Ernesto

[thebigo]

I have been planning on hiking the long trail next week for months now. Was planning on on route 4 to rte 89 but I keep hearing about Ernesto. Any of you weather types out there have an idea of whether early next week is going to be a washout? All the so-called professionals seem to be stearing clear of a definite forecast, any hunches out there is az land?

I keep hearing about the storm going west of new england, anybody think it would make sense to hike saddleback, sugarloaf, bigelow area in maine rather than vt?

I have hiked in the rain many times, but a long distance hike in a monsoon doesnt sound like much fun. Worse case scenario I cancel the trip, go to work instead and get a ton of days in at kmart before new years.

[wintersyndrome]

for longer range forcasts I prefer the model maps found at weatherunderground.com (www.wunderground.com)

this link0

is to the model maps page i referenced. It shows the predicted water vapor energy and pressure systems over the continent.
My interpretation:
what it shows runs through sunday afternoon at this point. It highlights the energy from ernesto getting spread out as it A.) travels over land, and B.) throughout this weekend runs into a high pressure ridge that will sit over quebec.
Forcasting for next week will be tough at this point because the key factors into your weather outlook is the dominance of that high pressure over quebec to quell and eventually push out the center of the low formally known as ernesto. Granted this may be tough as Ernesto was a pretty strong low and may force out the canadian high to the maritimes. at this point anything may happen, right now, there are strong easterly winds coming in off the atlantic that can also fuel the ernesto low with moisture (fragment of the stationary front that brought us this crappy weather pattern for the last few days)
Depending on the placement of the upper level ridge in Canada to keep the storm south of your hike and the coastal track of the ernesto low will placate your weather for next week. play it safe and bring rain gear, maybe put off plans until you know for sure, check the link again on friday when forcast range will highlight your vacation week.

no im not a meteorologist, I just study it for fun, though I did stay at a holiday inn express last night

[MichaelJ]

What I find remarkable is that the 5 day forecast probability shows it going so far west, against the usual prevailing weather pattern. This makes it look like it could actually loop north over New England next week.

Or it could hit Canada and follow the next frontal system right to us.

However, being over land it's not going to pick up moisture and grow; it will only weaken.

I think the only thing to do is keep watching the track and the forecasts as late as you can manage before making a go-no go decision.

[MichaelJ]

Oh, the other thing to keep in mind ... even if the wet detritus of Ernesto whacks us, it's probably Sunday into Monday, maybe a bit of Tuesday, and then it's past.

Probably.

[thetrailboss]

Argh. Another hiking weekend threatened by rain...third in a row.

[MichaelJ]

Better now than in January!!!