Feb 7 -9 Snow Forecasting (or) AlpineZone Summit Powder?

Smellytele · Feb 3, 2014

I take this all back :slap:

I had the wrong storm - I was talking the one for Wednesday then noticed this thread was for the weekend. Although the maps BG posted were for Wednesday.

BenedictGomez · Feb 3, 2014

Smellytele said:
I take this all back I had the wrong storm - I was talking the one for Wednesday then noticed this thread was for the weekend. Although the maps BG posted were for Wednesday.

Yeah, I'm taking these snows 1 at a time. The Wednesday event was never looking like a northern Vermont or way far north deal etc...., so whoever was pimping that was likely a hype-ster. Southern Vermont should do WELL though.

And hey, you never know. As I mentioned a few posts ago, the models were 100 MILES WRONG on today's storm. That's significant to say the least.

BenedictGomez · Feb 3, 2014

This isnt a prediction, but a post from a Met who thinks the 12z GFS today finally "makes sense" in terms of the physics at play and the result (i.e. track seems logical, heavy snowfall but not 1000 year apocalypse storm).

This would be awesome for ski country, particularly Cats, Poconos, Berks, and s.VT. This ski season is starting to look great, and that's an understatement!

catsup948 · Feb 3, 2014

Speed is a concern for the storm. If no blocking occurs this will spin up the coast pretty quickly. It is a massive storm though.

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BenedictGomez · Feb 3, 2014

12Z Euro

CLOBBERS all of NJ, Poconos, Catskills, Berks, Massachusetts, and Southeast New Hampshire with BIG SNOWS.

Models seem to be latching onto somewhat of an agreement now, but this far out much could still change. This has great potential for the Catskills though.

EDIT: And for Scotty, verbatim Euro snowmap puts about 10 inches on Platty, but that doesn't consider elevation etc.... so upside to that for sure.

Euler · Feb 3, 2014

@BG: I've been lurking on AmericanWX lately and see the term "VERBATIM" used frequently. What does it mean in terms of looking at model maps?

BenedictGomez said:
12Z Euro

CLOBBERS all of NJ, Poconos, Catskills, Berks, Massachusetts, and Southeast New Hampshire with BIG SNOWS.

Models seem to be latching onto somewhat of an agreement now, but this far out much could still change. This has great potential for the Catskills though.

EDIT: And for Scotty, verbatim Euro snowmap puts about 10 inches on Platty, but that doesn't consider elevation etc.... so upside to that for sure.

gladerider · Feb 3, 2014

BG, please tell me you made a mistake by not including SVT and NVT...

heading up to jay peak on thursday next week....

BenedictGomez · Feb 3, 2014

Euler said:
@BG: I've been lurking on AmericanWX lately and see the term "VERBATIM" used frequently. What does it mean in terms of looking at model maps?

It means, "taken exactly" (in other words, if exactly what the model shows were to happen in real life).

gladerider said:
BG, please tell me you made a mistake by not including SVT and NVT...
heading up to jay peak on thursday next week....

It will snow some inches n.VT too for sure, just not the major "exciting" snows others will get to the south. The 12z GFS gets decent snow into southern VT, the 12z Euro nimbly dances around s.VT. Again, SIX days out, there could be miles upon miles of change yet, though it is interesting (IMO) that there's so much agreement already.

Smellytele · Feb 3, 2014

BenedictGomez said:
Yeah, I'm taking these snows 1 at a time. The Wednesday event was never looking like a northern Vermont or way far north deal etc...., so whoever was pimping that was likely a hype-ster. Southern Vermont should do WELL though.

And hey, you never know. As I mentioned a few posts ago, the models were 100 MILES WRONG on today's storm. That's significant to say the least.

Well I have seen this on the NOAA site a few times over the last few runs:

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. IN GENERAL...12Z MODEL SUITE WAS
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE

Wavewheeler · Feb 3, 2014

this is what i want to see..if it trends more north, even better!:

benedictgomez said:
this isnt a prediction, but a post from a met who thinks the 12z gfs today finally "makes sense" in terms of the physics at play and the result (i.e. Track seems logical, heavy snowfall but not 1000 year apocalypse storm).

This would be awesome for ski country, particularly cats, poconos, berks, and s.vt. This ski season is starting to look great, and that's an understatement!

Boston Bulldog · Feb 3, 2014

GFS comes north

BenedictGomez · Feb 3, 2014

Boston Bulldog said:
GFS comes north

It's the off-run though. I'd like to wait and see the 00z to see if it's real or not. That slightly different track makes a WORLD of difference though, that's pretty much the optimal path for ALL of ski country, from West Virginia to Poconos to Cats to Vt to Maine would all score if that path verified.

Boston Bulldog · Feb 3, 2014

BenedictGomez said:
It's the off-run though. I'd like to wait and see the 00z to see if it's real or not. That slightly different track makes a WORLD of difference though, that's pretty much the optimal path for ALL of ski country, from West Virginia to Poconos to Cats to Vt to Maine would all score if that path verified.

I'm hoping it comes true. That storm is an absolute beast that spreads the wealth for both SNE and NNE.

catsup948 · Feb 3, 2014

Bring this inside the benchmark and over the cape. Interior New England crush job!

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rocojerry · Feb 3, 2014

NOAA forecast perhaps Mondays a sicker sick day than Friday? You could always catch the bad cold and be out Friday and Monday too....

Boston Bulldog · Feb 3, 2014

catsup948 said:
Bring this inside the benchmark and over the cape. Interior New England crush job!

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It's inside the benchmark as of now. Continue this trend and we'll be over the canal (hopefully)

ZYDECORICH · Feb 3, 2014

The VooDoo lady called and said pack your stuff, a bomb will be going off on sat/sun.

BenedictGomez · Feb 3, 2014

00z GFS is dramatically different than any other recent GFS.

Basically skyrockets north, is way warmer......so warm even the Catskills would be part rain for a bit, and is a massive snowstorm for most of New England.

My guess? I bet the GFS is basically doing the GFS thing right now.

Boston Bulldog · Feb 3, 2014

BenedictGomez said:
00z GFS is dramatically different than any other recent GFS.

Basically skyrockets north, is way warmer......so warm even the Catskills would be part rain for a bit, and is a massive snowstorm for most of New England.

My guess? I bet the GFS is basically doing the GFS thing right now.

Total bomb. The thing drops 20mb in 12 hours!

BenedictGomez · Feb 3, 2014

Boston Bulldog said:
Total bomb. The thing drops 20mb in 12 hours!

10 to 1 odds the GFS is an island. This is about the timeframe when it does something completely goofy.

Feb 7 -9 Snow Forecasting (or) AlpineZone Summit Powder?

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