastrophic in terms of existing snow loss but there will be a loss nonetheless. The storm will strengthen quite significantly along the northeast coast Saturday night and precipitation will change to snow even in some of the bigger cities such as New York and Washington. I do expect an accumulation of snow during the day Sunday but keep in mind that the snowfall will be accompanied by ferocious winds. I guess what I am trying to get at is that although upwards 6 inches of snow may fall Sunday, it may not be a true powder day if the wind is as strong as advertised and blows everything around or off the trails. The snow shower activity will continue through Sunday night and then taper to flurries Monday. The winds will also subside somewhat by MLK day.

Next Week
The colder weather which will arrive by Sunday morning will only qualify as “normal” and span until Tuesday morning before clouds arrive from the next system. It doesn’t appear as if this storm qualify as the oasis in the desert, if I can use that metaphor. It will be cold initially on Tuesday, perhaps enough to bring a period of snow or a period of freezing rain. Ultimately by Wednesday temperatures will again be warm enough for plain rain or in this case showers since it does not appear as if precipitation in this event will be significant. Dry but unseasonably mild temperatures are then expected to prevail late in the week. It’s a week out but I would say upper 30’s for highs and 20’s for lows both Thursday and Friday. Next weekend looks very hazy from such a distance but a preliminary guess is for a continuation of mild temperatures and an impact from another weather system which will include rain or wet snow or both.

When will help arrive
Now to the important part of the discussion which attempts to tackle the question of when the heck can we rid ourselves of this situation and at least get sense of normalcy or better than normalcy as far as skiing is concerned. The model ensemble guidance does offer hints of a pattern shift late in the month which is driven by retrogression (westward movement) of some key long wave features. That being said, the glaring theme based on model guidance is for a unabated continuation of this pattern through at least January 24 th with no hope of change until the final week of January which is a long way off. There are a lot of things that computer guidance fails to see however, in very much the same way that it failed to see things clearly for the recent holiday week and I am counting on this undeniable fact to give us some assistance by late this month. I think the most likely scenario is that more arctic cold to become involved in the pattern by January 25th even if the pattern fundamentals shift only slightly. The arctic air has been focused on other continents this month or bottled up near the pole but the cold will seep gradually south into southern Canada over time and eventually into parts of the northern United States. This should even the playing field a bit even if it doesn’t exactly turn the game around. I also recall the last big La Nina winter of 1999-2000 where the pattern looked incredibly bleak through mid January and then suddenly and almost unexpectedly shifted allowing Vermont to jackpot on consecutive snow events late in the month so don’t lose hope. In summary though, I would expect an “improvement” rather than a “turnaround” late in the month but until then the news will be mostly bad.

Summary in a Sentence
Mild and rainy weather pattern prevails until late in the month and will unleash itself in a big way this Saturday and quite likely a few more times over the course of the next two weeks.

[loafer89]

This winter reminds me alot of the winter of 2001-2002 when Europe had a really cold and snowy winter and we kept waiting for the cold to migrate to North America which it never really did do.

Thank goodness for snowmaking, at least it makes skiing possible in warm winters. I am going to try to get in some night skiing at Camelback if the weather cooperates tonight.

NOAA forecast calling for 1-2" of RAIN in Vermont through saturday night