Jan 4-5 Event

billski · Dec 29, 2014

Something could be brewing. Granted, it's six days away, this is worth watching

MID-ATLANTIC - Per WxRisk
"NOTIFICATION JAN 4-5 EAST COAST LOW... if it stays south IF... IF.. poses the threat of SNOW & ICE for Middle Atlantic region

Given how awful December has been with respect to winter weather lovers over the East Coast there are number reasons to be skeptical about this potential event. On the other hand to ignore this potential event and say nothing until it's only 48 or 60 hours away is NOT what WxRisk is about. There are plenty of examples of winters which seem to be going along quite snowless then a surprise event hits.

This image show with the surface map from the European model from early Monday morning look like. North of the white line the precipitation is snow but the low level cold air may be strong enough to allow for the potential of significant icing over large portions of Virginia and Maryland -- SEE PURPLE AREA."

billski · Dec 29, 2014

billski · Dec 29, 2014

Start at 8:30

billski · Dec 29, 2014

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/wx_maps/html/apcp_usbg_animation.html

steamboat1 · Dec 29, 2014

billski said:
Something could be brewing. Granted, it's six days away, this is worth watching

Let's hope so Billski. Would be perfect timing since the 5th is when my pass is not blacked out for the holiday anymore.

Not Sure · Dec 29, 2014

billski said:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/wx_maps/html/apcp_usbg_animation.html

Another something coming 360hrs too

catsup948 · Dec 29, 2014

I was reading there could be multiple chances next week. Cold will try to suppress everything and there is no blocking so we can't expect a massive storm in the pattern but the cold will be around. Over running systems with a heavy front end thump and a change to sleet/frz/rain could be in store for at least southern new england. Similar to last year the cold might be to much for these systems to move up into northern new england.

Smellytele · Dec 29, 2014

billski said:
Given how awful December has been with respect to winter weather lovers over the East Coast there are number reasons to be skeptical about this potential event.

The skiing had been great, some of the best December skiing until the 23rd.

mishka · Dec 29, 2014

Smellytele said:
The skiing had been great, some of the best December skiing until the 23rd.

+10

deadheadskier · Dec 29, 2014

Smellytele said:
The skiing had been great, some of the best December skiing until the 23rd.

+1. Great December

Not Sure · Dec 29, 2014

deadheadskier said:
+1. Great December

https://www.mountwashington.org/experience-the-weather/mount-washington-weather.aspx

57" so far , above avg.
I've been out more than usual at this time of year even for Pa.

catsup948 · Dec 29, 2014

December was pretty sweet until the rain. Still a great base just waiting for some more snow!

mriceyman · Dec 30, 2014

Another system that looks wet. Not good. Maybe luck will be on our side this time.

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ScottySkis · Dec 30, 2014

Smellytele said:
The skiing had been great, some of the best December skiing until the 23rd.

+420/.

ScottySkis · Dec 30, 2014

Catskills snow from this?

Tin · Dec 30, 2014

Things are looking good for Sunday....

bzrperfspec77 · Dec 30, 2014

Looks like I may be in the right spot this coming weekend! We were going to come home Sunday Morning but maybe not now...

xwhaler · Dec 30, 2014

I'm skiing somewhere on Sunday...how much and what form of precip falls will determine where I am.

billski · Dec 30, 2014

Don't get your hopes up too far. There is definitely precipitation coming. Why type it will take is very uncertain.

The below are valley forecasts. I think the mountains northward from Killington - Cranmore - Sunday Riverrds stand the best chance of staying all snow. Those places could see a noticeable snowfall.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
915 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2014

BOTH MODELS (GFS and ECMWF) SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A BURST OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT THEREAFTER PRECIP COULD BECOME MIXED GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. -

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
845 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2014

SNOW APPEARS MOST PROBABLE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH WARMER AIR RAPIDLY MOVING IN SUNDAY MORNING CHANGING SNOW TO
RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX. ...GIVEN THE STORM TRACK IT IS POSSIBLE
FOR SOME SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
600 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2014

I THINK THAT NORTHERN AREAS
ARE LIKELY TO SEE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT FROM THIS TRACK WITH
POSSIBLY SOME SLEET TOWARDS THE END. THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION
FROM SNOW...TO SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTH...BUT 5 DAYS OUT IT IS ANYONES GUESS WHERE THE MIXING WILL
BE AND ANY SHIFT IN THE TRACK WOULD DRASTICALLY CHANGE THE
FORECAST.

lstone84 · Dec 30, 2014

GFS, GFS parallel, Euro all show a storm for late weekend, hope it stays far enough south for all snow

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Jan 4-5 Event

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