2014-2015 Winter Forecast (here we go)

catsup948 · Mar 25, 2015

BenedictGomez said:
It's ballsy-aggressive, but it's possible.

This is where I was commenting there's good potential IF the models come in colder. He must either believe that happens OR he sees something atmospherically that suggests better dynamics than the models are picking up on (better timing, colder, lingering, etc..).

Frankly, if you just look at the models, Monday/Tuesday looks better for snow than Friday/Saturday.

Here's the GFS output through mid-day Tuesday, verbatim to the model most of this is on Monday.

The pattern is energetic and wet, this is the reason I booked a week in northern Vermont for this timeframe, the writing has been on the wall for several weeks now that later March / early April have really special potential. Crossing fingers and toes it pans out. Currenly have Smuggs, Jay, Stowe, and MRG on the itinerary!

I agree with you. It has potential to snow a lot Friday but it's such a thin line. Monday looks pretty good too.

Jcb890 · Mar 25, 2015

Even as far up as Jay Peak, highs for Thursday are are like 45*. How is it possibly going to be all snow with temps near 50?

fbrissette · Mar 25, 2015

Jcb890 said:
Even as far up as Jay Peak, highs for Thursday are are like 45*. How is it possibly going to be all snow with temps near 50?

Gotta be careful where you get your forecasts. Many forecasts are closest-city and do not take into account specific mountain elevations.

This one for example has Jay Peak base mostly below freezing except for a brief stint early Thursday.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Jay-Peak/6day/mid

chuckstah · Mar 25, 2015

Light sleet just started in S New Hampshire. Temp is still around 40.

BenedictGomez · Mar 26, 2015

Still liking the long-term in terms of the next week. Fingers crossed. Hopefully places like Smuggs and Jay Peak can pick up something like 5" to 7" from this. Then there are several other shots on goal during the next week.

j law · Mar 26, 2015

I wonder if I could get a "pass" from the wife next saturday if the snow holds like you're saying...

catsup948 · Mar 26, 2015

Bright sunshine here! Berkshire East closed today.

bdfreetuna · Mar 26, 2015

catsup948 said:
Bright sunshine here! Berkshire East closed today.

Really? Overcast in Williamsburg. Did we manage to dodge a rain event?

VTKilarney · Mar 26, 2015

Raining here in northeastern Vermont, but not hard at all.

VTKilarney · Mar 26, 2015

Rain is now steady and of medium intensity.

catsup948 · Mar 26, 2015

bdfreetuna said:
Really? Overcast in Williamsburg. Did we manage to dodge a rain event?

Nope. Raining now! NWS has us flipping to a little snow overnight. Less than .5 inch though.

BenedictGomez · Mar 26, 2015

Lets see what we can collectively glean from today:

Tim Kelley noted the r/s line was at approximately 2,500 feet today at Stowe, and a few inches of new snow at top, but that it rained hard at the base enough to cost snow.

Smuggs makes no mention of rain, though it must have given the close proximity to Stowe, and claims 2" of new snow today. I do see they actually opened a few trails that had been previously closed.

Jay Peak mentioned it rained briefly, but that they've picked up a few inches as well.

A quick look at the radar shows temps dropping, and if it's not snowing up & down the spine, it will be soon.

All-in-all, I'd say this was about as good as we could have hoped for.

BenedictGomez · Mar 26, 2015

18z GFS coming in with more snow on the spine tonight that previously modeled, pointing to 4" to 6".

This is just 7pm tonight to 7pm tomorrow on the GFS.

NAM s similar but sees a bit less, 3" to 4"

Jcb890 · Mar 26, 2015

Is S. VT going to get some decent snowfall out of this? Looks like a possibility!

VTKilarney · Mar 27, 2015

No new snow here in town. This storm is definitely an elevation play.

catsup948 · Mar 27, 2015

Mixed reports this am from Killington north. Killington reporting nada, Jay 2-4 and sugarbush 6 inches at the summit.

xwhaler · Mar 27, 2015

Bolton reporting 5", Smuggs 2", MRG 4"
Saddleback 3"
Cannon 6"

BenedictGomez · Mar 27, 2015

Overnight snow didn't pan out as much as it had looked, but the good news is that neither did yesterday's rain.

All-in-all that's a win.

VTKilarney · Mar 27, 2015

Burke is reporting 3 inches. That must be at the summit.

ScottySkis · Mar 28, 2015

When will spring conditions might happen for Adks and or Catskills maybe next weekend in April?

2014-2015 Winter Forecast (here we go)

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