2014-2015 Winter Forecast (here we go)

skiNEwhere · Aug 27, 2014

This is a great article https://opensnow.com/news/post/another-snow-forecast-for-the-2014-2015-winter

They actually went back and looked at the prediction for the 13/14 season and compared it to the results. Obviously, take these forecasts with a grain of salt.

jack97 · Aug 27, 2014

^^^

The blogger uses analogs to forecast as well. From the comment section where the blogger replied to someone...

Jeff - you're talking about looking at historical trends in major climate and ocean patterns to help forecast the future weather. For others reading this comment, that's called an "analog" technique because you look in the past for similar years (analogs) and then try to match those past years to the current year. Once you do that, you see what happened in the past and infer that the same thing will happen in the future.
The key to this technique is picking which historical years to use, and that's not an easy call. Joe Bastardi (formerly of Accuweather, now of Weatherbell.com) and his colleague Joe D'Aleo do very good work here, and I've learned a lot by following them on Weatherbell.com. But they aren't perfect, because if they were, they'd be very wealthy and in charge of a large company.
I've looked a bit at analog years for weak to moderate El Ninos with a warm PDO (temperature of the north Pacific Ocean) and a neutral to warm AMO (temperature of the Atlantic Ocean). There are some trends that I hope to tease out, but there's no slam dunk snow forecast for much of the western US.

skiNEwhere · Aug 27, 2014

No matter how you look at it, it seems like Colorado is going to have an average year.

ScottySkis · Aug 27, 2014

skiNEwhere said:
No matter how you look at it, it seems like Colorado is going to have an average year.

You know the truth is as much as we all want to believe it will snow more then ave any where a hill that offers skiing and snowboarding other then a few weeks out for low and high presure their is no way of knowing what will happen so when it snows go have lots of fun.

jack97 · Aug 28, 2014

skiNEwhere said:
No matter how you look at it, it seems like Colorado is going to have an average year.

From another site.... if the weak el nino occurs in the winter. Mid to south Ca might be in line for some "unprecedented" mud slides given the present drought conditions.

Their forecast is based on analogs going back to 1950

http://weatheradvance.com/category/northeast/

scroll down to see there forecast for snow.

Abubob · Aug 28, 2014

ScottySkis said:
You know the truth is as much as we all want to believe it will snow more then ave any where a hill that offers skiing and snowboarding other then a few weeks out for low and high presure their is no way of knowing what will happen so when it snows go have lots of fun.

Yer missin the point my Scottish. We NEED to KNOW!! :dontknow:

This chart shows exactly how much snow we're gonna get: :spin:

Not Sure · Sep 1, 2014

http://www.weathertrends360.com/Blo...Forecasting-The-2014-2015-Winter-Outlook-1935
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGO3IXzDuaw&list=UUsMKmEuaig0VWvAbeJnylWQ

Not quite as optimistic as I would like .

dlague · Sep 2, 2014

Siliconebobsquarepants said:
http://www.weathertrends360.com/Blo...Forecasting-The-2014-2015-Winter-Outlook-1935
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGO3IXzDuaw&list=UUsMKmEuaig0VWvAbeJnylWQ

Not quite as optimistic as I would like .

Yup That one was looking pretty Average!

BenedictGomez · Sep 28, 2014

Getting back to Siberian snow, I read tonight on a FB post of a weather guy I follow that there is ALREADY an unusually large portion of the area covered in early season snow. Fingers crossed.

MadMadWorld · Sep 29, 2014

Coming from a guy that knows nothing about weather.....is there any correlation between Atlantic hurricane season and winter weather? For example, it was a very quiet hurricane season in 92 (with the exception of Andrew) and the 92-93 ski season was epic.

BenedictGomez · Oct 15, 2014

Crappuweather is first up this year, releasing their winter prediction today. Predicting a very snowy and cold northeastern winter.

After record-shattering temperatures and high snow totals last winter in the Northeast, a similar theme will continue into the 2014-2015 season. Cold air will surge into the Northeast in late November, but the brunt of the season will hold off until January and February. The polar vortex, the culprit responsible for several days of below-zero temperatures last year, will slip down into the region from time to time, delivering blasts of arctic air. "I think, primarily, we'll see that happening in mid-January into February but again, it's not going to be the same type of situation as we saw last year, not as persistent," AccuWeather.com Expert Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said. "The cold of last season was extreme because it was so persistent. We saw readings that we haven't seen in a long time: 15- to 20-below-zero readings." In addition to the cold air, a big snow season could be in the offing. Higher-than-normal snow totals are forecast west of the I-95 corridor. "Places like Harrisburg, down to Hagerstown getting into the mountains, the Appalachians, I think that's where you're going to see your bigger, heavier amounts," Pastelok said. Philadelphia, which received a whopping 68.9 inches last season, is forecast to close this season with snow totals just above normal. New York City will likely follow suit. The I-95 corridor and eastward could fall victim to changeover systems, which will provide a messy wintry mix at times.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-2014-2015-winter-forecast/35422753

St. Bear · Oct 16, 2014

WeatherWorks
http://www.weatherworksinc.com/winter-outlook-2014-2015

dlague · Oct 16, 2014

St. Bear said:
WeatherWorks
http://www.weatherworksinc.com/winter-outlook-2014-2015

Hope this holds true! Not liking this warm weather!

fbrissette · Oct 16, 2014

dlague said:
Hope this holds true! Not liking this warm weather!

Won't last. They're calling for light snow Sunday at Jay.

Puck it · Oct 16, 2014

fbrissette said:
Won't last. They're calling for light snow Sunday at Jay.

Too bad it is not colder and the hurricane was a bit closer like the event in '05 with Wilma.

skiberg · Oct 16, 2014

WeatherWorks
http://www.weatherworksinc.com/winter-outlook-2014-2015

That link was helpful and certainly keep the optimism up.
"These years include 1976-77, 1977-78, and 1993-94. Supporting the cold is an overall negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) this October, which is expected to continue through much of the upcoming winter"

This I what I was looking for. Negative NAO is the goods for us.

skiberg · Oct 16, 2014

I skied after that storm at wildcat. It was crazy, at the bottom of the hill some trees still were holding and shedding leaves and they had fallen on top of the snow. When you skied through them they whooshed up behind you like a car on a NE road in autumn. Very surreal.

Quietman · Oct 16, 2014

Not wanting to rain on the parade, but the Climate Prediction Center (NOAA) forecast that was released today is predicting this

St. Bear · Oct 16, 2014

Have no fear. This was their outlook last year.

dlague · Oct 16, 2014

Quietman said:
Not wanting to rain on the parade, but the Climate Prediction Center (NWS) forecast that was released today is predicting this

View attachment 14036

View attachment 14037

Not buying that one! Warmer than normal north and cooler south? That is a weird pattern.

2014-2015 Winter Forecast (here we go)

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