The end is near?

ctenidae · Sep 26, 2011

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...chase-shares-saying-stock-is-undervalued.html

Is everything so badly in flux that Warren Buffet can't find anything besides his own stock that's attractively priced compared to risk?

First time in 40 years they've done a share buyback. A tiny bit worrisome, really.

Nick · Sep 26, 2011

No one is perfect, even Warren Buffet & Berkshire Hathaway

ctenidae · Sep 26, 2011

Nick said:
No one is perfect, even Warren Buffet & Berkshire Hathaway

Very true, but when someone is more often right than wrong, it makes sense to watch them.

wa-loaf · Sep 26, 2011

People will be predicting the end all the way to the end.

ctenidae · Sep 26, 2011

wa-loaf said:
People will be predicting the end all the way to the end.

and beyond, I'm sure.

To me, the move really just highlights the uncertainty in the markets. The 2 things that are for sure is A) Something needs to happen (whther it's Euro debt, US debt, shortage of dollars inAsia, a giant asteroid, or a zombie invasion) and 2) Something will happen. The people who need to enact whatever is done know what they think needs to happen, but there's no political leadership available to say "go." In the end, things will have to get so bad the markets enforce a solution, and move on.

The uncertainty is the major problem, I think. With no better guidance or direction, you sit on your hands. Which generates a whole series of problems, itself.

Nick · Sep 26, 2011

ctenidae said:
Very true, but when someone is more often right than wrong, it makes sense to watch them.

Definitely not denying that. I just wonder sometimes if Buffett has an aura around him like he can do no wrong. His words literally move indexes.

What I really like about Buffett is his long-term views. I don't follow investing all that closely but in general I think we are way to short-term when we invest, although I can appreciate when people freak out when their 401k's lose a quarter of their value in a matter of months. Blah!

riverc0il · Sep 27, 2011

Good observations about sitting on your hands, cten. Many economists are arguing that everything is just being made worst by all the interventions. Instead of one really harsh correction that effected a lot of people briefly we involved in an extended suffering with no correction in sight. Being in my early 30s, I don't really fear for my investments at all. I haven't changed my strategy one bit. But I could see someone being older but not yet at retirement age being much more concerned with how to play things. And obviously, the bigger picture is not doing very well as we continue to stumble along with uncertainty from the top to the bottom. Definitely no leadership on this issue because fixing the problems requires pain which is political suicide everywhere in the world.

Glenn · Sep 27, 2011

I'm in the same boat. I'm a ways off from retirement, so I'm just letting the 401k ride. I haven't changed my investment mix (mostly equities) and I keep contributing. Guess we'll see if the ol dollar cost averaging works out after all.

mondeo · Sep 27, 2011

ctenidae said:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...chase-shares-saying-stock-is-undervalued.html

Is everything so badly in flux that Warren Buffet can't find anything besides his own stock that's attractively priced compared to risk?

First time in 40 years they've done a share buyback. A tiny bit worrisome, really.

All I know is that if they start issuing dividends, I'm converting all liquid assets to non-fiat based assets. Like maybe a Ford.

ctenidae · Sep 27, 2011

mondeo said:
All I know is that if they start issuing dividends, I'm converting all liquid assets to non-fiat based assets. Like maybe a Ford.

Good plan.

deadheadskier · Sep 27, 2011

Maybe ole Warren is afraid of the Occupy Wall Street protest. :lol:

wa-loaf · Sep 28, 2011

legalskier · Sep 28, 2011

ctenidae said:
A tiny bit worrisome, really.

In a related cheery note:

"Get prepared....This is not a time for wishful thinking that the government is going to sort things out. The governments don't rule the world- Goldman Sachs rules the world. GS doesn't care about this rescue package, neither does the big funds....What [people] need to do is learn to make money from a downward market."

ctenidae said:
The people who need to enact whatever is done know what they think needs to happen, but there's no political leadership available to say "go." In the end, things will have to get so bad the markets enforce a solution, and move on.

He seems to have a similar outlook.

ctenidae · Sep 28, 2011

Alessio is either a nutjob or a prophet. Maybe both.

legalskier · Sep 28, 2011

ctenidae said:
Alessio is either a nutjob or a prophet. Maybe both.

Or perhaps a Yes Man:
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/cutline/bbc-victim-hoax-no-yes-men-154724196.html

It doesn't matter too much though, not when someone like David Brooks agrees with you too (and Rastani, fwiw):
The prognosis for the next few years is bad with a chance of worse. And the economic conditions are not even the scary part. The scary part is the political class’s inability to think about the economy in a realistic way....Yet the ideologues who dominate the political conversation are unable to think in holistic, emergent ways. They pick out the one factor that best conforms to their preformed prejudices and, like blind men grabbing a piece of the elephant, they persuade themselves they understand the whole thing.***
Link: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/27/opinion/brooks-the-lost-decade.html?src=me&ref=general

And he isn't talking about Europe.

ctenidae · Sep 29, 2011

legalskier said:
. They pick out the one factor that best conforms to their preformed prejudices and, like blind men grabbing a piece of the elephant, they persuade themselves they understand the whole thing.***[/I]
Link: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/27/opinion/brooks-the-lost-decade.html?src=me&ref=general

And he isn't talking about Europe.

It's a great formula:
((Ignorant leadership + Ignorant Populace)/complex issue)^volatile markets= Win!

No, wait, !=Win...

ctenidae · Sep 29, 2011

Germans have voted to not invade Greece yet, so that's a step in the right direction. At least, it shows that Merkel has some support.

The end is near?

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