Feb 7 -9 Snow Forecasting (or) AlpineZone Summit Powder?

fbrissette · Feb 5, 2014

skiberg said:
What's a weather analog

It's a case from the historical past where atmospheric conditions (as defined by several spatialized variables such as wind speed, specific humidity, pressure, temps etc) were very similar to current conditions.

The closer the analogue, the closest you can expect the present outcome to match the outcome of the historical period (analogue).

However, as with numerical models, lack of actual observations of atmospheric conditions coupled with the chaotic nature of the climate system renders long-term forecasting (>5 days) very suspect.

skiberg · Feb 5, 2014

Ok, makes sense. Basically its something we all do when we talk about weather. Sort of like a more sophisticated Famers Almanac. I think you may draw a correlation and it may be predictive. Combine that with the computer modeling and you can draw a reasonable forecast.

Boston Bulldog · Feb 5, 2014

GFS is a step back in the right direction. Moderate snowfall for New England (3-6/4-8 inches)

BenedictGomez · Feb 5, 2014

Boston Bulldog said:
GFS is a step back in the right direction. Moderate snowfall for New England (3-6/4-8 inches)

Canadian model is out too.

Has a snowstorm down in the Carolinas, Virginia, maybe Delmarva etc... and then out to sea.

BenedictGomez · Feb 5, 2014

12z Euro has middling snowstorm for northeast

Smellytele · Feb 5, 2014

Models are all over the place day to day. Kind of like they say about your 401k. Don't continuously stare at it or you'll drive yourself crazy.

BenedictGomez · Feb 5, 2014

Here's a great depiction of why the Sunday/Monday storm doesnt look like a big deal at the moment, it's not phasing. The timing isnt right. Like two ships passing in the night instead of linking up.

ScottySkis · Feb 5, 2014

Snow Sunday morning please.

catsup948 · Feb 5, 2014

This might be a late bloomer. I'd take even a smaller event after today's foot.

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Wavewheeler · Feb 5, 2014

If we get another useless coastal POS storm and NOTHING up north I'm going to throw myself off a cliff. :sadwalk:

But first I'm heading out to enjoy what fell last night and today. :snow:

I'll worry about Sunday on Saturday.

abc · Feb 5, 2014

Wavewheeler said:
If we get another useless coastal POS storm and NOTHING up north I'm going to throw myself off a cliff.

But first I'm heading out to enjoy what fell last night and today. I'll worry about Sunday on Saturday.

With what had fallen, you'll have a nice soft landing off the cliff!

Wavewheeler · Feb 5, 2014

abc said:
With what had fallen, you'll have a nice soft landing off the cliff!

Depends on where the cliff is...down here we got nothing but rain and ice and what was snow is frozen slush... :sadwalk:

So I'll have to make an excuse to drive north again..

Tin · Feb 6, 2014

Sunday is looking.like a 2-4" SNE deal right now. But Wednesday looks interesting.

Feb 7 -9 Snow Forecasting (or) AlpineZone Summit Powder?

fbrissette

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