Big Burke announcement

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So is the meadow pumphouse between the river pumphouse and the pond or the booster pump house and the Summit? What the heck is a driveline anyway? Do they mean supply line? Who put this together anyway, a kindergarten class? This is a presentation that is being made to the public?

Looks like someone opened powerpoint or visio for the first time.......maybe they should have centered their items along "Drive Line" but why do that for a presentation to your main sources of revenue/customers......

I look forward to a rundown on the meeting

Meeting just ended. I'll do a writeup tonight if my memory allows.


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VTKilarney said:

Meeting just ended. I'll do a writeup tonight if my memory allows.


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That's a long ass meeting.....in a couple words was it productive? More BS? or a little of both? Do you feel better about the next 24 months in Burke?

River19 said:

That's a long ass meeting.....in a couple words was it productive? More BS? or a little of both? Do you feel better about the next 24 months in Burke?

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There was definitely some of both. It's really hard to sum up the meeting in one thought. But until I write something longer, I am comfortable saying that I think it was very good that they held the meeting in a lot of ways.


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Starting a write up now.


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Here we go with a write up of the meeting. A couple of caveats, though. First, I went in with a piece of paper intending to take notes. I didn't wind up using it so this is based on memory. I was also in the back of the room, so there were a few times when I couldn't hear too well what a passholder was saying. It is quite possible that my memory is not 100% accurate. Second, I am going to insert my opinion here. Opinion is not fact. If anything appears to be remotely like opinion you should assume that it is. I will try to make any editorial comments in brackets as I go along. Third, this is going to be somewhat disjointed. This is because the meeting itself was disjointed at times and because I am working from memory. Generally, the order things are presented will be the order they happened - but this may not always be the case.

So here we go:

- Attendance was quite good. The room was full. Most people seemed to be condo or second-home owners.
- The overall tone of the meeting was quite respectful. There was one unnecessarily confrontational person, and a woman who spoke WAY too much and babbled when she spoke (I'm looking at you Mrs. Physician). But they were the outliers. This is not to say that people weren't direct, or that they didn't challenge management. They did. But when they did nearly everyone did so in a very respectful manner.
- Five Burke reps sat at the front of the room. 1) Ary Jr.; 2) Jason Legebvre (mountain ops); Bill Stenger; Bill Kelly (generally for hotel matters); and the CFO (I think his name is George Gulisano if Linkedin is to be believed).

Here are bullet points for what was said by the Burke people:

The meeting started with a moment of silence for the woman who lost her life at the resort on Friday as well as for someone else whose name I did not catch. [This was a nice touch and it seemed sincere.]

Ary read from notes and said: (a) There are the same number of season passholders this year as last year; (b) Skier visits are up 18% this year; (c) The hotel will increase the overall quality of Burke's staff; (d) The website is being revamped in February.
- The final and biggest point Ary made is that there is a 2-3 year plan to upgrade the snowmaking system. The plan is with SMI who did the snowmaking for the Sochi Olympics.

Jason Lefebvre spoke next.
- He described the current snowmaking system.
- He said that they haven't been able to pump from the Passumpsic River for the past two weeks because of low flow levels.
- The snowmaking pond is empty.
- Snowmaking is impacted by electric power limitations during peak use times, usually in the mornings and evenings. This was especially true during the Christmas break.
- They were a couple of days late opening up Lower Warren's Way. It was supposed to be opened by the first Tuesday of December but was not open until the following Friday.

Next was Stenger. His main points were:
- The key to snowmaking is the ability to recover from weather adversity.
- The lack of December terrain was because Burke lacked compressed air capacity.
- The snowmaking upgrade project with SMI is still in the design phase.
- The hotel is opening on 12/11/15.
- Burke has between 1,400 and 1,500 season pass holders. [Note: The CFO later claimed that the correct number is 2,400.] This compares to Jay Peak's 4,400.
- Snowmaking has suffered this year because cold weather has reduced the flow of Passumpsic River. Jay has had the exact same challenge because they draw from a stream.
- Jay can pump 2,000 gallons of water per minute. Burke can pump about the same amount.
- The focus is going to be on increasing mid-week skier visits.
- No funds are being diverted form the mountain to build the hotel.
- Burke will commit to opening on Thanksgiving weekend next year and will shoot for an Easter Weekend closing.
- Enhancements to snowmaking will begin this summer. Stenger was asked point blank what those enhancements will be. He said that he could not say right now, but that this will be disclosed to passholders prior to the early bird deadline.

Next up was Bill Kelly. He said the following:
- Bear Den will be open next year. (Later in the meeting Ary said that it will be open for 2-3 more years.)
- Bear Den will be replicated in the next building that goes up.
- The hotel General Manager has already been hired.
- There will be a carpet lift to get skiers from the hotel up to the MBX lift.
- When the aquatic center and tennis center are built, they are considering the construction of a parking deck like they have at Jay Peak.

These next bullet points were said by one or more of the five Burke reps:
- There is a new marketing manager, "Jessica".
- Tower 13 on the MBX is the most prone to wind.
- Running the lifts at night to avoid icing doesn't always work. [It sounded like they are not going to even try.]
- They are going to get crews in earlier when there is icing.
- They couldn't recruit enough ski instructors this year which has resulted in blackout periods.
- They plan to move the Willoughby chair to the East Bowl area.
- To run more snow guns, Burke is going to have to negotiate with LED for more electrical power. The hotel will increase their electricity needs as well.
- The CFO said that Burke gets about half the natural snow that Jay Peak gets.
- The tennis and aquatic centers will be built in the High Meadows area. Ary said something about being where the "pole barn" is.
- There are big plans for the mountain bike operation. New features, changing features, etc.
- With the tennis and aquatic centers, the original goal was to make Burke a destination for academic institutions for training. (e.g., high school and college sports retreats.) They have revamped this. They are now trying to package Burke as an "Adventure Academic destination."
- An audience member asked why they were building out tennis in light of tennis being a dying sport in the United States. Ary responded quickly and sharply that tennis is a growing sport.
- Jay Peak has 80 weddings a year and 40 hockey tournaments that last from 2-4 days each.
- Come spring there will be about 400 construction workers at the hotel.

So those were the facts that I could remember, as best as I could remember. Here is my opinion regarding several things:

- Stenger is a VERY talented man. I am always impressed to see him at work. For as much as I am skeptical of the EB-5 situation, there can be no denying that he is one of the most talented people that I have ever come across. He knows his industry, and he knows how to engage people. He makes you want to follow him.

- Bill Kelly was really good as well. He is the kind of guy who likes to take charge, and he did it very effectively. He worked the room really well.

- Jason Lefebvre did an excellent job. He was clearly out of his element, which is not a knock on him. He's supposed to be dealing with operations, not meeting with frustrated passholders. And in that challenging environment he did as well as anyone could have expected.

- Ary and the CFO were the least compelling. While Ary clearly needed Stenger's talents at the meeting, Stenger's presence made Ary's shortcomings stand out. As far as the CFO is concerned, the accountant isn't supposed to be the most dynamic guy in the room - so I don't find any fault in the fact that he wasn't.

- The General Manager sat in the corner and looked almost scared. I'm not sure what his role is, but it sure isn't a public one.

- The strategy to explain away the snowmaking problems was disjointed. On the one hand, they tried real hard to put the blame on the cold weather. They kept insisting that the problem was that they couldn't draw enough water from the river. But this has only been the case for the last two weeks! The past two weeks haven't been the problem. They did indicate that they are going to increase compressor capacity for next year - although it was only mentioned once in passing. That was the ONLY detail that was ever slipped. And even if they have an improved system, what good is it if they can't get the electricity they need from Lyndonville Electric? If there is indeed a plan, it is clearly a work in progress and there was definitely some obfuscation as to the extent of the issue and the actual progress they have made.

- Ary completely blew it at the end of the meeting when he assertively said that tennis is a growing sport. At best it shows that he is completely ignorant of the market, and at worst it was a patronizing untruth. Either way, I personally have no faith in anything else he said at the meeting because of this comment. The only explanation I can think of is that it is a growing market academically. If that's the case, then I apologize to Ary. But I'm skeptical that it is the case, or that it is what he meant. The more important point is that I can't be the only one who picked up on the comment and walked away with the same feeling.

- My distrust of Ary was cemented by another line he gave. When assuring the crowd that the snowmaking will be improved next year, he stated that what has changed is that the hotel will bring in money that the resort will be able to use for snowmaking improvements and therefore they will be able to make improvements for next ski season. [I paraphrased what he said, but the overall point is accurate to the best of my memory.] This is complete bullshit if the hotel is not opening until December 11th!

My final opinion was this: These guys are trying damn hard to make this work but Ary is no Stenger. I just don't know if Ary has the capability to execute his vision. I, frankly, now KNOW that I don't trust him based on the couple of comments that I just referred to. But... my only real concern is that they get their snowmaking sorted out. I am convinced that this will happen so long as they have the financial ability to make it happen. My gut tells me that next year won't bring a major snowmaking improvement. Reading between the lines, I think that their solution for next year is to blow early and often and to increase compressor capacity. Will this help? Yes. Will it be enough? Doubtful. That's why it's a multi-year project. I'm just recognizing that a multi-year project can't deliver all of the goods in the first year.

One big wildcard is that they are depending on hotel related revenues to pay for the snowmaking upgrades. Which is the cart and which is the horse? And snow aside, is the hotel going to be raking in money if there is not yet a tennis and aquatic center?

One other point that I just remembered. Ary said that he will not run the Willoughby chair because of liability reasons, even though it is inspected. He said that the concern is that liability is greatly enhanced if something bad happens with a lift that is only occasionally used. So forget Willoughby being available as a back up for the MBX.

Thanks for taking the time to write that up.

So a hotel that is going to open 12/11/15 is supposed to help fund snowmaking improvements that need to be in place prior to that? Am I missing something here? But also, without snow, who is in the hotel?

I am also skeptical that outside of maybe some academic competitions, tennis is pretty much a non-draw......maybe something nice to do when you run out of everything else to do, but who travels to play tennis?

Stenger has always been the visionary and true marketer and leader behind all this, which makes me really scratch my head as to why he is still backing Ary for that position. Short of it being a blatant favor to Q Sr. it makes so little sense it is laughable. He can barely run the Tamarack let alone a complicated hotel/resort.

What were some of the major concerns from the condo/passholders?

I'm concerned with his whole "us vs. them" mentality that seems to be aimed at both BMA and KT which again, makes so little sense as to be laughable.

https://www.google.com/maps/place/I...ata=!3m1!1e3!4m2!3m1!1s0x0:0x4463c112fff71976


Stowe has since redone their courts, but it wasn't too long ago they looked like this google capture above. I'm guessing that Google Maps capture is from two years ago.

I do believe there were a number of summers Stowe didn't offer tennis at all as people simply weren't interested. I know I drove by a few summers ago and there were no nets up.

VTKilarney summarized the meeting quite well.
The moment of silence was also for Ronnie Berlack. The former BMA skier turned US ski team member that was killed in an avalanche a couple months ago.

The physicain lady rambled a lot and kept coming back to the same topic as though she forgot the answer they had just given her. And she seemed willing to put wind turbines all over the mountain to generate electricity even though the CFO said the one that is there is barely worth it (estimated 50 years before it breaks even).

The snowmaking problems are:
1. Air compressor capacity (plan to have extra portable capacity during the early season next year).
2. Water pumping capacity to the top of the mountain. They actually can't pump enough water fast enough when ideal atmospheric conditions are present.
3. Pond capacity. They weren't done making snow this year (still want more snow on Ledges and a few other places) but low water levels in the East Branch are preventing that. The cold that hit after the thaw, before we got a blanket of new snow, froze up all of the small streams that feed the river so water levels may not come back up unless there is a significant thaw (Ford Hubbard stepped forward to help explain that one 8)).
The snow making pond is empty to the utter disbelief of one dude in the front row who was the only person in the crowd who was not very civil in his discourse.

No one spoke about the KTA relationship.

Stenger gave a VERY passionate speech about BMA and its importance to not only Burke, but the region as a whole. He also added that the Tennis/swimming facility is supposed to expand on that model of training world class athletes.

Stenger is a very good speaker and was very adept at smoothing ruffled feathers.

Ary not so much. The guy has passion but he has some problems channeling it effectively.

deadheadskier said:

https://www.google.com/maps/place/I...ata=!3m1!1e3!4m2!3m1!1s0x0:0x4463c112fff71976


Stowe has since redone their courts, but it wasn't too long ago they looked like this google capture above. I'm guessing that Google Maps capture is from two years ago.

I do believe there were a number of summers Stowe didn't offer tennis at all as people simply weren't interested. I know I drove by a few summers ago and there were no nets up.

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The key here is that those are outdoor courts.

It sounds like there will be some outdoor courts at Burke, however I think the focus is going to be indoor courts.
I know growing up in VT, I took daily tennis lessons at Powers Park in Lyndonville. There were typically 2-3 days per week that the courts were too wet to play on. It is very difficult to attract people to tennis camps if you can't offer a consistent product. A big plus is that indoor courts can be used year round for training top end players looking for elite camps.
A four court facility would be about 215x125'. A five court facility would be somewhere around 300' long. It sounds like they are planning on using the area just past the main entrance to the base lodge. Between the Mountain Rd, High Meadows Rd, and the maintenance shed/gravel pit.

Keep an eye out for the Act 250 plans coming out in a month or two.

My take is, there was a lot of BS put forth during tonight's meeting. Bill Stenger is a passionate guy and he does good work at Jay, but he'll say anything for people to believe him, just ask the people of Newport. The Kelly guy seems even worse. The reason Stanger allows Q to run the resort is because Stenger has no say in who runs the resort, he is there for PR only.

The excuses for snowmaking are just excuses. It sounds as if the whole management team did not know the capacities or the limits of the existing system and just found out this winter? They did not know any of these issues going in??? - last year was just as bad as this, and I predict there will be little change next year. Lyndonville electric has plenty of electricity, unfortunately Q has to be willing to pay for it, that's the problem, there's no electrical shortage, Q is just not willing to pay. It would be nice if the local newspaper went to Lyndonville electric and asked them why they do not have enough electricity to supply Burke, I am sure you would get the truth.

Counting on indoor tennis or Olympic diving and swimming is simply insane. Do some quick math, even if these sports were growing which they are not, how many people can use an indoor tennis court at one time? Assuming you have 4 courts and even if you have doubles at each court, that is 16 people for a building over 20,000 square feet, just the cost to heat it are astronomical - the numbers do not work. These guys should be made to show a business plan before they are allowed to build these buildings. How much are they going to charge for court fees to make this work financially? that's why you do not see indoor courts in cold climates, they do not work. Swimming is even worse, how many people can use a diving platform or the lanes in an Olympic pool? The cost to maintain and heat the water and maintain the building temperatures is even more so than the tennis facility.

Then to assume you can have a world-class tennis and swimming academy overnight because BMA is at the same site is even more ludicrous. BMA has a history and track record with the numerous Olympians it has produced, it struggled for most of its history but has become successful after nearly 40 years. There's no tennis and swimming academy at Burke now, but we expect since Q says so, people going to instantly start to go there? This does not make any sense at all.

But don't listen to facts and common sense, listen to the BS that was dished out at tonights meeting, Burke will be so much better for it��

from_the_NEK said:

The key here is that those are outdoor courts.

It sounds like there will be some outdoor courts at Burke, however I think the focus is going to be indoor courts.
I know growing up in VT, I took daily tennis lessons at Powers Park in Lyndonville. There were typically 2-3 days per week that the courts were too wet to play on. It is very difficult to attract people to tennis camps if you can't offer a consistent product. A big plus is that indoor courts can be used year round for training top end players looking for elite camps.
A four court facility would be about 215x125'. A five court facility would be somewhere around 300' long. It sounds like they are planning on using the area just past the main entrance to the base lodge. Between the Mountain Rd, High Meadows Rd, and the maintenance shed/gravel pit.

Keep an eye out for the Act 250 plans coming out in a month or two.

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It's the greater point. Stowe, the biggest money destination resort in the state let their outdoor courts go to crap while a $250M+ hotel and base village went up because it was a low priority amenity for their guests. I doubt it was a weather issue either. And trust me, I get that there are many days you can't play because of wet weather here in New England. Happens to me all the time. But, on a bright sunny day that's not too hot where I play in Durham, NH (home of UNH) maybe 8 of the 16 available courts will be in use......maybe. The 12 of those 16 courts that are located on UNH campus are in complete disrepair. I don't even think they have a club team anymore at the school. The 4 town maintained courts and almost all the outdoor courts in this area are in need of serious investment and upkeep. Most indoor facilities are being converted into other forms of athletic use.

So, I just don't get why Ary thinks that tennis is a worthy and workable investment at Burke. I completely get why VTK found Ary's comment that tennis is a "growing sport" to be total bullshit. I live adjacent to a huge tourist destination myself. There are more people on a busy summer Saturday at Hampton Beach, NH than Burke sees in skier visits during an entire season. 100+K people will visit the area on a busy day. Land is at a premium here. No tennis resorts exist. If it's not happening here and not a single major New England ski resort has invested heavily in indoor tennis facilities since pretty much the Reagan administration, you have to think it might not be a very good idea.

VTKilarney said:

One other point that I just remembered. Ary said that he will not run the Willoughby chair because of liability reasons, even though it is inspected. He said that the concern is that liability is greatly enhanced if something bad happens with a lift that is only occasionally used. So forget Willoughby being available as a back up for the MBX.

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Wow. That makes no sense at all, especially if they are going to move it to the East Bowl (this is at least the third regime who has said that).

Looks like someone admitted the truth here:

The lack of December terrain was because Burke lacked compressed air capacity.

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I think a few folks here were saying that.

And FWIW LED does NOT have a lot of spare electric capacity right now. Especially now that VTY is gone.

Anything said about the (lack of) marketing? Stupid name change? Burning bridges with nearly everyone in town including KT?

And FWIW LED does NOT have a lot of spare electric capacity right now. Especially now that VTY is gone.


I disagree with this, the electric utility has not seen any load growth in many years. And actually the number of factories and manufacturers have decreased in Lyndonville over the past several years. They also installed a new substation within the last three or four years that improved their capacity and reliability. Granted there may be times when they need to control their peak load, especially during the Christmas holidays, but this is no excuse to not install another compressor if it needs to be shut down on a very limited number of days to control peak loads over the course of the winter. Correlating closing of Vermont Yankee to Lyndonville's available electric supply makes no sense at all, Vermont Yankee was not in business to supply Lyndonville electric with power , there's plenty of power on the market these days, it just needs to be purchased.

burski said:

My take is, there was a lot of BS put forth during tonight's meeting. Bill Stenger is a passionate guy and he does good work at Jay, but he'll say anything for people to believe him, just ask the people of Newport. The Kelly guy seems even worse. The reason Stanger allows Q to run the resort is because Stenger has no say in who runs the resort, he is there for PR only.

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Here is what matters to me: Ary guaranteed the audience that multiple top to bottom routes would be open by Christmas. Stenger and Ary guaranteed the audience that they will be told exactly what improvements will be made to snowmaking by the time that the early bird season pass rate closes. If Ary doesn't follow through with these two things he's past the point of no return. Nobody really cares whether or not a tennis center happens. But they do care about whether or not there is snow on the hill.

On a more generic level, the second major outcome of the meeting for me was the confirmation that Ary is no Bill Stenger. Whatever you may think of the whole EB-5 issue, it is clear that Stenger has a PhD in ski area management and public relations whereas Ary just completed the moving up ceremony from kindergarten to first grade.

This is not to say that the discussion of the EB-5 buildout was irrelevant. But I am focused now on next year, not the next few years. Had the next few years been my primary concern, the meeting would not have given me much confidence. They definitely didn't convince anyone that aquatics and tennis will make Burke a viable operation. I'm still cringing at Ary's insistence that tennis is a growth industry in the USA.

burski said:

And FWIW LED does NOT have a lot of spare electric capacity right now. Especially now that VTY is gone.


I disagree with this, the electric utility has not seen any load growth in many years. And actually the number of factories and manufacturers have decreased in Lyndonville over the past several years. They also installed a new substation within the last three or four years that improved their capacity and reliability. Granted there may be times when they need to control their peak load, especially during the Christmas holidays, but this is no excuse to not install another compressor if it needs to be shut down on a very limited number of days to control peak loads over the course of the winter. Correlating closing of Vermont Yankee to Lyndonville's available electric supply makes no sense at all, Vermont Yankee was not in business to supply Lyndonville electric with power , there's plenty of power on the market these days, it just needs to be purchased.

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FWIW, they specifically identified this as a barrier to their ability to make lots of snow. Perhaps it was more of an excuse than reality. I really don't know.