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Storm Speculation Thread Nov 6-7 2012

billski

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Anyways, back on topic

[FONT=arial,helvetica]SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD337 AM EST MON NOV 05 2012VALID 12Z MON NOV 05 2012 - 12Z WED NOV 07 2012...A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THECOASTAL CAROLINAS BY LATE TUESDAY......VERY WARM TEMPERATURES UNDERNEATH AN UPPER RIDGE IN THESOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL BE COMMONPLACE TO COMMENCE THE WEEK...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE FEATURED TO BEGIN THE WEEK ASAN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE A STRONGTROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EASTWARD. ACROSS THELATTER LOCATION...THE LEAD DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY PUSHINGSOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFTTOWARD THE EAST WHILE CARVING OUT A FAIRLY POTENT TROUGH. EARLYON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORENUMEROUS OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND TOWARD THE SOUTH-CENTRALU.S. AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLEAIR MASS. SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY EVEN BECOME LOCALLYSEVERE FROM THE WESTERN GULF REGION OFF TOWARD THELOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER. THEREAFTER...THIS SYSTEM WILL BEFORCED NORTHWARD ALONG THE GULF STREAM WHERE IT POTENTIALLY WILLINTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET. A BLOCKING RIDGEANCHORING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL LIMIT ANY CHANCE FOR THISSYSTEM TO EJECT INTO THE OPEN OCEAN. THE COMPLEX INTERACTIONEXPECTED CURRENTLY SUPPORTS A PHASING WHICH WOULD ULTIMATELY LEADTO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST A DEEPENING OF THIS SURFACE LOW WHILERISING UP THE COAST WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERNU.S. COASTLINE BY LATE TUESDAY BEFORE THE IMPACTS SPREAD NORTHWARD.[/FONT][FONT=arial,helvetica]
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billski

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LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...BIG PICTURE...MODEL FORECASTS OF THE SURFACE COASTAL LOW POSITION ARE VARIED WITHTHE GGEM CLIPPING CAPE COD THURSDAY EVENING...THE ECMWF NEAR 40N/70WTHURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE GFS HEADED WELL OUT TO SEA. MODEL UPPER AIRFLOW IS SIMILAR THROUGH FRIDAY IN HANDLING EAST COAST CLOSED UPPERLOW. ON FRIDAY THE GFS IS FASTEST IN EJECTING THE UPPER LOW OVERTHE MARITIMES WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST IN MOVING IT OUT SOUTH OFNOVA SCOTIA. GULF OF ALASKA LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC COASTWEDNESDAY-THURSDAY AND SHOVES UPPER RIDGE EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY.THIS RIDGE MOVES OVER THE EASTERN USA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.OVERALL...WE TOOK A BLEND OF GFS ADN ECMWF GRIDS. WHERE APPROPRIATEWE ALSO BLENDED THE GMOS AND HPC GRIDS WITH A FAVORING OF THE ECMWFAND HPC VALUES.DAY-BY-DAY...TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE NIGHT.INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL AS A SECOND SURGE BELOW 850MB...MAINLY AFTER 06Z. SO EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS...BUT NO PCPN ASA DRY LAYER LINGERS BETWEEN 700 MB AND 850 MB INTO WEDNESDAY. WITHFAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS AWAY FROM THE COAST SHOULD DROPDURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. AFTER THAT...AS CLOUDS MOVE INTHESE TEMPS MAY RISE A LITTLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTSIN THE 20S...EXPECT MIN TEMPS AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING AT SOME POINTIN THE NIGHT. FORECAST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/MIN TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF MOSVALUES.WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...GFS CONTINUES A SLOWING TREND IN SOLUTIONS FOR INCOMING CLOUDS ANDPCPN. MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS 0.01 VALUES NO FARTHER NORTH THAN THEMASS PIKE BY 18Z WEDNESDAY AND WITH MOST PROJECTIONS KEEPING THISALONG/SOUTH OF A PLYMOUTH-PROVIDENCE LINE. MEASUREABLE PCPN THENOVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE REGION BY 00Z WITH AGREEMENT THAT ITCONTINUES OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.RAIN...PRECIP WATER VALUES DRAWN NORTH BY THE COASTAL LOW REACH MAXVALUES A LITTLE BELOW 1.5 INCHES. THIS AXIS OF MAX VALUES MOVESACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS PER THE FAST00Z GFS AS WELL AS THE 21Z SREF. GGEM HAS TOTAL PCPN VALUES TOP 2INCHES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF COME IN AT 1.0TO 2 INCHES. WHILE THE EXACT VALUES REMAIN IN QUESTION...CLEARLY APOTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLYTHURSDAY.WIND...PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS THE SURFACE LOW RUNS INTO THEDEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. PRESSURE CHANGES OF 1-2 MB/HOUR MOVE INTOSOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON-EVENING.THIS WILL INCREASE SURFACE WINDS SUBSTANTIALLY. BOTH THE GFS ANDECMWF SHOW A ZONE OF NORTHEAST WINDS AT 925 MB WITH SPEEDS OF 50-75KNOTS. BOTH BRING THESE WINDS IN DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ANDCONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER BRINGING THESEWINDS IN. BOTH MODELS DIMINISH THESE WINDS ON THURSDAY. SOME ORALL OF THIS WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE COULD BE BROUGHT TO THESURFACE IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BE40-50 MPH...BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR 60-80 MPH IF THOSE STRONGER WINDSMIX DOWN.SNOW...THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN SHIELD ALLOWS TIME FORTEMPERATURES TO MODERATE DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING. EVEN SO...THEREREMAINS A CHANCE OF THE PCPN STARTING AS SNOW IN PARTS OF WESTERNMASS AND SOUTHWEST NH. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE IN THE HILLS. THE 03ZSREF SNOW PROBABILTIES SEEM REASONABLE...EXCEPT A LITTLE TOO HIGH ON8 INCH PROBABILITIES.
 

WinnChill

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I still kinda like northern VT resorts to be favored for some snowfall...could see a 3-6" range or so from about MRG thru Jay.
 

WinnChill

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And staying cold for a while???

C, You going to the show this year?

The cold may be a transient thing. High pressure ridging builds back in after this midweek storm, so perhaps a brief warmup next weekend as that works through (maybe watching some severe weather through the Plains/Midwest).

Wish I could go to the show but we have hockey games for the little guy this weekend. We've always wanted to get a booth there but just getting our site rennovations in order are priority this year. Hope you have fun. And I hope you had a decent summer! I'm looking forward to a fun year!
 

John W

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Hello all. Billski and Dr Chill - I love all the info coming down from you guys. Hope everyone is well. Any chance that the Catskills might get enough snow to spin chairs in the region? Would love to get an Oct day trip.....

DIRECTED AT REV:
And to those that are getting out of hand w/ their responses..... Snow and the thought of skiing bring most of us on here great joy which is a very good thing in times like these. My parents live on the water in Freeport and had some flooding. Currently they are dealing with Looters.. My best friend lost everything in Long Beach.. And he keeps asking me about the weather and ski season and most of the info I get is from these fine people....

I understand times are tough and people are hurting. But to begrudge people because of their passion on a site that is dedicated to their passion is not the best use of time or energy. Which is why REV was asked about the reasoning for the post and being on here.

LETS KEEP IT LIGHT AND GOOD LUCK TO THE OTHERS EFFECTED BY THE STORM!!
 

billski

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Hello all. Billski and Dr Chill - I love all the info coming down from you guys. Hope everyone is well. Any chance that the Catskills might get enough snow to spin chairs in the region? Would love to get an Oct day trip.....
You must mean November. Snow in the cats? Probably. But will they open, just for a few days? Prolly not. Too much grief and expense for little revenue. Go skin it ..
 

Puck it

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what are we looking at for snowfall at K-ton and SR for Thursday and Friday? Our minds want to know.
 

ScottySkis

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You must mean November. Snow in the cats? Probably. But will they open, just for a few days? Prolly not. Too much grief and expense for little revenue. Go skin it ..



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Plattekill opened for skiing after big October snow last year. I so sick and tired of cleaning are mess at work and I'm not complaining about it here, but if some mountain got a foot of snow now I be very happy to go ski it instead of playing video games all weekend.
 

ScottySkis

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Hello all. Billski and Dr Chill - I love all the info coming down from you guys. Hope everyone is well. Any chance that the Catskills might get enough snow to spin chairs in the region? Would love to get an Oct day trip.....

DIRECTED AT REV:
And to those that are getting out of hand w/ their responses..... Snow and the thought of skiing bring most of us on here great joy which is a very good thing in times like these. My parents live on the water in Freeport and had some flooding. Currently they are dealing with Looters.. My best friend lost everything in Long Beach.. And he keeps asking me about the weather and ski season and most of the info I get is from these fine people....

I understand times are tough and people are hurting. But to begrudge people because of their passion on a site that is dedicated to their passion is not the best use of time or energy. Which is why REV was asked about the reasoning for the post and being on here.

LETS KEEP IT LIGHT AND GOOD LUCK TO THE OTHERS EFFECTED BY THE STORM!!

Catskills are only forecasted to get an inch or two.

Sent from my ADR6410LVW using Tapatalk 2
 

Cornhead

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Sent from my ADR6410LVW using Tapatalk 2

Plattekill opened for skiing after big October snow last year. I so sick and tired of cleaning are mess at work and I'm not complaining about it here, but if some mountain got a foot of snow now I be very happy to go ski it instead of playing video games all weekend.

I think the fact they were supposed to have a bike race that day may have played into their decision to open. It was basically a private party anyway, they didn't post it on their website, only on Facebook. It seemed like it was all "downhill" from there last year.

I feel your pain Scotty, been flooded twice in five years. Thought for sure Sandy was going to make it thrice in six. Flood clean up is depressing.
 

John W

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Yup... Looks like my season will need to wait.. But its great to smell winter in the air....
 

ScottySkis

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I think the fact they were supposed to have a bike race that day may have played into their decision to open. It was basically a private party anyway, they didn't post it on their website, only on Facebook. It seemed like it was all "downhill" from there last year.

I feel your pain Scotty, been flooded twice in five years. Thought for sure Sandy was going to make it thrice in six. Flood clean up is depressing.
Thanks cornhead, crazy things is all these sheets were throwing out in huge container for trash and the merchandise is disturbing dirty and wet with all kinds of stuff floating through it and smelly, but like 30 people were in the dumpster taking the sheets home on flat carts rolling on bumpy old NYC streets , I'm sure they will sell them on EBay . Platty actually opened up for both mountain biking and skiing that day.


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WinnChill

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Hello all. Billski and Dr Chill - I love all the info coming down from you guys. Hope everyone is well. Any chance that the Catskills might get enough snow to spin chairs in the region? Would love to get an Oct day trip.....

Playing a little catchup on the forum here.....most likely not John. While it was looking like N VT resorts picking up a little before some mixing, that may shift a bit to the east. Any accumulations anywhere (even if for N NH...ie Loon/BW/Cannon/Wildcat) would be light--probably a few inches, give or take--plus this system isn't as amped and basically in the post-mature/decaying stage as it brushes by New England.
 

Puck it

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Playing a little catchup on the forum here.....most likely not John. While it was looking like N VT resorts picking up a little before some mixing, that may shift a bit to the east. Any accumulations anywhere (even if for N NH...ie Loon/BW/Cannon/Wildcat) would be light--probably a few inches, give or take--plus this system isn't as amped and basically in the post-mature/decaying stage as it brushes by New England.

What about K-ton Thursday? Any new snow and What about the wind?
 

WinnChill

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What about K-ton Thursday? Any new snow and What about the wind?

Probably a few inches or so before a bit of mixing--could be just shy of mixing though. Gusty N/NE winds over their slope orientation will make it tough for them to get much out of this one too.
 
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