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Monday and Tuesday Dec17 and 18 snow is possible
- Thread starter ScottySkis
- Start date
kingslug
Well-known member
Looking good...
Euler
Active member
Fingers Crossed!
Puck it
Well-known member
I am liking this forecast from Winny on Tuesday for Cannon. You know where I will be.
drjeff
Well-known member
Looks like with the Sunday evening/Monday event that the primary low will start to track towards the general Buffalo area with a secondary low forming off the Jersey Coast. As the primary low transfers its energy the the offshore secondary low, it should intensify, but likely not start to really intensify for a host of reasons until it gets into the Gulf of Maine. Western Maine and Northern NH look like they'll make out best from this one, but it doesn't look like it will be anything monsterous as it will rapidly move away, and clear out for the much more interesting possible Nor'easter mid next week. That one looks like it will have much more potential energy! 
Cold air might be an issue for both of the next systems, as while it will be inplace, it doesn't look like it will be real cold, so atleast in more Southern locations some mixing might be an issue.
Cold air might be an issue for both of the next systems, as while it will be inplace, it doesn't look like it will be real cold, so atleast in more Southern locations some mixing might be an issue.
BenedictGomez
Well-known member
The 12z GFS just crushed the much bigger potential storm for next week and dragged it out to sea. Hopefully it's wrong and the Euro will continue to show the monster snowstorm.
St. Bear
New member
I can almost guarantee there will be a decent storm next week. I'm driving up to NH on Saturday for Christmas with the extended family. I'm skiing on Sunday morning before everyone comes over, and driving back to Jersey on Monday. I have a history of driving home from ski trips in the snow, so you can thank me later.
drjeff
Well-known member
I read a funny little tidbit on a meterology forum today about next weeks potential storm and the amount of uncertainty about it currently - to paraphrase: The models take the storm anywhere between Buffalo and Bermuda with the ability to produce anything from a few flurries to a few feet! :lol:
I'm not going to spend too much time dreaming and hypothesizing about this one until we're first done with the small event Sunday/Monday
Puck it
Well-known member
I am ready if it does.
4aprice
Well-known member
Wouldn't get too up or down at this point. Models love to lose events and then bring them back as it gets closer. (its hard to pin down energy coming off the Pacific where there are few instruments ie not enough data). Longer term, at least there are signals for good cold.
On a side note, I'm still optimistic about the up coming winter regardless of what happens next week. Got a cat who was very thin last winter and during the warm season who has bulked up big time this late fall. Not scientific but I take it as a good sign.
Alex
Lake Hopatcong, NJ
BenedictGomez
Well-known member
I cant help myself.
And that EURO solo run was an outlier, the ensemble keeps it pretty similar to yesterday, with literally everyone (Poconos, Cats, Dax, Greens, NH, ME) winning.
I'm still sticking to the most accurate model for this being a substantial snowstorm - my leaving for FL the day after.
billski
Active member
It's all base building in my book, since I can't get out anyways!
BG I think you are looking at the wrong models :grin:
BG I think you are looking at the wrong models :grin:
ScottySkis
Well-known member
I hope so. My cousins dogs are both 30% over their body weight supposed to be but that is because we don't have a yard for them to exercise yet.
kingslug
Well-known member
Just looked at the NOAA forecast for Hunter..it changed from snow to freezing rain and sleet for the whole weekend...just can't win anymore...
drjeff
Well-known member
The one thing that I have noticed now for the last few years, is that with long range modeling programs, is that far out they tend to overplay both the quantity of cold air and also how cold the air will be, especially early season when the waters of the Atlantic are still pretty warm. As the system gets closer and the models begin to come together in agreement, then they seem to start to pick up on the fact that that air over the Atlantic and the water that gets picked up and incorporated into the system is much "warmer" and as such that line from all snow to mix tends to migrate North and West, even with a favorable storm track. Come late January and February when the waters of the Atlantic tend to be "cold" that's when anecdotally I've noticed that the frozen precip areas tend to be more consistant a long way out
kingslug
Well-known member
I've only managed to get 1 day in so far, usualy would have at least 4 or 5...and that was at Killington on only a few runs open...the times..they are a changing...
billski
Active member
Great point Glenn. Get 'em out and let them pack it down so we've got a nice base to work with. I'll get to it on January 2nd!
ScottySkis
Well-known member
Snowforecast.com is saying MountSnow to get 8-11 inches of snow on Sunday is that correct?
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