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The Official 1/15 (MLK Day) Storm Discussion Thread

Greg

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The forecasts have been steadily improving and trending colder. Looking mostly snowy on Monday in the north country now. Feel free to discuss.
 

RIDEr

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The latest (which changes by the hour) for the Catskills is a mix on Saturday, cloudy on Sunday and rain on Monday. I'll be spending Saturday at Belleayre... I was hoping to spend it at Plattekill, but they're not guaranteeing more than 3 trails open top to bottom.
 

Greg

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2knees

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Brad Field, during the 6 o'clock news, (nbc affiliate WVIT) was predicting it to turn to snow even here in connecticut,

but brad field is about as accurate as accuweather. i was shocked to hear him say it though.
 

powderfreak

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Most Significant Winter Storm of the Season on Monday

Alright folks, trying to put together the pieces to get a column together
and while I want to wait till Saturday for a final forecast (48hrs lead time
is what I like for a final product), I'm trying to get something together
for a post tomorrow for those coming up over the holiday weekend. Still
several details to work out, track and strength of the arctic air the main
problems at this juncture. Thus, precip type is what I'm trying to sort
out. I feel the total liquid precip for each area will be the easy part but
where it snows, sleets, ices, or rains is a tough call. Here's my prelim
thinking and we are talking mostly a Monday event and possibly stretching
into Monday night. Full effects will likely not be felt till Tuesday
morning at the mountains so if you're looking for powder, have MLK day off,
maybe watch this thing and make back up plans to call in sick on Tuesday if
it snows a foot:

My gut is telling me the 6" southern boundary runs from Gore Mountain to
Killington to Sunday River with sleet mixed in. Best shot at a 10-12"
snowfall would include Whiteface, SB, MRG, Bolton, Stowe, Smuggs, Jay,
Cannon, and Sugarloaf. Those should mix with sleet for a time with the
exception of Whiteface, Jay, and Sugarloaf which might be far enough north
to avoid the warm nose aloft when the low approaches. Personal experience
would lead me to believe the Green Mountain spine resorts see highest
snowfall especially if the low deepens as it passes. Model QPF might be low
but NNW flow behind the low can keep mod snow going for several hours along
the spine after deeper moisture has left the region. Another thing is some
of the GFS panels have been showing ripe conditions for some Champlain
Valley convergence behind the system...but haven't checked any lake
parameters for enhancement into northern Addison County (Sugarbush/MRG region).
Either way, I think the northern spine picks up a couple more inches than modeled QPF would make
one believe.

Possibly significant icing occurs in the Saratoga/Lake George region of NY,
Mohawk Valley, northern Capital District, southern VT, northern Berkshires
west through the northern MA border and into southern NH. Someone's going
to see marginally damaging ice out of this.

-Scott

ps: My weather column is located at...posts are irregular and correlated to snowfall chances...higher the chance of decent snow, higher the chance I'll be posting regularly.
http://www.firsttracksonline.com/index.php?name=News&catid=&topic=9
 

SKIQUATTRO

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Great post Scott....any long range speculations for the 20th weekend in the Stowe/Smuggs area?? Thought I saw a rumor of a potential Nor'easter for that time frame....
 

ajl50

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Scott is the best forecaster around for the north east. Really talented and takes his time and gets his forecasts right. HOWEVER I think he, like all forecasters, would like to take a mea culpa on the 12/26 wiff.
So for him to come back with this forecast after the last big one busted means something.
Great to have link or whatever...
 

2knees

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powderfreak, thanks for taking the time to post that. Its absolutely awesome. please feel free to drop some more beta in here from time to time. :smile:
 

loafer89

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The blocking ridge of high pressure looks to remain in place for at least the next week out west, keeping the cold air coming in to our area from Canada. At least all of New England will have excellent snowmaking weather next week.
 

powderfreak

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Scott is the best forecaster around for the north east. Really talented and takes his time and gets his forecasts right. HOWEVER I think he, like all forecasters, would like to take a mea culpa on the 12/26 wiff.
So for him to come back with this forecast after the last big one busted means something.
Great to have link or whatever...

You're right. Man did that one hurt. I forecast for myself and share the details...I went to the Adirondacks where I thought it would be ground zero and we got 4" followed by a lot of freezing rain then plain rain. It was ulgy. I was thinkin 8-12" there, too.

Anyway, feeling pretty comfortable about this one though there's still a significant spread in the temp possibilities. Albany and adjacent areas of southern VT, northern Berkshires, and even the Catskills could be the battle ground if this goes any further south. Thinking max snowfall is on a latitude boundary of Rutland and the US/Canadian border after viewing tonight's model data. Will be interesting to see how the NWS offices around the region handle this in their overnight discussions and forecasts.

I've been asked several times about the storm possibly near the 20th and it is a possibility though small chance this far out. I'm certainly focusing on the upcoming impact of this next storm. With that said, arctic air will be in place so snowmaking will be able to run 24/7 all the way to West Virginia next week. And its going to be the good snowmaking that's done at 15F during the daytime with crews not needing a lot of compressed air to tap the full water supplies. Look for a lot more guns going than we've seen all season as the air compressors will not be limiting them as much anymore.
 

TwinTips21

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Scott- I noticed the possibility of a few storms coming up the coast throughtout the next two weeks. When looking at the gfs runs, the storms tend be south and east but is it true that the gfs usually has a south-east bias?
 

powderfreak

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Scott- I noticed the possibility of a few storms coming up the coast throughtout the next two weeks. When looking at the gfs runs, the storms tend be south and east but is it true that the gfs usually has a south-east bias?
******************************
EDIT: Mods, sorry about the graphic size...its just the way it is on the website. I wasn't sure if it would fit the normal text box or expand it but it looks like it expanded it. Sorry for that but I wanted to post those model snowfall differences to illustrate the sharp cut-off to the south. I know it is extremely annoying to read a post that you have to scroll left and right to read.
******************************
Yes, it is to some extent. That's also the reason why I don't buy quite the southward push of the GFS with this storm on Monday. If we were to verify with the GFS, the significant snowfall would be pushed 50 miles south of where I have outlined above. In other words, it would look like this map, which is the GFS's version of snowfall accumulation's for Monday's storm. You see most of VT and NH are covered in 8" or greater snowfall. The Green Mountain spine is easily seen with the 10" gradient stretching from Jay Peak to Mount Snow.

WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif


Now, I don't think this is correct but I'm sure many would love to check out this site:
http://www.wxcaster.com//regional_snowfall.htm
Its easily to understand if you take a few minutes and scroll through it. There are multiple models (NAM, WRF, and GFS) and they are all run on different grid sizes, with the GFS being the largest. The local WRF and NAM have smaller grid sizes and therefore can pick out differences in the topography better. The NAM has the main snow belt staying at Killington northward while the GFS would crush southern VT. Here's the NAM run this morning:

CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif


Now, this is only through 12z/7amEST on Monday with snowfall continuing through the day on Monday. Looking back towards the Chicago area, you can see a larger are of 8-14" of snow and that's likely what the max zone will see (no changes to my forecast, 6-12" with the chance of slightly higher in the maximum snowfall region). But you can easily pick out how this model has the fire-hose of snow a few counties northward of the GFS.

The battle zone is going to be in that latitudinal area with a sharp cut-off as you head south. With one American model showing 0" of snow for a place like Mount Snow and another American model showing 10", that's a tough forecast. What happens in the Plains over the next day will be vital to seeing if areas further south, even into Albany's Capital District and the RT2 corridor in MA, can get appreciable snow. But remember, what you're not seeing on those charts is ice. That sharp snowfall gradient would include a mix with ice for those who see less than 6" on the southern end, and significant icing near where the 1" or less snowfall area is and up to 50 miles south of that. Makes sense right?

So I have a pretty decent idea on my overall forecast, and it remains unchanged from my first post. Band of 6-12" is going to stretch from west to east across the northeast at some latitude. Just south of there, a sharp gradient will exist with snow/sleet mix, then south of that sleet/freezing rain, then further south significant (possibly damaging) freezing rain. Personally, a few inches of sleet isn't that bad as it provides a really dense base but can make roads extremely dangerous (more so than freezing rain, contrary to popular belief). With today's salting, they can raise the road temp enough so rain doesn't freezing on pavement, at least in areas that see regular traffic while 1-2" of sleet is like driving on ice marbles. Freezing rain has the highest impact on bringing down branches and causing scattered power outages as trees get weighed down (especially the evergreens).

Since Stowe is my home mountain, that's where I'll be heading, but I'm getting this feeling that this is going to be either a Killington special or a Sugarbush/MRG special. Personally, I'd head to the Mad River Valley to be sure, but Gore Mountain in the Adirondacks would also be advisable. The reason I'm also saying the more western mountains might get better snow is that in my experience, while the White Mountain resorts in NH and also Sunday River/Sugarloaf in Maine will see 6"+, this is not a coastal storm, the best moisture is going to have to move across the Adirondacks, then Greens, before it gets to NH and ME. Some Atlantic moisture could work its way into the storm as it nears the Gulf of Maine after tracking through southern/central New England, so it could all even out. With nor'easters I usually keep the heaviest snowfall from the Green Mountain spine eastward and favor Cannon, Wildcat, and Sugarloaf...but with this sort of situation I'd favor the Green Mountain spine westward.

Remember, this is mostly a Monday storm and the best skiing will likely be on Tuesday after it can get groomed out (if that's your thing) or on Tuesday morning when Patrols can check out the new snow and drop ropes. Nothing wrong with storm skiing on Monday (heck, I'll be out there), but I'm also planning on skiing on Tuesday as that's when you might see trail numbers increase.

Wind does not look to be a large factor with this storm so I see no impact to lift operations (ie. wind holds so your left with a day of skiing the beginner double like we often see at the big resorts during storms).

I'm heading off to take a few runs on Mount Mansfield but will be back with more this evening. Take care! Hope this all isn't too vague, and let me know if you want more meteorology talk or just my thoughts in plain English. :grin:
 
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