2014-2015 Winter Forecast (here we go)

andrec10 · Nov 14, 2014

Tin said:
Where are you seeing that? The few places I visit show a system will give most of Vermont/NH/Maine and the Catskills rain ending as 2-4" of snow Monday-Tuesday and behind it some cold air with highs not getting above freezing. Make sure your edges are sharp.

I said the same thing to myself. Still will be plenty cold at night for snowmaking. As for the bumps....I don't like them as much as I used to.

BenedictGomez · Nov 14, 2014

Tin said:
Where are you seeing that?

After a cold week, it looks like much of the country will be warmer than normal by around the 22nd'ish. Even if that's true though, you'd hope VT/NH/DAX places could still make snow at night. Poconos & Cats, dunno. Hopefully the entire forecasts falls apart and it stays cold.

skiberg · Nov 14, 2014

Even if it warms up significantly, they are going to put a lot of snow down in the next 8-10 days and nights. Turkey day should be looking pretty good.

4aprice · Nov 14, 2014

BenedictGomez said:
After a cold week, it looks like much of the country will be warmer than normal by around the 22nd'ish. Even if that's true though, you'd hope VT/NH/DAX places could still make snow at night. Poconos & Cats, dunno. Hopefully the entire forecasts falls apart and it stays cold.

JB says not so fast.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong,NJ

catsup948 · Nov 15, 2014

Yeah warmup around Thanksgiving may not be so warm. Just a possible return to normal at the most.

jack97 · Nov 16, 2014

more snow porn. two long range forecast (or outlooks, for the people who get anal about this). all take into account the weak el nino and the siberian correlation. One agrees with jb that the analog is the 76-77 winter, not sure about others, back then chasing snow was the last thing on my mind.

http://www.ketv.com/weather/bills-winter-outlook/29694818

http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weat...nual-Long-Range-Winter-Outlook-282407431.html

BenedictGomez · Nov 16, 2014

catsup948 said:
Yeah warmup around Thanksgiving may not be so warm. Just a possible return to normal at the most.

Given how terrible the climate models have been so far, I guess that shouldn't be surprising. So much for the "warmer than normal November". NOAA's not just going to be wrong, but embarrassingly wrong.

Speaking of JB, here's his sons call for the minor snow event.

4aprice · Nov 16, 2014

^ That's optimistic. Tim Kelly on NECN was showing some snow but turning liquid all the way to Canada last night. The cold air will return however, maybe something late week too.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

BenedictGomez · Nov 17, 2014

4aprice said:
^ That's optimistic. Tim Kelly on NECN was showing some snow but turning liquid all the way to Canada last night. The cold air will return however, maybe something late week too.

DT actually called for generally more snow than that chart. Had some 5" to 6" bands up in n.VT

EDIT: Threw in another map.

Not Sure · Nov 17, 2014

catsup948 said:
Yeah warmup around Thanksgiving may not be so warm. Just a possible return to normal at the most.

After weekend warm up ,another cold shot behind , lets hope this is the January thaw in November

billski · Nov 17, 2014

Siliconebobsquarepants said:
lets hope this is the January thaw in November

Quote of the Month!

billski · Nov 17, 2014

BenedictGomez said:
Given how terrible the climate models have been so far,

Hey BG, I'm just getting back into this. The Euro hasn't been performing well recently????

catsup948 · Nov 17, 2014

Next 5 days and nights are prime for snowmaking! After that there may be a rollercoaster before winter finally comes.

BenedictGomez · Nov 18, 2014

billski said:
Hey BG, I'm just getting back into this. The Euro hasn't been performing well recently????

I was talking about the climate models from NOAA, which predicted a warmer than normal November just a few weeks ago. What happened? Well, it's likely we're going to have the coldest November in the US in years. It's pretty bad when your climate model predicts "warmer than normal" and just a few weeks later get near historical cold. At this point, the Chinese hacking might actually improve things.

The Euro though is showing the end of November might be pretty darn cold. So other than a few days warm-up it looks like we might quickly return to fantastic snow-making temps. This is for next Wednesday, look at that arctic shot punching away the warm air.

Rowsdower · Nov 20, 2014

BenedictGomez said:
I was talking about the climate models from NOAA, which predicted a warmer than normal November just a few weeks ago. What happened? Well, it's likely we're going to have the coldest November in the US in years. It's pretty bad when your climate model predicts "warmer than normal" and just a few weeks later get near historical cold. At this point, the Chinese hacking might actually improve things.

The Euro though is showing the end of November might be pretty darn cold. So other than a few days warm-up it looks like we might quickly return to fantastic snow-making temps. This is for next Wednesday, look at that arctic shot punching away the warm air.

I don't think those are the systems used for climate modeling. Near-term weather forecasting is not the same as climate modeling. Besides, apart from this last week its not been unseasonably cold, at least not here in New Jersey, and next week looks much much warmer going into December. I also don't know how that stacks up globally. I wouldn't extrapolate a cold snap in the NE to global temp changes until all the numbers are in.

BenedictGomez · Nov 21, 2014

Rowsdower said:
I don't think those are the systems used for climate modeling. Near-term weather forecasting is not the same as climate modeling. Besides, apart from this last week its not been unseasonably cold, at least not here in New Jersey, and next week looks much much warmer going into December. I also don't know how that stacks up globally. I wouldn't extrapolate a cold snap in the NE to global temp changes until all the numbers are in.

You're confusing several different things. NOAA's climate models did indeed in advance predict a "warmer than normal" November, and this is anything but. And yes, it has been unseasonably cold here in New Jersey, our temps should be in the high 50s to low 60s early on, then mid 50s, then low 50s at the end of the month. Our actual data has been way below that, in contrast to NOAA's forecast. If you search online, you can find plenty of sarcasm regarding how badly NOAA busted. Lastly, we're not going to be "much warmer going into December", which you're going to soon realize on Wednesday. Thankfully.

buellski · Nov 24, 2014

Love him or hate him, he's bullish on this winter.

http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/

BenedictGomez · Nov 24, 2014

buellski said:
Love him or hate him, he's bullish on this winter.

http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/

Pretty much everyone is bullish on this winter. :daffy:

I am personally not a big fan of his page, though I do read it. IMO, I think he's WAY overly optimistic, especially and curiously around holiday periods. Which leads me to believe that his analysis is not entirely without bias.

gostan · Nov 26, 2014

He has to be optimistic in order for his home hill of MRG to open. I enjoy reading Josh's weekly forecasts, but I would have to go to meteorology school in order to comprehend his recent seasonal forecast.

BenedictGomez · Dec 3, 2014

The next potential shot on goal has arrived.

All models except for the crappy US government's model have some form of snow in or around the ne for this timeframe, so it may just pan out.

2014-2015 Winter Forecast (here we go)

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