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One last 2013/14 snowstorm?

BenedictGomez

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This would be just a bizarre setup with razor think margins, and it's still 7 days out with low-ish probability, but:

A) This is possibly the last hurrah for the Weather subforum, so..... why not. :dontknow:
B) The 2 best models both have it

A minimum of 6" in n.VT etc... if it verified.
 

St. Bear

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Once again, the mainstream media is pushing these early model runs. My mother mentioned that it was going to snow in NH next Thurs. She has no business knowing this.
 

WWF-VT

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I am taking off my winter tires next Thursday so I hope it means final round of snow in VT
 

BenedictGomez

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Once again, the mainstream media is pushing these early model runs. My mother mentioned that it was going to snow in NH next Thurs. She has no business knowing this.

I ran these myself.

This isnt a "lone wolf" run showing snow, it's been several days in a row, and on the two most accurate models.

Precipitation looks good for the mountains, just too early to tell exactly where and whether it will be cold enough for snow (we'll need some luck there), but right now the models say yes.
 

catsup948

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I still have my winter tires on! Temps are going to crash Tuesday after maybe tickling 60 Monday!

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JDMRoma

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My snows came off last week too........would love to get the chance to test out the AWD with my Summer tires :)
 

BenedictGomez

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It's really dicey with timing and temps, and this could only be an ADK and northern Vermont (Stowe, Smuggs, Jay) thing in the first panel, but it's still there.

The first panel has just a TON of precipitation, I imagine it would be a monster hit for Whiteface, but it might be a mix of rain, sleet, snow for Stowe, Smuggs, Jay, etc... depending on temps as it's really borderline there.

P6_GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif


This second panel, however, is growing colder, and would be all snow for Whiteface, all of Vermont, all of New Hampshire, and even the Catskill mountains that are still open like Hunter. This is still a pretty good amount of snow, though it might be on top of sleet and rain etc... Hopefully if would replenish what's lost in the few 50s days and perhaps Monday's 65 degree mountain temps.

P6_GZ_D5_PN_156_0000.gif
 

Savemeasammy

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I would love to see the mountains get some more action.


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catsup948

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Maybe some thunder for southern new england as Monday could be a bit humid ahead of a wicked cold front!

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BenedictGomez

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Intriguing. How would Maine do from this?

If it happens?

The further west you are the better: ADK > VT > NH> ME

Still a huge if.

It's on the models (even the horrendous US gov GFS has it now), but it's a Ruth Goldberg type of storm in that a lot of things have to happen right for snow to work. However, if the southern air is a bit slower than currently modeled? Then it would be game-on for an April storm to remember.
 
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BenedictGomez

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To get the gist of what I'm saying:

This is a 12-hour pane, and MUCH of this would be rain with snow the last 2,3,5 hours etc...

P6_GZ_D5_PN_132_0000.gif


BUT.....

This is the 12 hour pane immediately following it, and ALL of this would be snow, and even on it's own it would be impressive.
P6_GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif


So if the southern energy is slower than modeled, it would allow for the colder air to be in place earlier, and more of that first pane would be snow rather than rain/sleet/mix. Lots of "ifs", and it's silly really 5 days out other than it's exciting snow porn to look at and hope for.
 

BenedictGomez

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Thanks, appreciate it very much.

When do you think we'll have a more definitive idea?

Twelve minutes before it happens.

Honestly, even if it doesnt "fall off the map" in the next few days or the temps dont surge above where snow isnt possible, even if this is on the models 24 hours out, I dont think many people will have the foggiest idea what will happen.

Which is why, IMO, you're not hearing ANY Mets even talk about this. They're not touching it with a ten-foot pole yet. Way too many variables with this, and the margins are small.
 

catsup948

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This is a thread the needle event. A lot has to go right for this to produce. One thing that is really interesting is Monday morning it could be 50 for the low and Thursday morning some of the same spots could be hovering around zero. Winter refuses to die up north!

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