• Welcome to AlpineZone, the largest online community of skiers and snowboarders in the Northeast!

    You may have to REGISTER before you can post. Registering is FREE, gets rid of the majority of advertisements, and lets you participate in giveaways and other AlpineZone events!

Accuweather 2013-14 Winter Forecast

ScottySkis

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 16, 2011
Messages
12,294
Points
48
Location
Middletown NY
I am reading November will feel like 50 s and December I guess I can leave skis in the shop. Will we get a good winter , maybe time to fly out West and not think about north east uncountable weather.:confused:
http://www.upstatesnow.com/
Check out the video below which details the latest trends and what we are thinking for the winter of 2013-14. If you prefer to read the first call, it is in text form below. This article will appear in the second edition of Snowbelt Magazine, published by the Boonville Herald and the Adirondack Tourist... hitting newstands soon!
Winter 2013-14
The Mysterious Winter of 2013-14
By Rich Lupia

So why am I calling this winter mysterious? We’ve seen so many signs of impending big cold and snow… both from our study of the weather across North America and anecdotally here in snow country. From big apple harvests to changes in the animals to the first real October snowfall in many years, it does seem like we are in for it. Or are we?
The Pacific water temperatures have been temperamental. They are up, then down. This is causing the PNA (Pacific North American pattern) to swing wildly from positive (good cold and snow here) to negative (fast moving storms and mild here). What this means in simple terms: The jet stream has become unpredictable and it’s not setting up for very long in one place. Just when it seems like it is locking in to a pattern, it changes!
So what is going for us? El Nino/La Nina: No change. We are neutral or “La Nada” to stay. The trends point to a weak El Nino developing in 2014 but we are in the range where snowier and colder winters have tended to occur. The Lake Ontario Temperatures have cooled some but are still a little above normal. It is still favorable for heavy lake effect events in the next 4 to 12 weeks if the cold winds align properly. There is certainly potential there. The biggest thing going for us is the buildup of snow and ice over the Arctic, Canada and Siberia. At one point we were running at the fastest and largest buildup since 1976-77. Long timers remember how brutal the winter of 1977 was. The growth of snow and ice has eased a bit off of this record pace, but it is still growing fast. As of October 31, we have the best snow and ice cover over the Northern Hemisphere since 2002-03. That winter was robust with above average snow and below average temperatures, but is not in the hall of fame known as the Winter of 1977. It takes a lot to equal the legendary winters of 1947, 1977 and 1994. Unless these other signs become more convincing, I’m not ready to go for “the big one”. Why? The Arctic Oscillation, one of the many factors we look at to determine medium and long range temperatures has swung wildly positive going into November. This, combined with a negative PNA as mentioned above, will likely mean a November filled with fast moving storms and swings in temperature up and down. It looks unlikely for a long cold pattern or a snowy start like in the 1990’s.
Given all the factors, snow and ice to our north is good, and it is a big factor in our winter here and will ultimately bring us at least a normal winter, probably a solid one. First call for the winter on snowfall is 10 to 33% above normal snowfall for the season. This doesn’t put us into “Top 10” status, especially with a slow November start likely and the better chance for cold and snow late in the month, if not early December. December should be a stronger month. Temperatures will average a little below normal, 1 to 3 degrees below, and we haven’t see that cold in at least a half dozen years. We will make a final revision to the forecast on December 1st.

Print Friendly Return to list ...
[h=4]Videos[/h]



Upstatesnow-com.png
 

skiberg

Member
Joined
Sep 28, 2010
Messages
588
Points
18
so interesting. The forecast really is in flux this year and the early season prognostications seemed to have changed from even one month ago. I really like this forecast.
 
Top