• Welcome to AlpineZone, the largest online community of skiers and snowboarders in the Northeast!

    You may have to REGISTER before you can post. Registering is FREE, gets rid of the majority of advertisements, and lets you participate in giveaways and other AlpineZone events!

Summer/Fall as an indicator of Winter

VTKilarney

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 5, 2014
Messages
5,552
Points
63
Location
VT NEK
Is there any correlation between summer and/or fall temperatures and temperatures for the following winter?

Does a cooler summer generally result in a cooler winter, or do things tend to average out and the winters tend to be warmer? Or is there no correlation at all?
 

deadheadskier

Moderator
Staff member
Moderator
Joined
Mar 6, 2005
Messages
27,906
Points
113
Location
Southeast NH
No one can predict the weather accurately two weeks from now. So, I'm going with no. Whatever weather we are experiencing this Summer has zero predictable affect on what we will experience next Winter.

We could have an epic ski season weather wise, we could have a bad season.

No one knows the answer. And if they say they do, they either have a huge ego or like to gamble. The science just isn't there; at least from what I've witnessed from almost 39 trips around the sun.
 

jack97

New member
Joined
Mar 4, 2006
Messages
2,513
Points
0
Some have forecasted that the same jet stream pattern which has made last winter cold and this summer cool will still persist for the upcoming winter season.
 

dlague

Active member
Joined
Nov 7, 2012
Messages
8,792
Points
36
Location
CS, Colorado
Some have forecasted that the same jet stream pattern which has made last winter cold and this summer cool will still persist for the upcoming winter season.

Can you remove the wet January? Or maybe it will be colder so that precip will be snow - that would rock!
 

jack97

New member
Joined
Mar 4, 2006
Messages
2,513
Points
0
Can you remove the wet January? Or maybe it will be colder so that precip will be snow - that would rock!

haha.... If I believe in AGW then I can alter the CO2 knob to control what type of Janurary we will get.

ok, sarcasm off. Here's a paywall paper which shows correlation of solar forcing and the change in pattern of the jet stream. Hmmm.....solar physicist have stated the sun was most active in the 1990s and now the sun is going dormant. In addition, the present sun activity is lower than any of them have observed in their lives. Wondering what that will mean.

Quasi-biennial oscillation and solar cycle influences on winter Arctic total ozone
 
Last edited:

dlague

Active member
Joined
Nov 7, 2012
Messages
8,792
Points
36
Location
CS, Colorado
haha.... If I believe in AGW then I can alter the CO2 knob to control what type of Janurary we will get.

ok, sarcasm off. Here's a paywall paper which shows correlation of solar forcing and the change in pattern of the jet stream. Hmmm.....solar physicist have stated the sun was most active in the 1990s and now the sun is going dormant. In addition, the present sun activity is lower than any of them have observed in their lives. Wondering what that will mean.

Quasi-biennial oscillation and solar cycle influences on winter Arctic total ozone

Works for me!


.......
 

yeggous

Active member
Joined
Oct 8, 2012
Messages
2,170
Points
36
Location
Eagle, CO
It depends where you are. There is a strong El Niño correlation on the west coast. Not so much in New England.

Some people will invoke the October snowfall in Siberia argument though.


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone
 

dlague

Active member
Joined
Nov 7, 2012
Messages
8,792
Points
36
Location
CS, Colorado
From what I see this far it also drives the jet stream. Maybe I overly optimistic!


.......
 

ScottySkis

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 16, 2011
Messages
12,294
Points
48
Location
Middletown NY
The summer that never was in the summer of2014 hoping means the strong winter of 14/15 to be an epic winter for north east.
 

Nick

Administrator
Staff member
Administrator
Joined
Nov 12, 2010
Messages
13,176
Points
48
Location
Bradenton, FL
Website
www.alpinezone.com
I think this summer wasn't really oppressively hot like some years. Overall it was pretty mild and I feel like the recent cool down came pretty quick
 

BenedictGomez

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 26, 2011
Messages
12,107
Points
113
Location
Wasatch Back
It depends where you are. There is a strong El Niño correlation on the west coast. Not so much in New England.

Some people will invoke the October snowfall in Siberia argument though.

Me. In general, climatologists, meteorologists, and gypsies dont know much about the weather. Human beings are simply not an advanced enough species (yet) to accurately predict weather in the long-term. There is, however, a statistically significant correlation between eastern winters and Siberian snowpack in the fall, even if scientists arent sure why.
 

jack97

New member
Joined
Mar 4, 2006
Messages
2,513
Points
0
^^^


attachment.php



The blog is on this site,
nc_state blog on forecasting
 
Last edited:
Top