• Welcome to AlpineZone, the largest online community of skiers and snowboarders in the Northeast!

    You may have to REGISTER before you can post. Registering is FREE, gets rid of the majority of advertisements, and lets you participate in giveaways and other AlpineZone events!

2014-2015 Winter Forecast (here we go)

BenedictGomez

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 26, 2011
Messages
12,182
Points
113
Location
Wasatch Back
GFS op isn't showing a warm up in the long range.

Yes it is.

Four straight days (which is as far out as I can go without switching to the climate models so it may well be more than 4 days in a row) with > 32 high temps, even up to Canada.

gfs_T2m_us_53.png


Fortunately, however, the collective members are colder. A 12 to 27 degree temp discrepancy is pretty dramatic, so the op showing a warmup is most likely an outlier.

gfs-ens_T2m_us_65.png
 
Last edited:

dlague

Active member
Joined
Nov 7, 2012
Messages
8,792
Points
36
Location
CS, Colorado
GFS op isn't showing a warm up in the long range. But it's the long range.

Yes it is.

Four straight days (which is as far out as I can go without switching to the climate models so it may well be more than 4 days in a row) with > 32 high temps, even up to Canada.

gfs_T2m_us_53.png

Technically it is trending cooler than average with a few days here and there above average. But there are no scorchers identified as of yet - that can all change. The long range forecast was discussed a week or two ago. In any case the sun is getting stronger - so.....
 

catsup948

New member
Joined
Dec 6, 2007
Messages
1,026
Points
0
Location
Shelburne Falls, MA
Yes it is.

Four straight days (which is as far out as I can go without switching to the climate models so it may well be more than 4 days in a row) with > 32 high temps, even up to Canada.

gfs_T2m_us_53.png


Fortunately, however, the collective members are colder. A 12 to 27 degree temp discrepancy is pretty dramatic, so the op showing a warmup is most likely an outlier.

gfs-ens_T2m_us_65.png

Sorry! Changed it. I meant to write is.... End of the op run is very warm.
 

BenedictGomez

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 26, 2011
Messages
12,182
Points
113
Location
Wasatch Back
As long at any big warm up holds off until like 3/17 I'm good!

That's too early, I want to be skiing trees in n.VT in early April. On that note, it does seem like the extended models are backing off on the warmth slightly. This has been a trend for much of the winter. See the warmth? Andddd it's gone.
 

catsup948

New member
Joined
Dec 6, 2007
Messages
1,026
Points
0
Location
Shelburne Falls, MA
That's too early, I want to be skiing trees in n.VT in early April. On that note, it does seem like the extended models are backing off on the warmth slightly. This has been a trend for much of the winter. See the warmth? Andddd it's gone.

Yes it's really been doing that all winter. I would think at some point northern New England will get one last decent winter stretch. Its not often they go quietly into the night.
 

4aprice

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 14, 2008
Messages
3,908
Points
63
Location
Lake Hopatcong, NJ and Granby Co
Yes it's really been doing that all winter. I would think at some point northern New England will get one last decent winter stretch. Its not often they go quietly into the night.

Joe Bastardi in his weekly video is calling it a "false spring". 10 day warm up and then more cold relative to normal. The woods last year survived into the 3rd week in April (at least at K they did) so I don't think it will shut down much. It's actually going to feel nice not to have to dress super cold this weekend.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ
 

BenedictGomez

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 26, 2011
Messages
12,182
Points
113
Location
Wasatch Back
Joe Bastardi in his weekly video is calling it a "false spring". 10 day warm up and then more cold relative to normal. The woods last year survived into the 3rd week in April (at least at K they did) so I don't think it will shut down much. It's actually going to feel nice not to have to dress super cold this weekend.

True enough, I just hope it doesn't freeze everything. I skied at Sugarbush last year right after a warmup/freeze while there was still tons of snow, and it made the woods kind of hard and glazey'.
 

hammer

Active member
Joined
Apr 28, 2004
Messages
5,493
Points
38
Location
flatlands of Mass.
True enough, I just hope it doesn't freeze everything. I skied at Sugarbush last year right after a warmup/freeze while there was still tons of snow, and it made the woods kind of hard and glazey'.
Once that happens I actually want a warm-up during the day. Soft snow in the glades isn't as good as powder but it's better than the alternative.
 

bdfreetuna

New member
Joined
Jan 12, 2012
Messages
4,300
Points
0
Location
keep the faith
True enough, I just hope it doesn't freeze everything. I skied at Sugarbush last year right after a warmup/freeze while there was still tons of snow, and it made the woods kind of hard and glazey'.

If the woods get hard and glazey they might actually last a bit longer. Especially when (hopefully) some fresh snow falls on top of it in the next few weeks. Southern VT already has a layer of "hard and glazey" under the February snow which gives them a little extra thaw insurance.
 

BenedictGomez

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 26, 2011
Messages
12,182
Points
113
Location
Wasatch Back
If the woods get hard and glazey they might actually last a bit longer. Especially when (hopefully) some fresh snow falls on top of it in the next few weeks.

And that's exactly what happened, so it can ultimately be a good thing. It's just not optimal if you happen to there on the hard and glazey day.
 

catsup948

New member
Joined
Dec 6, 2007
Messages
1,026
Points
0
Location
Shelburne Falls, MA
Looks warmer next week. Though it doesn't seem like it will be all that far from average. High 30's low 40's here with maybe a day later in the week closer to 50. 40 is the average high here. My concern is it warms up enough that later next week things refreeze right when I'm arriving in central vermont. Give me corn or give me winter. Nothing in between. :thumbdown:
 

dlague

Active member
Joined
Nov 7, 2012
Messages
8,792
Points
36
Location
CS, Colorado
Looks warmer next week. Though it doesn't seem like it will be all that far from average. High 30's low 40's here with maybe a day later in the week closer to 50. 40 is the average high here. My concern is it warms up enough that later next week things refreeze right when I'm arriving in central vermont. Give me corn or give me winter. Nothing in between. :thumbdown:

Yup refreeze sucks!
 
Top