2014-2015 Winter Forecast (here we go)

dlague · Jul 11, 2014

WELL! They are starting to come out and everything seems optimistic for colder and snowier conditions!?

TheSIWeather.com blog discusses the NOAA CFS model forecast for next winter’s Pacific sea surface temperatures and how the forecast seems to favor a colder, snowier winter setup for the Eastern U.S. akin to the notorious 2003-03 and 2009-10 winters. Let’s take a closer look at the claim.

View attachment 12969

Here are a few links:

winter-2014-15-a-way-too-early-look-at-a-cold-and-snowy-possibility?

For you technical types

preliminary-enso-outlook-for-winter

Something to watch!

fbrissette · Jul 11, 2014

Here we go again with this non-sense. While El Nino has an important effect on the West Coast, it has essentially no impact in New-England. Seasonal correlations between mean precipitation, mean temperatures and EL-Nino are non-existent for the north-east. They keep cranking up those forecast cause it makes people talk and creates lots of website hits.

Puck it · Jul 11, 2014

But we love it! Buzz killer!

jack97 · Jul 12, 2014

fbrissette said:
Here we go again with this non-sense.

lol.... kinda of funny given you help in developing climate models for the IPCC. The performance of these models is lacking.

Climate+Models+Lower+Troposhere+Temp.Satellite+Measurements.2012.jpg

fbrissette said:
While El Nino has an important effect on the West Coast, it has essentially no impact in New-England. Seasonal correlations between mean precipitation, mean temperatures and EL-Nino are non-existent for the north-east. They keep cranking up those forecast cause it makes people talk and creates lots of website hits.

I was living in CA when they had droughts, they would track every storm coming from the Pacific, so the El Nino is a major factor on which part of the part of the west gets the moisture. What I found interesting is how those same storms travel across the country toward the east coast and further develop into a snow or rain event.

NOAA has been predicting the El Nino has a 70% of developing by the end of summer and a 80% chance of developing by fall or winter. Bastardi is hinting that we have more of the same winter as last year or worse, I'm assuming he thinks its the scenario that is outlined in the vid. He and Aleo haven't called it yet, maybe they want to see the trends develop more.

BTW, Bastardi and Aleo runs a private/subscription weather service, they get paid by the value and accuracy of their predictions. So far, they have been nailing most of the major storms and long range forecast.

fbrissette · Jul 12, 2014

jack97 said:
lol.... kinda of funny given you help in developing climate models for the IPCC. The performance of these models is lacking.

I was living in CA when they had droughts, they would track every storm coming from the Pacific, so the El Nino is a major factor on which part of the part of the west gets the moisture. What I found interesting is how those same storms travel across the country toward the east coast and further develop into a snow or rain event.

NOAA has been predicting the El Nino has a 70% of developing by the end of summer and a 80% chance of developing by fall or winter. Bastardi is hinting that we have more of the same winter as last year or worse, I'm assuming he thinks its the scenario that is outlined in the vid. He and Aleo haven't called it yet, maybe they want to see the trends develop more.

BTW, Bastardi and Aleo runs a private/subscription weather service, they get paid by the value and accuracy of their predictions. So far, they have been nailing most of the major storms and long range forecast.

You're doing it again. Once again you're bringing climate change into a thread that is NOT about global warming. I was merely commenting that ENSO has no impact on New-England weather - something that is well documented.

And I have no idea where you picked this idea that I helped in developing climate models for the IPCC ???

Edd · Jul 12, 2014

fbrissette said:
And I have no idea where you picked this idea that I helped in developing climate models for the IPCC ???

The global warming "conspiracy" goes so deep you didn't even know you were involved. That's some sinister shit. Now your eyes are open, my friend.

snoseek · Jul 12, 2014

A little early but honestly I can't get enough of this stuff.

After the past three winters I really want a decent one. California is due, not sure whether I want to roll the dice there again though. I'll be watching this thread even if its all voodoo science

jack97 · Jul 13, 2014

fbrissette said:
You're doing it again. Once again you're bringing climate change into a thread that is NOT about global warming. I was merely commenting that ENSO has no impact on New-England weather - something that is well documented.

But climate is always changing, in addition, this well documented.

However by the so called 97%, we should not have winters with heavy snow fall.... well that's what the eco-church said back around 2000. But with the warming still occurring in their models, that makes this thread is moot with respect winter. Maybe I should sell my ski gear on ebay because skiing will be obsolete.

fbrissette said:
And I have no idea where you picked this idea that I helped in developing climate models for the IPCC ???

Contributing toward climate research to make the AGW hypothesis appear scientific is another means in development.

dlague · Jul 13, 2014

Getting back on track - El Niño effects the west our weather comes for the northwest, west and southwest so in effect what happens out west can possibly have an impact on the northeast due to the jet stream!

.......

jack97 · Jul 13, 2014

dlague said:
Getting back on track - El Niño effects the west our weather comes for the northwest, west and southwest so in effect what happens out west can possibly have an impact on the northeast due to the jet stream!

.......

In addition, we have the AMO in transition and the solar cycle weakening. The latter according to some solar physicist is the reason we have been getting the changes in the jet stream.

Bastardi is an ocean guy meaning he thinks the PDO and AMO will be a better indicator of the type of winter we will get. Not sure if he made the call yet but I be checking up on his forecast... its better than porn.

Not Sure · Jul 13, 2014

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/12/coldest-antarctic-june-ever-recorded/
Coldest June on record .Any French speaking readers, please clarify the additional sunlight question. I don't see how they get additional sunlight , maybe they're refering to lack of cloud cover?

jack97 · Jul 13, 2014

Summer is about half over, arctic temps are below the reconstructed mean temps. That region didn't have much days with temps above (fresh) water freezing.

btw, what's with the foreign sites, they are reporting unprecedented polar conditions....the ice is suppose to be melted away by now.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

jack97 · Jul 13, 2014

it's snowing in the Austrian alps....I thought skiing and riding was suppose to be non existence in this region.

Austrian Alps

hmmm.... maybe AGW is only occurring in the models and no where else.

deadheadskier · Jul 13, 2014

What do your last two posts have to do with the 2014-2015 North American Winter Forecast?

jack97 · Jul 13, 2014

deadheadskier said:
What do your last two posts have to do with the 2014-2015 North American Winter Forecast?

They are indicators that the climate is heading for a cooling period. Bastardi and Aleo have seen trends that the regions in the Atlantic Oceans temps (SST) is in transition from a warm to cold phase. The Pacific is already in its cold phase. The Arctic temps or ice coverage is another indicator that the Atlantic is starting to cool. Snow this early in the Alps is another indicator the NH is going in the cold phase.

4aprice · Jul 14, 2014

jack97 said:
Bastardi is an ocean guy meaning he thinks the PDO and AMO will be a better indicator of the type of winter we will get. Not sure if he made the call yet but I be checking up on his forecast... its better than porn.

JB has been saying that he believes next winter will be nasty (good for us snow geese). The one thing he has been consistent on is that calls for a big El Nino were overblown (looks like most are backing off that now). Look for a primary call in Sept and a final call in November.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

St. Bear · Jul 14, 2014

I like Bastardi, but you need to take him with a grain of salt. If everything he says comes true, everywhere north of the Mason-Dixon Line would get 300" of snow. I take what he says, combine it with what traditional media says, and the outcome is usually somewhere in the middle.

jack97 · Jul 14, 2014

4aprice said:
The one thing he has been consistent on is that calls for a big El Nino were overblown (looks like most are backing off that now)

Not picking on you b/c you have cool about things.....IMO, the reason the big El Nino got hyped was two fold; end the drought in the SW and that it would spike up the temps from the 17 to 18 year pause.

The scientist who know their stuff predicted months in advance that since the PDO is in a cold phase this upcoming El Nino would be moderate to neutral.

Cannonball · Jul 14, 2014

jack97 said:
btw, what's with the foreign sites, they are reporting unprecedented polar conditions....

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

I guess they are just reporting the data. The same data as the US sites actually, so not that surprising. BTW, thanks for sharing that site I hadn't checked it out before. I have to admit, knowing your previous take on this issue I thought when you said "unprecedented" it was probably going to be some wacky website with a twisted data. But this is a pretty good site that shows the same arctic sea ice loss that everyone else is reporting. I was (pleasantly) surprised to find that you are now looking at the same data as everyone else. Kudos to you for being open to coming around on this. It really is pretty wild to see this rapid ice loss and it certainly is unprecedented in modern terms.

But the short-term good news for us is that despite the longterm trends, there are lots of indicators for a snowy 14-15!!!

thetrailboss · Jul 14, 2014

dlague said:
WELL! They are starting to come out and everything seems optimistic for colder and snowier conditions!?

View attachment 12970

Here are a few links:

winter-2014-15-a-way-too-early-look-at-a-cold-and-snowy-possibility?

For you technical types

preliminary-enso-outlook-for-winter

Something to watch!

Ugh. No! :roll:

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