2014-2015 Winter Forecast (here we go)

BenedictGomez · Feb 19, 2015

dlague said:
Further south in NH and in MA it may not hold as snowfall.

Check out my last post with most recent data. NH would be good to go. Berks MIGHT see a tiny bit of mixing, but no big deal.

I'll really want to see the 12z Canadian, because it's been good this winter and is the warmest of the models, but the last run was much colder.

VTKilarney · Feb 19, 2015

This is fantastic news. Let's hope this holds up.

BenedictGomez · Feb 19, 2015

12z Canadian is slightly warmer than last run (I think), but still looks okay.

BenedictGomez · Feb 19, 2015

My "Go/No-Go" Vermont decision for next weekend will have to be made via tonight's 00z runs. Saturday looks fine, but Friday is dicey.

Not Sure · Feb 19, 2015

BenedictGomez said:
My "Go/No-Go" Vermont decision for next weekend will have to be made via tonight's 00z runs. Saturday looks fine, but Friday is dicey.

So I guess Pa is Doomed as usual ?
I've seen some forecasts flipping back and forth between 37-50f in Eastern Pa.

Smellytele · Feb 19, 2015

BenedictGomez said:
My "Go/No-Go" Vermont decision for next weekend will have to be made via tonight's 00z runs. Saturday looks fine, but Friday is dicey.

By dicey Friday you mean...

BenedictGomez · Feb 19, 2015

Siliconebobsquarepants said:
So I guess Pa is Doomed as usual ?
I've seen some forecasts flipping back and forth between 37-50f in Eastern Pa.

It's much better than it looked yesterday. If the cold & south trend were to continue (big if) it might even be snow, but either way it no longer appears to be a drenching rain. It's not going to be anywhere near 50f.

Smellytele said:
By dicey Friday you mean...

Ski day ambient temps in n.VT of probably something like -5 to a high of 5. Without any wind, should be tolerable. Throw wind into the mix, or any move lower from there and it's just not worth the long drive from New Jersey to ski in perceived -20s (or worse) temps.

BenedictGomez · Feb 19, 2015

Worth mentioning next Wednesday if only to dream.

The Euro shows a big New England snowstorm for next Wednesday.
The Canadian has the storm too, but it's OTS.
The Japanese model has a storm too, but a bit off the coast.
The American model is in right field humming Simon & Garfunkel tunes.

catsup948 · Feb 19, 2015

Euro has done a good job sniffing out these larger threats. It hasn't handled the details in the end well.

catsup948 · Feb 20, 2015

Euro still loving the huge coastal for Wednesday. GFS says "what coastal?"

catsup948 · Feb 21, 2015

Euro and GFS show a fairly robust system next weekend. Both are very different. 196 hours so it's nothing to hang your hat on yet.

xwhaler · Feb 21, 2015

catsup948 said:
Euro and GFS show a fairly robust system next weekend. Both are very different. 196 hours so it's nothing to hang your hat on yet.

Yes please!! In NVT all wknd. Bring it up there!!

Boston Bulldog · Feb 21, 2015

BTW the GFS has been kicking ass this year ever since the blizzard. The upgrade really did work.

The EURO has been dethroned.

moresnow · Feb 21, 2015

Boston Bulldog said:
BTW the GFS has been kicking ass this year ever since the blizzard. The upgrade really did work.

The EURO has been dethroned.

Then there is this take on it:
http://www.economist.com/news/scien...talk-about-weather-more-americans-do-they-are

BenedictGomez · Feb 21, 2015

It doesn't seem to me that there's been any clear cut winner this year between the Canadian, US, and European models. They've all had wins. Does seem most professionals still lean on the Euro though, even if its' advantage has lessened.

BenedictGomez · Feb 22, 2015

Numerous mets are talking about a possible pattern change upcoming that would lose all this arctic air we've been experiencing and lead to at least a few early March days that could hit as high as 60 in NJ, 50s in s.NE and 40s in N.NE. Still 9 or 10 days out, so lets hope it doesnt happen.

billski · Feb 22, 2015

BenedictGomez said:
Numerous mets are talking about a possible pattern change upcoming that would lose all this arctic air we've been experiencing and lead to at least a few early March days that could hit as high as 60 in NJ, 50s in s.NE and 40s in N.NE. Still 9 or 10 days out, so lets hope it doesnt happen.

:uzi:BG, I'm going to report you for obscene posts. I've never heard more filthy, repugnant language in my life! I sentence you 40 runs on Besser bindings with straps!

Quietman · Feb 22, 2015

I know that it may not make me popular, but I really enjoyed a slightly above 32 degree sunny day on the slopes today. It has been fricking cold for a long time. The weather stations are calling this stretch of weather as historic(I hate that), but 30 days of below freezing temps and 73" of snow in 4 weeks at my house is unmatched in the last 30 years.

4aprice · Feb 23, 2015

BenedictGomez said:
Numerous mets are talking about a possible pattern change upcoming that would lose all this arctic air we've been experiencing and lead to at least a few early March days that could hit as high as 60 in NJ, 50s in s.NE and 40s in N.NE. Still 9 or 10 days out, so lets hope it doesnt happen.

This is interesting but its something that has got to be expected at some point. The NAO despite some forecasts has so far refused to go negative (JB showed a forecast that said it would but I just looked and that has changed). We've had quite the run and I would expect it to snap back the other way big time. Sometimes pattern changes come about with big storms (ex Superstorm 93 changed the pattern). That's my biggest hope. Hopefully a slow melt out and lots of spring skiing. I do look forward to the warmth and sun and being in the mountains.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

snoseek · Feb 23, 2015

We got a pattern change out in the Sierra....went from hot and dry to cold and dry. Now the mountain and all its cornices, chutes and steep tree lines are a solid block of ice. Can't. Fucking. Win.

Looking forward to spring skiing slushy bumps back east when this abortion of a ski season finally comes to an end.

Edit, I was curious and looked up YTD snowfalls in our area. under 150 inches at Kirkwood. 64 inches at heavenly. Most of it fell back in December so with highs in the 40's and 50 everyday for over six weeks its mostly long gone. I've yet to shovel once down at lake level....it is BAD

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