Oil nearly falls below $80 on oversupply

BenedictGomez · Oct 29, 2014

HowieT2 said:
while Bg is applauding the extra 3b added to the nj operating budget, his property value are being negatively effected for long time.

Huh? The fact that oodles of people are "fleeing" from New Jersey certainly isn't because of the fact a very small number of New Jerseyans have to sit on a track for 8 additional minutes per ride. It's because of the high taxes, the high cost of living, and our state government's execution by firing squad of businesses.

And the last thing I'd do right now is buy a house anyway, because there's going to be a "Housing Crash part 2". I currently rent a very nice property at a rate that is currently significantly less than the cost of home ownership.* I'll buy someday, but it likely wont be in New Jersey, and it will definitely be after "Son of Housing Bubble" bursts.

*That example demonstrates just how expensive NJ is, depending on where you are, renting is often cheaper than owning. That's an inversion that shouldn't occur.

Smellytele said:
Mass has talked about actually taxing people by how many miles they drive to pay for roads which does not play into this thinking well at all.

That has more to do with trying to make people drive less, because ideologically they hate gas, because they believe Global Warming is "killing the planet", than it does with a sound financial planning policy to maintain roads.

VTKilarney · Oct 29, 2014

I definitely agree that the housing market is sitting on a powder keg right now - and that the recent "correction" was not enough of a correction to negate that powder keg.

steamboat1 · Oct 29, 2014

Bought my house almost 30 years ago & it has increased in value 5X's what I paid. That would have to be a pretty big correction to wipe out that appreciation in value. Besides the houses in my area didn't decrease in value even after the last housing bubble. The rate of increase has slowed though.

Puck it · Oct 29, 2014

Since we are so far off topic. I don't get how EBT cards can buy gas. Burns my ass.

VTKilarney · Oct 29, 2014

steamboat1 said:
Bought my house almost 30 years ago & it has increased in value 5X's what I paid. That would have to be a pretty big correction to wipe out that appreciation in value. Besides the houses in my area didn't decrease in value even after the last housing bubble. The rate of increase has slowed though.

I don't think anyone is suggesting that a house purchased 30 years ago is going to be worth less than the purchase price if there is another bubble that bursts.

A correction is about returning to normal - and for housing the "normal" is an increase in value over time. The average increase is just a lot less than people think.

BenedictGomez · Oct 29, 2014

VTKilarney said:
I definitely agree that the housing market is sitting on a powder keg right now - and that the recent "correction" was not enough of a correction to negate that powder keg.

Yup. Economic fundamentals do not support current US home prices. You can only play a multi-cup shell game for so long before someone eventually finds the peanut.

VTKilarney said:
I don't think anyone is suggesting that a house purchased 30 years ago is going to be worth less than the purchase price if there is another bubble that bursts.

Right. Not even close. But in a way, that is a fairly decent part of the problem.

Americans have culturally grown to believe that "houses always increase in value", because they have in this country for so many years. Its been a helluva run, but the truth is, a house is simply an asset, subject to supply & demand, speculation, and price swings like other assets.

VTKilarney · Oct 29, 2014

BenedictGomez said:
Yup. Economic fundamentals do not support current US home prices. You can only play a multi-cup shell game for so long before someone eventually finds the peanut.

Watch what happens if interest rates go up - and when they are at historic lows one can't ignore that risk.

BenedictGomez · Oct 29, 2014

Puck it said:
Since we are so far off topic. I don't get how EBT cards can buy gas. Burns my ass.

Live in Manhattan for a few years and watch them trade them like baseball cards for cigarettes and beer, or for money, etc.... That'll really burn your ass. They're also frequently living in larger sq/ft subsidized apartments that taxpayers are paying for, in the same uber-expensive zip code that you live in, while you're working your ass off paying approximately $2,000 to $3,000 per month in rent for a shoebox. Makes sense.

VTKilarney said:
Watch what happens if interest rates go up - and when they are at historic lows one can't ignore that risk.

It's been put off for so long that I'm increasingly thinking that out of fear, meaningful interest rate increases aren't going to happen until a new president is elected (i.e. let the potential pain & suffering occur when someone else is in office).

Rowsdower · Oct 29, 2014

BenedictGomez said:
Huh? The fact that oodles of people are "fleeing" from New Jersey

Just to be clear, New Jersey's population is increasing. There's a lot of people leaving, but they're replaced at a faster rate.

Domeskier · Oct 29, 2014

Rowsdower said:
Just to be clear, New Jersey's population is increasing. There's a lot of people leaving, but they're replaced at a faster rate.

Well clearly those people are just poor people who don't pay taxes or own property and are just looking to cash in on the forced reallocation of income from the hard working people of NJ who are all fleeing to eastern Pennsylvania.

mister moose · Oct 29, 2014

Rowsdower said:
Just to be clear, New Jersey's population is increasing. There's a lot of people leaving, but they're replaced at a faster rate.

Just to be clear, one frog in the water on the stove said to the other, "The water isn't hot, it's warm". Here in CT we gained some population too, but lost a congressional seat because other states gained more. We are losing the young who leave to find a job, and the retirees who leave to escape the taxes. That talent and money isn't being replaced. Enjoy your warm water until it boils.

BenedictGomez · Oct 29, 2014

Rowsdower said:
Just to be clear, New Jersey's population is increasing. There's a lot of people leaving, but they're replaced at a faster rate.

Partially correct. You're right, New Jersey is growing, barely (< 1%). But I'm talking about immigration/emigration here, people coming and going, not natural increase. There are very few places in all of America that are literally decreasing in total number when you add up immigration/emigration + natural increase/decrease.

Domeskier said:
Well clearly those people are just poor people who don't pay taxes or own property and are just looking to cash in on the forced reallocation of income from the hard working people of NJ who are all fleeing to eastern Pennsylvania.

100% sarcastic though your comment was, there's far more economic truth to it than you realize (though the latter half makes no sense).

If you stratify the immigration/emigration by wealth, wealth is leaving New Jersey, big time, and it's greatly adding to the state's "Death Spiral" from a dwindling tax base.

mister moose said:
Just to be clear, one frog in the water on the stove said to the other, "The water isn't hot, it's warm". Here in CT we gained some population too, but lost a congressional seat because other states gained more. We are losing the young who leave to find a job, and the retirees who leave to escape the taxes. That talent and money isn't being replaced. Enjoy your warm water until it boils.

This is correct too, and more akin to what I'm saying. As I mentioned, pretty much EVERYWHERE is growing if you look at it from BOTH the standpoint of natural growth & immigration/emigration, but some are barely growing. That map I posted before does a great job of showing who's "losing money" and who's "gaining money".

bobbutts · Oct 29, 2014

BenedictGomez said:
Live in Manhattan for a few years and watch them trade them like baseball cards for cigarettes and beer, or for money, etc.... That'll really burn your ass. They're also frequently living in larger sq/ft subsidized apartments that taxpayers are paying for, in the same uber-expensive zip code that you live in, while you're working your ass off paying approximately $2,000 to $3,000 per month in rent for a shoebox. Makes sense.

It's been put off for so long that I'm increasingly thinking that out of fear, meaningful interest rate increases aren't going to happen until a new president is elected (i.e. let the potential pain & suffering occur when someone else is in office).

How I am not surprised that you paint yourself as a victim of the social safety net. You are predictable if nothing else, spewing every scummy right wing tactic.

Rowsdower · Oct 29, 2014

mister moose said:
Just to be clear, one frog in the water on the stove said to the other, "The water isn't hot, it's warm". Here in CT we gained some population too, but lost a congressional seat because other states gained more. We are losing the young who leave to find a job, and the retirees who leave to escape the taxes. That talent and money isn't being replaced. Enjoy your warm water until it boils.

Hardly. The NYC metro is a massive jobs engine. It's simply too desirable an area to be in, so you can have ridiculous taxes and terribly inefficient public services yet still get increasing population simply because if you work in the NYC metro where else are you going to live?

Scruffy · Oct 29, 2014

Rowsdower said:
Hardly. The NYC metro is a massive jobs engine. It's simply too desirable an area to be in, so you can have ridiculous taxes and terribly inefficient public services yet still get increasing population simply because if you work in the NYC metro where else are you going to live?

Exactly, all real estate is local. While real estate is over heating again in some areas ( 2nd bubble ), it is still plummeting in other areas of the country. You can spend more for a new econo car than a house in some locals of this country.

VTKilarney · Oct 29, 2014

Scruffy said:
You can spend more for a new econo car than a house in some locals of this country.

Detroit, anyone?

BenedictGomez · Oct 29, 2014

bobbutts said:
How I am not surprised that you paint yourself as a victim of the social safety net. You are predictable if nothing else, spewing every scummy right wing tactic.

Oh, look who showed up solely to toss about insults and as usual offer absolutely NVA to the discussion.

LOL at that interpretation of the "social safety net" though.

BenedictGomez · Oct 29, 2014

Scruffy said:
You can spend more for a new econo car than a house in some locals of this country.

VTKilarney said:
Detroit, anyone?

The most famous current example of the results of years upon years of irresponsible financial structure, bleeding corporations to death (literally), crazy taxes, and an insatiable appetite to spend money you don't have. RIP.

Tin · Oct 29, 2014

I think for the next big discussion we should discuss white privilege.

steamboat1 · Oct 30, 2014

bobbutts said:
How I am not surprised that you paint yourself as a victim of the social safety net. You are predictable if nothing else, spewing every scummy right wing tactic.

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Oil nearly falls below $80 on oversupply

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